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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Sami Zaki Alabdulwahab and Ahmed Sabry Abou-Zaid

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

Findings

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

Originality/value

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2022

Fredrick Otieno Okuta, Titus Kivaa, Raphael Kieti and James Ouma Okaka

This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This study aims to explain the dynamic effects of the macroeconomic factors on the three indicators of the housing market performance: housing prices growth, sales index and rent index.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used ARDL Models on time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited.

Findings

The results indicate that household income, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates and exchange rates have both short-run and long-run effects on housing prices while interest rates, diaspora remittance, construction output and urban population have no significant effects on housing prices both in the short and long run. However, only household income, interest rates, private capital inflows and exchange rates have a significant effect on housing sales both in the short and long run. Furthermore, household income, GDP, interest rates and exchange rates significantly affect housing rental growth in the short and long run. The findings are key for policymaking, especially at the appraisal stages of real estate investments by the developers.

Practical implications

The authors recommend the use of both the traditional hedonic models in conjunction with the dynamic models during real estate project appraisals as this would ensure that developers only invest in the right projects in the right economic situations.

Originality/value

The imbalance between housing demand and supply has prompted an investigation into the role of macroeconomic variables on the housing market in Kenya. Although the effects of the variables have been documented, there is a need to document the short-run and long-term effects of the factors to precisely understand the behavior of the housing market as a way of shielding developers from economic losses.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 August 2023

Laurent Oloukoi

This article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these…

Abstract

Purpose

This article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The Mundell–Fleming model (MMF) is the analytical framework adopted in this paper with import demand and export supply functions estimation borrowed to Thirlwall (1979). This study covers four countries in West Africa from 1990 to 2021. The estimation procedure used is an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration.

Findings

The findings reveal that there is a strong marginal propensity to import in the WAEMU countries. The hypothesis of a non-significant price effect on imports in the short-term is confirmed for several countries while only Togo satisfies the MLRC in the short and long run.

Originality/value

This study presents several originalities: (1) it evaluates MLRC with a clear analytical framework; (2) unlike other studies, this article quantifies the MLRC from a theoretical, econometric and empirical point of view; (3) this article presents the results country by country in order to reveal heterogeneity between countries; (4) this study adds to the Marshall–Lerner condition for the derivation of Robinson by considering a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Sachin Gupta, Sakshi Goel, Santosh Kumar and Gaurav Nagpal

The purpose of the study is to analyze and measure the impact of disruption in demand which causes the bullwhip effect. The bullwhip effect impacts the performance of firm. Just…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to analyze and measure the impact of disruption in demand which causes the bullwhip effect. The bullwhip effect impacts the performance of firm. Just like everything else, covid has had an impact on the disruption of supply chain too leading to the need of measuring the bullwhip effect of select Indian sectors. The comparison on bullwhip effect is drawn in pre- and during covid era in major sectors. The study helps to understand, analyze and measure the impact of covid and its challenges to supply chain.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical study is carried out on five major select Indian sectors which have the largest market capitalization in Indian economy, namely, FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods), automobile, utility, consumer durable and IT (information technology). The disruption in the supply chain is measured in terms of bullwhip effect. The novel metric ratio of bullwhip effect is computed which is based on demand–supply mismatch and analyzed based on 10 years of observations. The data is analyzed twice, first from 2011 to 2019 (pre-covid era) and second from 2019 to 2021 (during covid era). Each time, Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) sectoral indices are used to compute the bullwhip ratio, and empirical data is collected using Prowess. The firms listed in BSE represent most of the sector. Such panel data helps us to analyze inter- and intraindustry bullwhip effect. The changes in the bullwhip effect for various BSE listed firms are analyzed pre- and during covid era. These changes are specifically studied at the manufacturer end of the supply chain. Later regression analysis is performed to study the changes required in production based on the demand. The various strategies that cause or mitigate the impact of covid in intraindustry can be derived from the study. The disruption in production is analyzed based on the disruption in demand and profit before interest and tax (PBIT).

Findings

In pre-covid era, the percentage of demand disruption was low in select sectors but not exactly zero. Covid caused the disruptions in supply chain across the globe which resulted in bullwhip effect in Indian sectors too. Yet some of the sectors were able to cope better with the situation as compared to others. In the present study, same is analyzed statistically, and results are derived for practical significance.

Research limitations/implications

The empirical data is having the observations of past 10 years to analyze the pattern of demand disruption in the firms and hence the sectors. The impact of covid is studied on performance, which is analyzed in terms of PBIT. The impact of other factors (political, social, marketing policies, etc.) that may cause disruption in the supply chain of a firm is not considered in the study.

Originality/value

Study is unique, as it measures disruption and provides a peerless way to study the inter- and intrasectors. To analyze the impact of bullwhip effect on sector performance, it is very much required to first measure the bullwhip; this measure of bullwhip as a ratio of the slopes of demand and supply is a novel approach. The study emphasizes that the impact of covid is not the same among the firms, and hence among the sectors. Also, it is found that the impact of such adversities can be mitigated, and performance of firm can remain intact in turbulent times too.

Details

Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-5364

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Petr Rozmahel and Marek Litzman

This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit…

Abstract

This chapter elaborates on the main factors of the adverse macroeconomic development in Czechia and Europe. Currently, i.e. from 2022, Czechia mainly suffers from double-digit galloping inflation and GDP stagnation. The aim of this chapter is to identify and describe the influence of the main factors from the present and the more distant past on current inflation and approaching stagflation in Czechia. This chapter analyzes an unfavourable mix of demand and supply factors that leave the new banking board of the CNB facing a dilemma, that is, whether to pursue a disinflationary policy of increasing interest rates and thus push the Czech economy closer into recession or to rely on demand-driven economic growth, which will keep unemployment at a low level, but at the same time contribute to inflationary pressures. The new governor of the CNB completely changed the strategy of his predecessor and, despite strong criticism, did not raise interest rates even once. Based on the analysis of inflationary factors, this chapter tries to explain the motives for the Central Bank's new strategy in the fight against inflation, which is the systematic appreciation of the Czech koruna.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Findings

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

Originality/value

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

Findings

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

Originality/value

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 October 2022

Xiaoyun Li, Suicheng Li, Jianqi Qiao and Mengchao Wu

This study aims to develop a moderated mediation model to explain the practices of supply base management and how they can achieve innovation performance, and the authors explore…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to develop a moderated mediation model to explain the practices of supply base management and how they can achieve innovation performance, and the authors explore the boundary conditions of this implementation mechanism.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the bootstrap procedure to conduct empirical tests on 328 Chinese manufacturers to verify the proposed model.

Findings

The results showed that supplier innovation focus, supply-base structuring and long-term relationship focus have a positive impact on innovation performance through supplier innovativeness, and the mediation performs differently under technology and demand uncertainty.

Research limitations/implications

The authors only focused on innovation performance, and it does not explore the links between supply base management and other performance outcomes. This study involves part of the supply network which is easier to manage, i.e. supply base. The authors ignored the importance of other members in supply network. Finally, the data obtained in this study belong to the cross-sectional data during the same period but it accomplishes the research aim well.

Practical implications

The focal firm needs to improve their supply base composition, establish permeable organizational boundaries, and build long-term strategic partnerships characterized by equality and trust with suppliers to stimulate supply base members to make innovative contributions.

Originality/value

This study complements the implementation path of manufacturers around innovation, emphasizing multidimensional characteristics of supply base management. And this study clarifies the mechanism and boundary conditions between supply base management and innovation performance.

Details

European Journal of Innovation Management, vol. 27 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1460-1060

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 July 2023

Kiran Patil, Vipul Garg, Janeth Gabaldon, Himali Patil, Suman Niranjan and Timothy Hawkins

This paper aims to examine how interfirm transactional and relational assets drive firm performance (FP) in digitally integrated supply chains.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine how interfirm transactional and relational assets drive firm performance (FP) in digitally integrated supply chains.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors combine the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Relational Exchange Theory (RET) frameworks to hypothesize that FP will be a function of Asset Specificity (AS), Digital Technology Usage (DTU) and Collaborative Information Sharing (CIS). In addition, the authors hypothesize that Supply Chain Integration (SCI) will partially mediate the effect of DTU and fully mediate the impact of AS and CIS on FP. A cross-sectional survey of supply chain managers is used to test the hypotheses.

Findings

Findings indicate that specific investments in digitally integrated supply chains would increase FP. In addition, SCI fully mediates the relationships between AS and FP and CIS and FP, while SCI partially mediates the influence of DTU on FP.

Practical implications

Managers could strategically engage in the technologies that effectively fit within the firm’s supply chain strategies and seek to develop a pragmatic expertise that enables the effective use of technology in a comprehensive setting.

Originality/value

The study enriches the extant literature by incorporating TCE and RET as contradictory viewpoints on AS and investigating how transactional and relational assets affect FP in digitally integrated supply chains.

Details

Journal of Enterprise Information Management, vol. 37 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0398

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 October 2023

Roland Hellberg

A deteriorating security situation and an increased need for defence equipment calls for new forms of collaboration between Armed Forces and the defence industry. This paper aims…

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Abstract

Purpose

A deteriorating security situation and an increased need for defence equipment calls for new forms of collaboration between Armed Forces and the defence industry. This paper aims to investigate the ways in which the accelerating demand for increased security of supply of equipment and supplies to the Armed Forces requires adaptability in the procurement process that is governed by laws on public procurement (PP).

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is based on a review of current literature as well as empirical data obtained through interviews with representatives from the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration and the Swedish defence industry.

Findings

Collaboration with the globalized defence industry requires new approaches, where the PP rules make procurement of a safe supply of defence equipment difficult.

Research limitations/implications

The study's empirical data and findings are based on the Swedish context. In order to draw more general conclusions in a defence context, the study should be expanded to cover more nations.

Practical implications

The findings will enable the defence industry and the procurement authorizations to better understand the requirements of Armed Forces, and how to cooperate under applicable legal and regulatory requirements.

Originality/value

The paper extends the extant body of academic knowledge of the security of supply into the defence sector. It serves as a first step towards articulating a call for new approaches to collaboration in defence supply chains.

Details

Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-6439

Keywords

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