To read this content please select one of the options below:

Overreaction and momentum in the Vietnamese stock market

Le Quy Duong (Faculty of Insurance, National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam)
Philippe Bertrand (CERGAM EA 4225, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Aix-Marseille Université, Marseille, France) (Aix-Marseille Graduate School of Management - IAE, Marseille, France) (KEDGE Business School, Marseille, France)

Managerial Finance

ISSN: 0307-4358

Article publication date: 9 August 2022

Issue publication date: 2 January 2023

91

Abstract

Purpose

Although the solid empirical proof of momentum is documented in various stock markets, there are many debates among academics with respect to the source of momentum profit. The first aim of this paper is intensively re-examine the momentum profit in Vietnam, an important emerging market. Secondly, the authors study the return predictability of a measure of investors’ overreaction, then examine whether the momentum effect in Vietnam is explained by overreaction.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the weekly data of more than 300 non-financial Vietnamese stocks during 2009–2019, the authors build a measure of investors’ overreaction, which is based on trading volume and the sign of stock returns. Consequently, to investigate whether momentum exits after controlling for overreaction, the authors carefully compare trading strategies based on overreaction with price momentum strategies using adjusted returns and double sorts on past returns and levels of overreaction.

Findings

The article makes three main findings. Firstly, the authors discover the empirical evidence of momentum in the Vietnamese equity market. Secondly, the measure of overreaction could be a predictor of Vietnamese stock returns. Stocks that have experienced a stronger upward overreaction provide a higher average return. Finally, returns on trading strategies based on overreaction are robust after adjusting for momentum, while returns on momentum portfolios become insignificant after adjusting for overreaction. By double-sorting, the authors document that holding past returns constant, the average returns of portfolios rise monotonically with their measure of overreaction. Hence, the momentum profit in Vietnam arises from investors’ overreaction.

Originality/value

The paper extends previous research on the behavioral explanation of momentum in emerging stock markets, which has not been fully exploited in the literature.

Keywords

Citation

Quy Duong, L. and Bertrand, P. (2023), "Overreaction and momentum in the Vietnamese stock market", Managerial Finance, Vol. 49 No. 1, pp. 13-28. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-01-2022-0013

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited

Related articles