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Article
Publication date: 18 July 2016

Burhan F Yavas and Fahimeh Rezayat

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the linkages among equity exchange traded funds (ETF) returns and transmission of volatilities of the USA, Europe and key…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the linkages among equity exchange traded funds (ETF) returns and transmission of volatilities of the USA, Europe and key emerging countries’ stock markets. Standard & Poor’s 500 (spy) and iShares Europe are used to represent the USA and European stock markets, the emerging market part of the data set consists of daily returns of equity ETF representing broad equity market indices of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China); the mist countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey) and South Africa and covers the period of February 3, 2012-February 28, 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper utilizes multi-variate auto-regressive moving-averages (MARMA) methodology to study equity market returns and spillovers. Second, generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskadasticity (GARCH) modeling is employed to model volatility persistence and transmissions.

Findings

The findings include the existence of significant co-movement of returns among all country ETFs; however, despite increasing interdependencies among the global stock markets there are still very good opportunities for diversification. For example, USA and Europe based investors may do well to ignore opportunities in each other’s markets but can realize diversification benefits by investing in ETFs representing China, South Africa and Turkey. As far as volatilities are concerned, the findings indicate that no ETF volatility is transmitted from the sample countries to USA, Brazil, China and South African stock markets. Also, US market volatility is transmitted to India, Russia, Mexico and Turkey while European volatility spills over to Mexico and South Korea. The presence of spillovers among stock markets’ return series and persistence of volatilities are useful to investors interested in diversifying their portfolios and to traders/fund managers who are interested in maximizing returns.

Research limitations/implications

The implications include: first, investors should not only rely on current domestic news to guide their investment decisions, but also take into consideration international news for there are substantial spillovers. Second, given that volatilities can proxy for risk, there are lessons for both individual and institutional investors in terms of further examining pricing securities, hedging and other trading strategies as well as framing regulatory policies. Third, investors should be able to ride the financial cycle by following closely monetary policies of the FED and European Central Bank and resulting credit expansion or contraction since research indicates (and as corroborated in this study) equity prices are linked to VIX which is also correlated with capital flows and credit expansion and interest rates. Limitations include: first, the investigation could be expanded to include individual countries in Europe instead of using one Europe-wide ETF. As ETFs for other emerging markets become available it is also possible to include additional countries. Second, ETFs may not be the best vehicles for diversification.

Originality/value

Methodology (MARMA and GARCH) is widely used for analyzing financial data. The use of BRIC and MIST countries and the interaction among them may be novel. Spillovers among emerging financial markets is a fairly new area. Typically, the authors see studies of spillovers from the developed countries to the developing ones. The data period is important since it covers both credit expansion and contraction (or the start of it) by the FED and is current.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 April 2010

Colin C. Williams

The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the nature of undeclared work in South East Europe and the rest of the European Union and in doing so, to evaluate…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare and contrast the nature of undeclared work in South East Europe and the rest of the European Union and in doing so, to evaluate critically the validity of depicting the character of undeclared work as being the same everywhere.

Design/methodology/approach

A 2007 survey of undeclared work is reported, conducted in 27 European Union (EU) member states involving 26,659 face‐to‐face interviews. This paper focuses on the results of the 2,432 interviews conducted in five South East European countries, namely Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Romania and Slovenia.

Findings

In South Eastern Europe, more undeclared work is found to be waged employment and conducted by marginalised population groups out of necessity compared with other EU regions. Nevertheless, and similar to other EU regions, most undeclared work is conducted on an own‐account basis, rather than as waged employment, for close social relations, rather than anonymous employers, and out of choice rather than necessity, although different mixtures prevail in different places and populations both within South Eastern Europe and across the EU as a whole.

Research limitations/implications

This recognition of the multifarious work relations and motives involved in undeclared work, and different mixtures in varying populations, displays the need to move beyond treating undeclared work as everywhere the same and towards nuanced spatially sensitive representations.

Practical implications

Given the proportion of undeclared work conducted on an own‐account basis and for closer social relations, this paper reveals that if South East European governments continue to seek its eradication, they will deter with one hand precisely the entrepreneurship and mutual aid that with another they are seeking to nurture.

Originality/value

This is the first evaluation of undeclared work in South East Europe and the EU.

Details

Employee Relations, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0142-5455

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

V. Duwicquet, E.M. Mouhoud and J. Oudinet

The aim of this paper is to estimate the dynamic of international migration between the different regions of the world for 2030 and to measure the impact of different kind

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to estimate the dynamic of international migration between the different regions of the world for 2030 and to measure the impact of different kind of migration policies on the economic and social evolution.

Design/methodology/approach

The change and migration forecasting are estimated for regions of the world using macroeconomic Cambridge Alphametrics Model.

Findings

The crisis and its aggravation thus clearly favour scenarios of immigration policy along the “zero migration” or “constant migration”. These choices of migration policies reinforce the deflationary process resulting in reduced opportunities for renewed growth in industrial areas and are not offset by the dynamism of growth in emerging countries. Paradoxically, the developed countries which are most durably affected by the crisis are also those that have ageing population and are in high need of skilled and unskilled labor.

Practical implications

Three options are possible: one going along the depressive process by espousing restrictive immigration policies that remain expensive. The second involves a highly selective immigration policy. Under these conditions the demographic revival already appearing would be reinforced by a rejuvenation of the population brought about by a more open immigration policy. Political and institutional factors play a fundamental role in the emergence of this optimistic assumption and the rise of isolationism in Europe and the ghettoization of suburban areas can hinder the application of such a policy of openness to migration. The third scenario, the mass migration scenario, allows letting go of the growth related constraints and getting out of the deflationist spiral. This pro-active approach could cause public opinions to change in line with public interest. This scenario of mass migration has more of a chance to see the light under a growth hypothesis. However, restrictive policies weaken the prospects of sustainable recovery causing a vicious cycle that can only be broken by pro-active policies or by irresistible shocks.

Originality/value

From specific estimations, four immigration regimes have been built that cut across the major regions of the model: the “core skill replacement migration regime” based on selective policies using migration to fill high-skilled labor needs (United Kingdom, West and Northern Europe, Canada, Australia, and USA), “mass immigration and replacement” applies to South Europe, East Asia High Income, and part of West Asia (Gulf countries), “big fast-growing emerging regions of future mass immigration,” notably China, India and “South-South migration” based on forced migration much of it by climate change, which may likely occur in South Asia, part of West Asia, and, most of Africa (without South Africa). Migrations in transit countries (Central America to USA, and East Europe to UK and West Europe) are based on low skilled migrants in labor-intensive sectors.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 24 May 2007

Frederic Carluer

“It should also be noted that the objective of convergence and equal distribution, including across under-performing areas, can hinder efforts to generate growth

Abstract

“It should also be noted that the objective of convergence and equal distribution, including across under-performing areas, can hinder efforts to generate growth. Contrariwise, the objective of competitiveness can exacerbate regional and social inequalities, by targeting efforts on zones of excellence where projects achieve greater returns (dynamic major cities, higher levels of general education, the most advanced projects, infrastructures with the heaviest traffic, and so on). If cohesion policy and the Lisbon Strategy come into conflict, it must be borne in mind that the former, for the moment, is founded on a rather more solid legal foundation than the latter” European Commission (2005, p. 9)Adaptation of Cohesion Policy to the Enlarged Europe and the Lisbon and Gothenburg Objectives.

Details

Managing Conflict in Economic Convergence of Regions in Greater Europe
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-451-5

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Nicholas Ridley

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the banking systems in Western, and Central and Southeastern Europe, focusing on the interactive factors of anti‐money laundering…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the banking systems in Western, and Central and Southeastern Europe, focusing on the interactive factors of anti‐money laundering, transitional economies and the underground illicit economy.

Design/methodology/approach

Provides a comparative analysis of the banking systems in Western, and Central and Southeastern Europe.

Findings

The transition economies of central and Southeastern Europe face, and have been confronted for over a generation by, the interlinked problems of the transition stage post‐1989, the alternative or illegal economy, and the vulnerability of banking systems to money laundering. In contrast, by the 1990s, Western European central banks have become established as an essential government organ in macro‐economic policies.

Originality/value

Suggests an interesting lesson that might be gained from the experiences of central and Southeastern Europe and anti‐money laundering since the late‐1990s, where a national bank or central bank has not been essential, indeed has been comparatively unimportant, compared to the developed banking system led by the individual banks.

Details

Journal of Money Laundering Control, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1368-5201

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 October 2008

Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper

The paper sets out to explore the nature and degree of variation in foresight “style” across six world regions. The underlying hypothesis is that differences in regional

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper sets out to explore the nature and degree of variation in foresight “style” across six world regions. The underlying hypothesis is that differences in regional context – in terms of political, socio‐economic, and cultural conditions – will affect foresight “style”. At the same time, a secondary hypothesis acknowledges that policy tool transfer and international learning might soften the influence of contextual conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the data collected for more than 800 foresight exercises in six world regions, the paper considers eight different dimensions of foresight “style”, including domain coverage, time horizon, target groups, and methods used. It interprets regional differences (and similarities) with reference to dominant political and economic traditions in each region. In so doing, it tests the hypothesis that foresight “style” is influenced by regional context.

Findings

The analysis suggests that some foresight “style” dimensions vary between regions more than others. For example, there is marked variation in the domain areas covered by foresight across the world, while some regions appear to prefer particular methods over others. Time horizons also vary. For other dimensions, such as participation levels and the identity of target groups, there is a good deal of similarity. Thus, some dimensions of “style”, at least at the aggregate level, seem to be more influenced by regional context than others.

Originality/value

The paper is unique in being the first publication to survey such a large sample of foresight activity across a wide part of the globe.

Details

Foresight, vol. 10 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 January 2004

Peter J. Rimmer

Toyota's internationally coordinated production system in Asia and its selection of supply bases in South America and South Africa highlights the significance of…

Abstract

Toyota's internationally coordinated production system in Asia and its selection of supply bases in South America and South Africa highlights the significance of recognizing global network firms and the global hub-and-spoke logistics system that has been developed to meet their needs. This system underpins the expansion of container shipping, air freight and telecommunications. Recognition of Main Street, linking Europe, Asia and North America with cui-desacs in Africa, Australasia and Central and South America, provides a framework for examining the relative importance of the system's hubs and terminals across different modes and regions. This analysis provides the basis for identifying and ranking key regional logistics platforms in Northeast Asia and their attraction as headquarter sites for global network firms. Examining the logistical situation pertaining after the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s and a decade later is used to gauge progress towards regional economic integration in Northeast Asia.

Article
Publication date: 1 October 1994

Christos Pitelis

Aims to examine the issue of industrial strategy (IS), paying particularattention to the case of Britain. Sets out to assess the possibility andnature of an industrial…

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Abstract

Aims to examine the issue of industrial strategy (IS), paying particular attention to the case of Britain. Sets out to assess the possibility and nature of an industrial strategy for Britain, in Europe, and within the global scene, taking into account the world we live in as we see it. Accordingly, the perspective is driven and shaped by a quest for a realistic, feasible and sustainable industrial strategy. In order to achieve these objectives, first examines the theoretical arguments behind much of British, and more generally, Western industrial policies. Following this, outlines and assesses British industrial policy post‐Second World War then compares and contrasts British industrial policy with that of Europe, the USA, Japan and the newly industrialized countries. Then examines recent developments in economics and management which may explain the “Far Eastern” miracle, and points to the possibility of a successful, narrowly self‐interested, IS for Europe and Britain, based on the lessons from (new) theory and international experience. To assess what is possible, develops a theoretical framework linking firms in their roles as consumers and/or electors. This hints at the possibilities and limits of feasible policies. All these ignore desirability which, in the author′s view, should be seen in terms of distributional considerations, themselves contributors to sustainability. Accordingly, discusses a desirable industrial strategy for Britain in Europe which accounts for distributional considerations, and goes on to examine its implications for the issue of North‐South convergence. Concludes by pointing to the limitations of the analysis and to directions for developments.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 21 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 January 2009

Ewan Sutherland, Philippe Defraigne and Veronica Bocarova

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how eventual membership of the European Union is influencing reforms in South East Europe, through legislation and institutions

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate how eventual membership of the European Union is influencing reforms in South East Europe, through legislation and institutions being brought into line with EU practice.

Design/methodology/approach

The article reflects the results of monitoring exercises conducted in the Balkans with data gathered from national regulatory authorities and ministries. The approach is comparative between the countries and with the existing EU member states.

Findings

Considerable progress has been made in the opening of markets, with the issuing of new licences and the introduction of regulatory measures to support new entrants. However, many obstacles remain to be overcome.

Research limitations/implications

Determining the practical application of the legal provisions is not straightforward; there may be delays or questions of interpretation. Further work is required to determine how the changes are carried forward.

Practical implications

Further work will continue both by the authorities in South East Europe and in monitoring increased competition in mobile markets and the introduction of broadband, primarily using wireless technology.

Originality/value

Work on this region of Europe has been very limited, in part due to difficulties in gathering data.

Details

info, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6697

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 29 November 2019

Lana Kordić, Željko Mrnjavac, Blanka Šimundić and Predrag Bejaković

Many recent studies have highlighted the importance of quality of governance and institutions for economic performance. According to New Institutional Economics, the…

Abstract

Many recent studies have highlighted the importance of quality of governance and institutions for economic performance. According to New Institutional Economics, the quality of governance and institutions is a fundamental precondition for sustained increases in prosperity, well-being, and territorial cohesion. The quality of governance influences people’s health, their access to basic services, social trust, and political legitimacy. Governance encompasses the traditions and institutions by which authority in a country is exercised, and its performance can be measured. In this chapter we use the World Bank’s measure Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). The aim of the chapter is to highlight the variation of the quality of government between regions of Scandinavia and South East Europe and to analyse recent changes in South East Europe. Not surprisingly, Scandinavian regions outperform all other EU regions in quality of government, and the situation has been stable over time. In South East Europe, the situation has improved, although at a slow pace. Whereas the rule of law and government efficiency seem to be steadily increasing, the fight against corruption has been less successful.

Details

Investigating Spatial Inequalities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-942-8

Keywords

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