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Article
Publication date: 26 June 2023

Athanasios Tsagkanos, Dimitrios Koumanakos and Michalis Pavlakis

The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest project in European Union (EU) and previous studies fail to reach an accurate conclusion regarding the direction of this transmission.

Design/methodology/approach

The study covers the period from January 2013 to August 2022 in monthly basis where important economic events occur. Considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, the authors adopt a new methodology that measures the transmission of volatility with higher precision. This is the generalized spillover analysis by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012).

Findings

The results indicate that Business Confidence Index (BCI) is the main receiver of volatility spillovers in Greece under all aspects of the used methodology. The specificity of the results shows that business activity through a green growth model is what drives investor confidence and then their activities.

Originality/value

Although a handful of studies have considered the transmission of volatility between BCI and stock market indices, this study contributes in several ways. This study focuses on one country (Greece), avoiding the dispersion of the results from the examination of the relationship in several countries. The used country remains the riskiest project in EU even nowadays, while other studies fail to confirm the main direction of volatility spillovers from business confidence to stock returns. This study covers a period that is ignored by previous studies and includes important economic events. In addition, considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, a new methodology is adopted in this field of research that measures the transmission of volatility with higher accuracy.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 February 2024

Peter Ngozi Amah

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only…

Abstract

Purpose

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only consider committing fund in asset which promises commensurate higher return for higher risk. Questions have been asked as to whether this holds true across securities, sectors and markets. Empirical evidence appears less convincing, especially in developing markets. Accordingly, the author investigates the nature of reward for taking risk in the Nigerian Capital Market within the context of individual assets and markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The author employed ex post design to collect weekly stock prices of firms listed on the Premium Board of Nigerian Stock Exchange for period 2014–2022 to attempt to answer research questions. Data were analyzed using a unique M Vec TGarch-in-Mean model considered to be robust in handling many assets, and hence portfolio management.

Findings

The study found that idea of risk-expected return trade-off is perhaps more general than as depicted by traditional finance literature. The regression revealed that conditional variance and covariance risks reveal minimal or no differences in sign and sizes of coefficients. However, standard errors were also found to be large suggesting somewhat inconclusive evidence of existence of defined incentive structure for taking additional risk in the market.

Originality/value

In terms of choice of methodology and outcomes, this research adds substantial value to body of knowledge. The adapted multivariate model used in this paper is a rare approach especially for management of portfolios in developing markets. Remarkably, the research found empirical evidence that positive risk-expected return trade-off, as known in mainstream literature, is not supported especially using a typical developing country data.

Details

IIMBG Journal of Sustainable Business and Innovation, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2976-8500

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Donia Aloui and Abderrazek Ben Maatoug

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through…

Abstract

Purpose

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).

Findings

The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.

Practical implications

The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 March 2024

Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

Abstract

Purpose

We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.

Findings

We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

Originality/value

We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 October 2023

Raymond K. Dziwornu, Eric B. Yiadom and Sampson B. Narteh-yoe

The cost of agricultural loans is a major constraint to the growth of the agriculture sector. This paper examines agricultural loan pricing by banks in Ghana using panel data…

Abstract

Purpose

The cost of agricultural loans is a major constraint to the growth of the agriculture sector. This paper examines agricultural loan pricing by banks in Ghana using panel data analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

Data were obtained from audited financial reports of 15 agricultural loan lending banks from 2010 to 2017. The study applies the random-effect model and the fixed-effect model in the analysis and uses the system generalized system method of moment to check the robustness of the results from the baseline models.

Findings

The study found that agricultural loan pricing by banks is significantly influenced by risk premium, cost of funds, loan impairment, agricultural growth rate and food inflation. Banks should leverage emerging technologies to de-risk agriculture loan pricing to allay the fear of default. Farmers should look for long-term and relatively cheaper funds to support agricultural loans. Increasing credit to the agricultural sector could increase output, thereby reducing food inflation uncertainty for competitive pricing of agricultural loans.

Originality/value

Agriculture employs about 52% of Ghana's labor force, contributing about 20% to GDP. But it is “under” financed. This study leads the way in unraveling the factors accounting for the high prices of agricultural loans in Ghana. This study further contributes to policy development toward increasing credit to the agricultural sector.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Te-Kuan Lee and Askar Koshoev

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.

Findings

The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Understanding Financial Risk Management, Third Edition
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-253-7

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 May 2024

Tapas Kumar Sethy and Naliniprava Tripathy

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on the conditional volatility of the equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study employs the Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) for pricing systematic liquidity risk using the Fama & MacBeth cross-sectional regression model in the Indian stock market from January 1, 2012, to March 31, 2021. Further, the study employed an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (1,1) model to observe the impact of decomposed illiquidity on the equity market’s conditional volatility. The study also uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to illuminate the return-volatility-liquidity relationship.

Findings

The study’s findings indicate that the commonality between individual security liquidity and aggregate liquidity is positive, and the covariance of individual security liquidity and the market return negatively affects the expected return. The study’s outcome specifies that illiquidity time series analysis exhibits the asymmetric effect of directional change in return on illiquidity. Further, the study indicates a significant impact of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on conditional volatility. This suggests an asymmetric effect of illiquidity shocks on conditional volatility in the Indian stock market.

Originality/value

This study is one of the few studies that used the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to measure liquidity and market risks as specified in the LCAPM. Further, the findings of the reverse impact of illiquidity and decomposed higher and lower illiquidity on conditional volatility confirm the presence of price informativeness and its immediate effects on illiquidity in the Indian stock market. The study strengthens earlier studies and offers new insights into stock market liquidity to clarify the association between liquidity and stock return for effective policy and strategy formulation that can benefit investors.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

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