Search results

Purchase conversion prediction aims to improve user experience and convert visitors into real buyers to drive sales of firms; however, the total conversion rate is low, especially for e-retailers. To date, little is known about how e-retailers can scientifically detect users' intents within a purchase conversion funnel during their ongoing sessions and strategically optimize real-time marketing tactics corresponding to dynamic intent states. This study mainly aims to detect a real-time state of the conversion funnel based on graph theory, which refers to a five-class classification problem in the overt real-time choice decisions (RTCDs)—click, tag-to-wishlist, add-to-cart, remove-from-cart and purchase—during an ongoing session.

The authors propose a novel graph-theoretic framework to detect different states of the conversion funnel by identifying a user's unobserved mindset revealed from their navigation process graph, namely clickstream graph. First, the raw clickstream data are identified into individual sessions based on a 30-min time-out heuristic approach. Then, the authors convert each session into a sequence of temporal item-level clickstream graphs and conduct a temporal graph feature engineering according to the basic, single-, dyadic- and triadic-node and global characteristics. Furthermore, the synthetic minority oversampling technique is adopted to address with the problem of classifying imbalanced data. Finally, the authors train and test the proposed approach with several popular artificial intelligence algorithms.

The graph-theoretic approach validates that users' latent intent states within the conversion funnel can be interpreted as time-varying natures of their online graph footprints. In particular, the experimental results indicate that the graph-theoretic feature-oriented models achieve a substantial improvement of over 27% in line with the macro-average and micro-average area under the precision-recall curve, as compared to the conventional ones. In addition, the top five informative graph features for RTCDs are found to be Transitivity, Edge, Node, Degree and Reciprocity. In view of interpretability, the basic, single-, dyadic- and triadic-node and global characteristics of clickstream graphs have their specific advantages.

The findings suggest that the temporal graph-theoretic approach can form an efficient and powerful AI-based real-time intent detecting decision-support system. Different levels of graph features have their specific interpretability on RTCDs from the perspectives of consumer behavior and psychology, which provides a theoretical basis for the design of computer information systems and the optimization of the ongoing session intervention or recommendation in e-commerce.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to apply clickstream graphs and real-time decision choices in conversion prediction and detection. Most studies have only meditated on a binary classification problem, while this study applies a graph-theoretic approach in a five-class classification problem. In addition, this study constructs temporal item-level graphs to represent the original structure of clickstream session data based on graph theory. The time-varying characteristics of the proposed approach enhance the performance of purchase conversion detection during an ongoing session.

In this study, the central objective is to foresee stock market signals with the use of a proper structure to achieve the highest accuracy possible. For this purpose, three hybrid models have been developed for the stock markets which are a combination of support vector machine (SVM) with meta-heuristic algorithms of particle swarm optimization (PSO), imperialist competition algorithm (ICA) and genetic algorithm (GA).All the analyses are technical and are based on the Japanese candlestick model.

Further as per the results achieved, the most suitable algorithm is chosen to anticipate sell and buy signals. Moreover, the authors have compared the results of the designed model validations in this study with basic models in three articles conducted in the past years. Therefore, SVM is examined by PSO. It is used as a classification agent to search the problem-solving space precisely and at a faster pace. With regards to the second model, SVM and ICA are tested to stock market timing, in a way that ICA is used as an optimization agent for the SVM parameters. At last, in the third model, SVM and GA are studied, where GA acts as an optimizer and feature selection agent.

As per the results, it is observed that all new models can predict accurately for only 6 days; however, in comparison with the confusion matrix results, it is observed that the SVM-GA and SVM-ICA models have correctly predicted more sell signals, and the SCM-PSO model has correctly predicted more buy signals. However, SVM-ICA has shown better performance than other models considering executing the implemented models.

In this study, the data for stock market of the years 2013–2021 were analyzed; the long length of timeframe makes the input data analysis challenging as they must be moderated with respect to the conditions where they have been changed.

In this study, two methods have been developed in a candlestick model; they are raw-based and signal-based approaches in which the hit rate is determined by the percentage of correct evaluations of the stock market for a 16-day period.

The proposed model has been aimed to predict stock market signals by designing an accurate model. In this sense, the stock market is analysed by the technical analysis of Japanese Candlestick, which is combined by the following meta heuristic algorithms: support vector machine (SVM), meta-heuristic algorithms, particle swarm optimization (PSO), imperialist competition algorithm (ICA) and genetic algorithm (GA).

In addition, among the developed algorithms, the most effective one is chosen to determine probable sell and buy signals. Moreover, the authors have proposed comparative results to validate the designed model in this study with the same basic models of three articles in the past. Hence, PSO is used as a classification method to search the solution space absolutelyand with the high speed of running. In terms of the second model, SVM and ICA are examined by the time. Where the ICA is an improver for the SVM parameters. Finally, in the third model, SVM and GA are studied, where GA acts as optimizer and feature selection agent.

Results have been indicated that, the prediction accuracy of all new models are high for only six days, however, with respect to the confusion matrixes results, it is understood that the SVM-GA and SVM-ICA models have correctly predicted more sell signals, and the SCM-PSO model has correctly predicted more buy signals. However, SVM-ICA has shown better performance than other models considering executing the implemented models.

In this study, the authors to analyze the data the long length of time between the years 2013–2021, makes the input data analysis challenging. They must be changed with respect to the conditions.

In this study, two methods have been developed in a candlestick model, they are raw based and signal-based approaches which the hit rate is determined by the percentage of correct evaluations of the stock market for a 16-day period.

The purpose of this paper is to rank critical risks and determine major categories of risks to be considered by public–private partnerships (PPPs) investors when investing in “smart” transportation infrastructure. Such investment is sorely needed in many mega cities around the world currently suffering from serious impacts of traffic congestion, pollution and lack of usability of transport systems.

The study used literature review focused upon smart transportation infrastructure projects financed by PPP arrangements to create a questionnaire which was refined by subject matter experts and then completed by 126 experienced respondents. Exploratory factor analysis was used to create major categories emerging from the collected data. Interviews with ten experts were used to validate the findings.

The most highly major ranked risks shared by these participants were lack of expertise in complex project implementation, political interference, lack of PPP project data and lack of a collaboration mechanism between government and private sectors. Factor analysis showed that in terms of risk likelihood, stakeholder engagement, implementation process issues, the natural environment, data-sharing and technology complexity emerged. In terms of risk impact, major factors were stakeholder engagement, trust versus resistance issues, the natural environment and factors concerning uncertainty.

This paper addresses a somewhat unexplored area, the risks involved in investing in PPP smart transportation infrastructure. Such infrastructure projects are embedded in their environments, and approaches using a complexity lens can emerge overriding risk concerns for investors when undertaking such projects.