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The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a humanitarian crisis that will be followed by an economic crisis. Tourism is one of the most affected sectors of the economy. Forecasts are devastating. Many local communities lost an important source of income and employees lost their jobs. In Slovenia, where tourism represents approximately 10% of GDP, the Government, consulting with experts and scientists, introduced staycation vouchers. Each resident received a voucher worth €200, while children up to 18 years old received one worth €50. Through this scheme, the Government was subsidising residents to go on vacation with €350 million. The initial results are positive – in the first seven weeks, approximately 15% of staycation vouchers were used. Industry representatives are optimistic and the tourism industry may end up with a 40% drop in total revenue instead of the forecasted 70% for the year 2020. The pandemic has had some positive outcomes, since holidays in Slovenia this year were available to all.

Because of COVID-19, tourist behaviour has changed with a range of trends becoming more prominent. This paper sets out to explain the dominance of family tourism in New Zealand's domestic markets and the trends associated with it.

This paper is based upon secondary data from academic literature, industry reports, news media and webinars associated with New Zealand during COVID-19, starting in March 2020.

The paper explains the rise of family tourism in New Zealand during COVID-19 based upon the consumer behaviour trends of: (1) Simplicity: In search of slow; (2) Mercurial consumption; (3) Localism; (4) Staycation; (5) Healthy habits; and (6) Is it safe to come out?

The usefulness of this paper is derived from explaining why the rise of family tourism occurred based upon the identified trends.

The COVID-19 pandemic is considered a “once in a century” public health shock that, at the time of writing, continues to have a profound impact on global tourism and New Zealand. The paper aims to assess how consumer behaviour trends changed using a trends analysis framework.

Positioning the paper in the prognosis–prediction paradigm from futures studies and using a trend analysis approach, the authors forecasted a series of tourist trends at the beginning of COVID-19 based upon a multitude of sources trends. Then, 12 months later, they reported on the accuracy of these forecasts.

The matrix identifies 15 trends based upon consumer behaviour changes, which are either dominant, slowed, advanced or arrested. The prognosis was largely correct, which was supported by evidence gathered 12 months later.

The paper uses a series of different data sources to reflect on the initial forecasts. To some, this may be an issue of rigor, but the authors argue that through triangulation, credibility and validity are increased.

First, the evaluation matrix allows users to make sense of COVID-19 based upon the concepts of dominant, slowed, advanced or arrested trends. Second, the matrix allows users to evaluate changes and movement of trends. Third, the trends featured in this paper could be generalisable to several different circumstances associated with simple identity. Fourth, this paper has tested the ability to predict trends in an uncertain environment within the context of the ontological paradigm of prognosis and prediction of futures states.