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This chapter explores how the dynamics of cross-border conflicts relate to the characteristics of the states involved. The underlying idea is that cross-border conflicts will develop in different ways and involve different sets of actors depending on the relative strengths and other characteristics of the states separated by the border. This proposition is investigated through a comparison of the conflict dynamics across three of Ethiopia's borders. These borders differ in terms of the relative strength of the two states they separate in each case, as well as on the kind of state presence found in the borderlands. Thus, the border between Eritrea and Ethiopia can be said to have a strong state presence on both sides; between Somalia and Ethiopia the state is considerably stronger on the Ethiopian side; while the border between Ethiopia and Sudan has a weak state presence on both sides. The conflict dynamics across the border with Eritrea have tended to be of a ‘classic’ bipolar and interstate kind, while the border with Sudan has seen a much more complex and ‘anarchic’ conflict pattern, involving a complex array of both non-state and state actors. The Somalia border falls somewhere in between, with a complex set of actors and conflicts, yet subject to an overall structuring along one dimension. These differences are argued to be congruent with the relative strength of state presence in these borderlands. The main value of the chapter may lie in its approach to the theme of African borders, and in the relativistic way in which it conceptualizes state strength.

The purpose of this paper is to portray four scenarios for the future of Sudan in the year 2012. On the basis of these scenarios it aims to draw a number of conclusions on the future of Sudan and the way ahead.

The paper uses the Shell methodology for scenario building and is based on five scenario workshops held in Sudan, one in The Netherlands, interviews and literature research. The four scenarios not only intend to provide an overview of what is likely to happen, but also aim to be plausible, challenging and creative.

The paper finds that the future of Sudan is likely to remain violent and that the most optimistic scenario is also the least likely. It concludes that, although outside mediation and assistance in the organization of elections are needed, the critical difference between a successful and an unsuccessful outcome will to a large extent be determined by whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership.

The paper provides a number of policy recommendations for the international community to prevent the worst from happening and to be prepared for what may come.

The paper aims to fill the gap in future foresight with regard to Sudan and for this purpose utilized the knowledge among the Sudanese themselves.

We consider the challenges to education in South Sudan by utilizing a national random sample of South Sudanese (provided by the BBC Media Action) and then semi-structured interviews with eight education service providers (SPs). We find that the conflicts have large impacts on educational opportunities. States that experience greater conflict also experience greater poverty. Under such conditions, children are important for providing resources for the family and education can become secondary. In these conflict areas, respondents are more likely to agree that education is more important for boys than for girls. SPs detail the large number of obstacles to delivering education. Displacement and fleeing danger creates problems with hunger, illness, and safety. SPs discuss the variability of resources, the scarcity of schools and teachers, and the uncertainty of life in South Sudan. They also discuss triumphs they have experienced and suggest changes or interventions that could increase educational opportunities.