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1 – 10 of over 1000This paper shows the momentum strategies that selected stocks based on their returns from a past 1 week generate long lasting significant abnormal returns. I observe the negative…
Abstract
This paper shows the momentum strategies that selected stocks based on their returns from a past 1 week generate long lasting significant abnormal returns. I observe the negative momentum profit from 1 week momentum portfolio and it disappears when the holding period is longer than 22 week.
In addition, I empirically shows that the weekly momentum strategies are able to generate negative profits also after the financial crisis. it is opposite result with literature, reported positive momentum after the financial crisis, I realize this result due to the characteristic of short term weekly momentum and market adjust returns. The price limit is one of the big features of Korean stock market. I consider the set of sample period by change of price limit. I find the positive momentum profits only in the period of narrow price limit range. For the check on the relation between liquidity and profit of momentum strategy, I employ the illiquid measure of Amihud (2002). I find that the strong and long lasting negative momentum profit from illiquid stock portfolio. This result implied that liquidity enhances the profit of momentum.
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Minyeon Han, Dong-Hyun Lee and Hyoung-Goo Kang
This paper aims to replicate 148 anomalies and to examine whether the performance of the Korean market anomalies is statistically and economically significant. First, the authors…
Abstract
This paper aims to replicate 148 anomalies and to examine whether the performance of the Korean market anomalies is statistically and economically significant. First, the authors observe that only 37.8% anomalies in the universe of the KOSPI and the KOSDAQ and value-weighted portfolios have t-statistics that exceed 1.96. When the authors impose a higher threshold (an absolute value of t-statistics of 2.78), only 27.7% of the 148 anomalies survive. Second, microcaps have large impacts. The results vary significantly depending on whether the sample included stocks in the KOSDAQ and whether value-weighted or equal-weighted portfolios are used. The results suggest that data mining explains large portion of abnormal returns. Any tactical asset allocation strategies based on market anomalies should be applied very cautiously.
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This paper examines the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for aggregate New Zealand share market returns, as well as the CRSP NYSE‐AMEX (USA) index during the 1980‐2001 period. Using…
Abstract
This paper examines the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for aggregate New Zealand share market returns, as well as the CRSP NYSE‐AMEX (USA) index during the 1980‐2001 period. Using several indices, we rely on the variance‐ratio test and find evidence to support the rejection of the RWH with some evidence of a momentum effect. However, we find evidence to suggest the behaviour of share prices to be time‐dependent in New Zealand. For example, we find the indices tested were closer to random after the 1987 share market crash. Further analysis showed even stronger results for periods subsequent to the passage of the Companies Act 1993 and the Financial Reporting Act 1993. We also find evidence that indices based on large capitalisation stocks are more likely to follow a random walk compared to those based on smaller stocks. For the USA index, we find stronger evidence of random behaviour in our sample period compared to the earlier period examined by Lo and Mackinlay (1988)
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The empirical studies have indicated that the information uncertainty is one of the reasons leading to the momentum effect in the stock market. Based on this conclusion, the…
Abstract
Purpose
The empirical studies have indicated that the information uncertainty is one of the reasons leading to the momentum effect in the stock market. Based on this conclusion, the concept of “information uncertainty” is deepened into the concept hierarchy of “information ambiguity,” the purpose of this paper is to explain the momentum effect in the China’s stock market from information ambiguity.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the information ambiguity, the paper puts forward two hypotheses, portfolio analysis and cross-sectional regression analysis method were used to empirically test these hypothesis based on the weekly data.
Findings
The empirical results support the two hypotheses.
Originality/value
Finally, the paper discusses the importance from ambiguity to understand financial anomalies, such as momentum effect.
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Işıl Candemir and Cenk C. Karahan
This study aims to document the time varying risk premia for market, size, value and momentum factors for an emerging market using a sophisticated conditional asset pricing model…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to document the time varying risk premia for market, size, value and momentum factors for an emerging market using a sophisticated conditional asset pricing model. The focus of this study is Turkish stock market denominated in local currency with its peculiar risk premia.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ Gagliardini et al.'s (2016) econometric method that uses cross-sectional and time series information simultaneously to infer the path of risk premia from individual stocks.
Findings
Using this methodology, the authors assess several conditioning information and conclude that local dividend yield, inflation and exchange rates have the most explanatory power. The authors document the time varying risk premia in Turkey over three decades.
Originality/value
Existing studies on dynamic estimation of risk premia lack a consensus as to which state variables should be included and to what extent they impact the magnitude of the premium. The authors extend the conditioning information set beyond the ones existing in the literature to determine variables that are specifically important for an emerging market.
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Le Quy Duong and Philippe Bertrand
Although the solid empirical proof of momentum is documented in various stock markets, there are many debates among academics with respect to the source of momentum profit. The…
Abstract
Purpose
Although the solid empirical proof of momentum is documented in various stock markets, there are many debates among academics with respect to the source of momentum profit. The first aim of this paper is intensively re-examine the momentum profit in Vietnam, an important emerging market. Secondly, the authors study the return predictability of a measure of investors’ overreaction, then examine whether the momentum effect in Vietnam is explained by overreaction.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the weekly data of more than 300 non-financial Vietnamese stocks during 2009–2019, the authors build a measure of investors’ overreaction, which is based on trading volume and the sign of stock returns. Consequently, to investigate whether momentum exits after controlling for overreaction, the authors carefully compare trading strategies based on overreaction with price momentum strategies using adjusted returns and double sorts on past returns and levels of overreaction.
Findings
The article makes three main findings. Firstly, the authors discover the empirical evidence of momentum in the Vietnamese equity market. Secondly, the measure of overreaction could be a predictor of Vietnamese stock returns. Stocks that have experienced a stronger upward overreaction provide a higher average return. Finally, returns on trading strategies based on overreaction are robust after adjusting for momentum, while returns on momentum portfolios become insignificant after adjusting for overreaction. By double-sorting, the authors document that holding past returns constant, the average returns of portfolios rise monotonically with their measure of overreaction. Hence, the momentum profit in Vietnam arises from investors’ overreaction.
Originality/value
The paper extends previous research on the behavioral explanation of momentum in emerging stock markets, which has not been fully exploited in the literature.
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Krishna Reddy, Muhammad Ali Jibran Qamar, Nawazish Mirza and Fangwei Shi
The purpose of the study is to examine overreaction effect in the Chinese stock market after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 for all the stocks listed in Shanghai Stock…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to examine overreaction effect in the Chinese stock market after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007 for all the stocks listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite 50 index.
Design/methodology/approach
To capture overreaction effect in the stock listed at SSE 50 Index, a time series analysis of average cumulative abnormal return within a unified framework is applied for the period of January 2009 to December 2015. From these loser and winner portfolios, contrarian strategy is applied to build arbitrage portfolio, which is the difference of mean reversions between loser and winner portfolios. The portfolio construction is based on a 12-month formation period and 6-month testing period for intermediate-term analysis and. for short-term analysis, 6 month formation and 3 month testing periods. The authors also applied regression analysis to test a return reversal effect for the sampled period.
Findings
Results show that contrarian strategy yields positive excess returns for the arbitrage portfolio for most of the testing periods. The intermediate baseline case shows the arbitrage portfolio producing an average excess return of 14.1%, while even the short-term one produces 4%, which is statistically significant at the 5% level. The study finds asymmetrical overreactions in the SSE especially for loser portfolios. The biggest winner and loser portfolios follow the mean reversal effect. Moreover, before-after test for the biggest winner and loser portfolios shows that the losers recovered and beat the market immediately.
Practical implications
The study could benefit government, policy makers and regulators by studying how presence of more individual investors than institutional investors of China stock market leads to more irrational decisions giving rise to volatility. The regulators could build favourable policies for institutional investors to give them incentive to invest more than individual investors through which market volatility could be controlled.
Originality/value
This research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. The authors provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.
Contribution to Impact
This research contributes to market behaviour research, showing how working under hypotheses of overreaction; gains can be made with contrarian investment strategy through arbitrage portfolios. We provide specific additional support for the short and medium-term overreaction in the SSE for the period 2009–2015 using regression analysis.
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Julien Fouquau and Cecile Kharoubi
Risk factor investing has grown in popularity in recent years and has become a cornerstone of investment portfolios. The goal of factor investing is to generate more returns in…
Abstract
Purpose
Risk factor investing has grown in popularity in recent years and has become a cornerstone of investment portfolios. The goal of factor investing is to generate more returns in the long run. This paper aims to studies the term structure of equity factor. The authors consider the point of view of an American investor and use risk, diversification and performance measures.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors combine two methodologies as follows: wavelets and copulas. The authors use daily, weekly and monthly equity factor returns to calibrate wavelets and copulas. Copula functions are useful instruments to describe “joint” fluctuations in different markets, especially to capture nonlinearities, providing a reasonable alternative to the assumption of joint normality. To check robustness, the authors propose three different wavelet mother functions to decompose the data and three different time horizons and the authors add a complementary exercise based on performance and diversification measurement without wavelet transform.
Findings
The authors identify temporal horizons for which diversification benefits would be optimized with the decrease in the level of dependence or even the inversion of the dependence structure. Thus, investors seeking diversification with factor investing have to care about the considered horizon: size and book to market factors seem to provide better diversification in the short term. Momentum strategies seem to deliver better diversification in the long run. All the results are very consistent.
Originality/value
Very few papers have documented the diversification properties of the equity risk factors. While factors are built to capture systematic risk premia, their diversification properties are still poorly understood. It is necessary to take into account non-normality of risk factors and to study the diversification over different time horizons. The solution is to use wavelet methodology to decompose returns into temporal series of different maturities.
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The purpose of this paper is to re‐examine the sources of momentum profits by focusing on momentum in monthly returns.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to re‐examine the sources of momentum profits by focusing on momentum in monthly returns.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper utilizes a decomposition method proposed by Du and Watkins.
Findings
Different from previous studies, it is found that momentum may have multiple sources, and that risk or behavioral biases in isolation may not be sufficient to explain momentum.
Practical implications
The paper's finding that momentum may be at least partly due to risk is important for investors to understand the risk of momentum investing.
Originality/value
This paper focuses on the sources of momentum profits in monthly returns. The findings that momentum has multiple sources call for new explanations for momentum because all existing theories of momentum are either rational or behavioral. Furthermore, the finding that lead‐lag relationship plays an important role in momentum suggests that researchers should focus on mis‐reaction to common (market‐wide) information to explain momentum as emphasized by Lo and MacKinlay.
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– The purpose of this paper is to critically review the literature on contrarian and momentum trading strategies and identify areas for future research.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to critically review the literature on contrarian and momentum trading strategies and identify areas for future research.
Design/methodology/approach
Critical review and discussion of the literature.
Findings
The extant literature is dynamic and is typified by a number of open questions.
Research limitations/implications
The open questions in the literature relate mainly to the driving forces of investment performance, and the role of risk and asset pricing as well as behavioral human traits. The literature is vast and therefore difficult to classify, cover and discuss.
Practical implications
The paper indicates the possible need for: the development of different asset pricing models and propositions that can have practical implications at a more international context.
Originality/value
The paper provides a critical review of the literature and identifies open issues for future research.
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