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Book part
Publication date: 8 March 2011

Yushi Yoshida

We investigate whether or not the effects of the subprime financial crisis on 12 Asian economies are similar to those of the Asian financial crisis by examining volatility…

Abstract

We investigate whether or not the effects of the subprime financial crisis on 12 Asian economies are similar to those of the Asian financial crisis by examining volatility spillovers and time-varying correlation between the US and Asian stock markets. After pretesting volatility causality and constancy of correlation, we estimate an appropriate smooth-transition correlation VAR-GARCH model for each Asian stock market. First, the empirical evidence indicates stark differences in stock market linkages between the two crises. The volatility causality comes from the crises-originating country. Volatility in Asian stock markets Granger-caused volatility in the US market during the Asian crisis, whereas volatility in the US stock market Granger-caused volatility in Asian stock markets during the subprime crisis. Second, decreased correlations during the period of financial turmoil were observed, especially during the Asian financial crisis. Third, the estimated points of transition in the correlation are indicative of market participants’ awareness of the ensuing stock market crashes in July 1997 and in September 2008.

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The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-745-2

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Book part
Publication date: 28 September 2020

Ihsan Erdem Kayral, Hilal Merve Alagoz and Nisa Sansel Tandogan

The aim of this study is to compare volatility persistence with daily volatility and to analyze the asymmetry effect of volatilities in stock markets of emerging economies. Using…

Abstract

The aim of this study is to compare volatility persistence with daily volatility and to analyze the asymmetry effect of volatilities in stock markets of emerging economies. Using daily observations of stock market indices of selected major emerging countries during the period of January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2018, the authors estimate the persistence, the half-life measure of volatility and the daily volatility of the return series using the GARCH model application. The authors also examine the leverage effect on stock market returns using the EGARCH model estimation. In addition, the authors investigate the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on various volatility measures and the leverage effect of emerging stock market returns. The authors then examine and compare the different speeds of mean reversion, volatility persistence and leverage effects in the national stock market indices during the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. The authors hereby present evidence that the effects of negative shocks are significantly larger than those of positive shocks in emerging stock markets throughout their different sample periods.

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Emerging Market Finance: New Challenges and Opportunities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83982-058-8

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Book part
Publication date: 16 September 2022

Adriana Anamaria Davidescu, Răzvan Gabriel Hapau and Eduard Mihai Manta

In recent decades, interconnections between countries have increased substantially worldwide as the process of integration and globalisation intensifies, with a positive impact in…

Abstract

In recent decades, interconnections between countries have increased substantially worldwide as the process of integration and globalisation intensifies, with a positive impact in terms of economic development, but, also with a vulnerability to external shocks, such as the financial contagion phenomenon. The analysis of this research field becomes even more relevant in the context of a new major exogenous shock, but which, this time, has different specificities, being a sanitary crisis. Thus, the chapter aims to investigate the impact of crises on capital market volatility for the period of 1995–2021, using the bibliometric analysis highlighting the dynamics of the literature and potential future research directions through a science mapping that enables investigating scientific knowledge. In order to explore the development of the research field in terms of publications, author impact, affiliated institutions and countries, citation patterns, trending topics, relationship between keywords–authors–journals, abstracts’ analysis, authors and documents clustering by coupling, multiple correspondence analysis of major research themes, keyword analysis, co-citation analysis and authors, institutions and countries collaboration analysis have been applied. Hence, almost 500 publications from Web of Science database covering the period 1995–2021 have been extracted. The empirical findings emphasise the conceptual structure, with clusters focussing mainly on long-term receivables, market efficiency, volatility, dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-GARCH models, asymmetric effects. According to the intellectual structure of the field, Lambertides N., Zopiatis A., McAleer M. or Savva C. S. are the most representative authors for the sub-area of volatility topic; whilst Balcerzak A. P., Pietrzak M. B., Zinecker M., Meluzin T. and Faldzinski M. are the reference names for the whole spectrum of DCC-GARCH models’ topic. Jayasekera R., Lundblad C., Choundhry T., Gupta R. and Demirer R. are the authors mostly associated with asymmetric effects’ topic, whilst Thorp S., Bouchaud J. P. and Dungey M. with the quantitative finance. The Journal of Banking & Finance, the Journal of International Money and Finance and the International Review of Financial Analysis as well as Economic Modelling, Research in International Business and Finance and the International Journal of Finance & Economics are the most prolific journals in the field of capital flow and financial crises. This chapter’s main contribution is to build a structure of knowledge for the impact of crises on capital market volatility, elaborate and classify empirical research into relevant dimensions that can be used as a reference for comprehensively developing research. Finally, the bibliometric analysis results may provide insight into future research prospects. Our conclusions offer some recommendations for market practitioners and policy-making.

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The New Digital Era: Other Emerging Risks and Opportunities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-983-8

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Book part
Publication date: 1 October 2014

Masahiro Inoguchi

This chapter examines the impact of price fluctuations in foreign stock markets on the stock prices of domestic banks in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Some studies…

Abstract

This chapter examines the impact of price fluctuations in foreign stock markets on the stock prices of domestic banks in Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. Some studies have argued that the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC) affected domestic banks less in East Asia, even though the supporting evidence is rather limited. Employing a multinomial logit model, we estimate how changes in the United States and Japanese stock markets affected the banking sectors in the sampled countries before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and before and during the more recent GFC. We interpret the number of banks in a given country that experienced a large price shock on the same day (or “coexceedance”) as shocks to the domestic banking sector. The results suggest that fluctuations in foreign stock market indices exerted a larger impact on the prices of East Asian banking stocks during the 2000s than during the 1990s. In addition, although the shocks brought about by the deterioration of foreign stock markets were significant before the GFC, both increases and decreases in foreign stock prices significantly affected the banking sectors of the respective countries during the crisis. Lastly, we conclude that increasing foreign capital flows and foreign assets and liabilities greatly influenced domestic banking systems in East Asia during the 2000s.

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Risk Management Post Financial Crisis: A Period of Monetary Easing
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-027-8

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Abstract

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Dynamics of Financial Stress and Economic Performance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78754-783-4

Book part
Publication date: 23 December 2005

Yun Wang, Abeyratna Gunasekarage and David M. Power

This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi…

Abstract

This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi Stock Exchange and (iii) the Colombo Stock Exchange. We construct a univariate EGARCH spillover model that allows the unexpected return of any particular South Asian market to be driven by a local shock, a regional shock from Japan and a global shock from the USA. The study discovers return spillovers in all three markets, and volatility spillovers from the US to the Indian and Sri Lankan markets, and from the Japanese to the Pakistani market. Regional factors seem to exert an influence on these three markets before the Asian financial crisis but the global factor becomes more important in the post-crisis period.

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Asia Pacific Financial Markets in Comparative Perspective: Issues and Implications for the 21st Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-258-0

Book part
Publication date: 19 June 2019

See-Nie Lee

We investigate the link between firm volatility and risk-taking (RT) among 4232 institutions across 11 countries during the period of 2000–2017 and find RT is negatively…

Abstract

We investigate the link between firm volatility and risk-taking (RT) among 4232 institutions across 11 countries during the period of 2000–2017 and find RT is negatively correlated with volatility measures. Second, a decomposition of the primary risk measure, the Z score and Merton distance-to-default, reveals that high RT contributed to lower stock return volatility mainly through better corporate governance, firm size, higher information efficiency, and strong BOD. Third, Australia firms engage in more RT compared to other countries. Finally, majority of the selected countries show the negative impact of RT in firm volatility in the pre-crises period (2002–2006) and during the crises period (2007–2009) but not in the post-crises period (2010–2014).

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Asia-Pacific Contemporary Finance and Development
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-273-3

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Book part
Publication date: 4 July 2019

Letife Özdemir and Serap Vurur

Capital markets thrive on information, and the information revolution has transformed these markets all over the world. Investors can now keep track of the movements of capital…

Abstract

Capital markets thrive on information, and the information revolution has transformed these markets all over the world. Investors can now keep track of the movements of capital markets in real-time and they react to the flow of information from around the world. One of the concerns of stock market investors is whether the markets operate efficiently, independently, and with sound fundamentals. However, real market movements tend to exhibit a link as is evident from recent market movements across the world.

The assessment of interdependence between stock markets is an important aspect of international portfolio management. The aim of this chapter is to examine the shock and volatility spillover between the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P500) index from the United States (US) Stock Exchange and the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 (BIST100) index from the Stock Exchange Istanbul.

S&P500 index, which is the most important index representing US markets, and BIST100 index, which is the index representing the Turkish market, were used as variables in this study. In the analysis, the causality in variance test was applied to determine the volatility spillover between these two markets. Later, multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models were used to measure the volatility spillover in the markets. VAR(1)-GARCH (1,1)-Diagonal BEKK model was applied to the daily data to determine the shock and volatility spillover in the markets.

As a result of the variance causality test, it was found that there is a bi-directional volatility spillover between S&P500 index and BIST100 index. When the return spillover between the markets is examined, a one-way spillover from the S&P500 index to the BIST100 index emerged. Diagonal BEKK model results show that each market is affected by its own news (unexpected shocks) and volatility. Furthermore, the volatility is persistent for both markets. These findings demonstrate that the US market and the Turkish market interact with each other.

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Mohamed Ismail Mohamed Riyath, Narayanage Jayantha Dewasiri, Mohamed Abdul Majeed Mohamed Siraju, Athambawa Jahfer and Kiran Sood

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market…

Abstract

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.

Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.

Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1st April 2010 to 21st June 2023.

Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.

Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.

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VUCA and Other Analytics in Business Resilience, Part A
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-902-4

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Book part
Publication date: 2 September 2020

Sezer Bozkuş Kahyaoğlu and Hilmi Tunahan Akkuş

Introduction – The rapid flow of information between the markets eliminates the possibility of diversifying the portfolio by bringing the markets closer, and may cause the…

Abstract

Introduction – The rapid flow of information between the markets eliminates the possibility of diversifying the portfolio by bringing the markets closer, and may cause the volatility in a market to spread to another market. In this context, revealing the relationships between conventional and participation markets or financial assets is important in terms of portfolio diversification and risk management.

Purpose – The major aim of this work is to analyse the existence of volatility spillover between conventional stock index and participation index based on the indexes in Turkish Capital Markets. BIST-30 and Katılım-30 indexes are used as the representatives of conventional stock index and participation index, respectively.

Methodology – Firstly, the univariate HYGARCH (1,d,1) parameters are calculated, and secondly, the dynamic equicorrelation (DECO) methodology is applied. DECO model is proposed to simplify structural assumptions by introducing a structure in which all twosomes of returns take the same correlation for a given time period. In this way, DECO model enables to have an optimal portfolio selection in comparison to an unrestricted time varying-dynamic correlation approaches and gives more advanced forecasting ability for the duration of the financial crisis periods compared to the various portfolios.

Findings – There is a strong correlation between BIST-30 and Katılım-30. They are affected by the same shocks. We expect to see different investor behaviours for Katılım-30 and BIST-30. However, they seem to have almost the same investor profile. In addition, there is a causality in both ways and volatility spillover between them.

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