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The occurrence and unpredictability of speculative bubbles on financial markets, and their accompanying crashes, have confounded economists and economic historians worldwide. The purpose of this paper is to diagnose and detect the bursting of shipping bubbles ex ante, and to qualify the patterns of shipping price dynamics and the bubble mechanics, so that appropriate counter measures can be taken in advance to reduce side effects arising from bubbles.

Log periodic power law (LPPL) model, developed in the past decade, is used to detect large market falls or “crashes” through modeling of the shipping price dynamics on a selection of three historical shipping bubbles over the period of 1985 to 2016. The method is based on a nonlinear least squares estimation that yields predictions of the most probable time of the regime switching.

It could be concluded that predictions by the LPPL model are quite dependent on the time at which they are conducted. Interestingly, the LPPL model could have predicted the substantial fall in the Baltic Dry Index during the recent global downturn, but not all crashes in the past. It is also found that the key ingredient that sets off an unsustainable growth process for shipping prices is the positive feedback. When the positive feedback starts, the burst of bubbles in shipping would be influenced by both endogenous and exogenous factors, which are crucial for the advanced warning of the market conversion.

The LPPL model has been first applied into the dry bulk shipping market to test a couple of shipping bubbles. The authors not only assess the predictability and robustness of the LPPL model but also expand the understanding of the model and explain patterns of shipping price dynamics and bubble mechanics.

This study aims to propose a theoretical model to characterize the optimal forward freight agreement (FFA) procurement strategies and investigate the determinants of FFA trading activities from a new cross-market perspective.

A two-step model specification is used to empirically test the theoretical results for the Capesize, Panamax and Supramax sectors. It is found that spot demand has a positive relation with FFA trading volume for all three sectors. Moreover, spot demand volatility has a negative relation, while the correlation between spot demand and spot rate has a positive relation with FFA trading volume for the Capesize and Panamax sectors.

The results show that the expected spot demand is scaled by a “quantity premium,” which is the product of a demand covariance term, a demand riskiness term and a demand volatility term. This can be used by the traders in the FFA market to construct their hedging strategies.

To explore the economical and reasonable semi-rigid permeable base layer ratio, solve the problems caused by rainwater washing over the pavement base layer on the slope, improve its drainage function, improve the water stability and service life of the roadbed pavement and promote the application of semi-rigid permeable base layer materials in the construction of asphalt pavement in cold regions.

In this study, three semi-rigid base course materials were designed, the mechanical strength and drainage properties were tested and the effect and correlation of air voids on their performance indexes were analyzed.

It was found that increasing the cement content increased the strength but reduced the air voids and water permeability coefficient. The permeability performance of the sandless material was superior to the dense; the performance of the two sandless materials was basically the same when the cement content was 7%. Overall, the skeleton void (sand-containing) type gradation between the sandless and dense types is more suitable as permeable semi-rigid base material; its gradation is relatively continuous, with cement content? 4.5%, strength? 1.5 MPa, water permeability coefficient? 0.8 cm/s and voids of 18–20%.

The study of permeable semi-rigid base material with large air voids could help to solve the problems of water damage and freeze-thaw damage of the base layer of asphalt pavements in cold regions and ensure the comfort and durability of asphalt pavements while having good economic and social benefits.

This study conducts a comparative study on the performance of reliability assessment methods based on adaptive surrogate models to accurately assess the reliability of automobile components, which is critical to the safe operation of vehicles.

In this study, different adaptive learning strategies and surrogate models are combined to study their performance in reliability assessment of automobile components.

By comparing the reliability evaluation problems of four automobile components, the Kriging model and Polynomial Chaos-Kriging (PCK) have better robustness. Considering the trade-off between accuracy and efficiency, PCK is optimal. The Constrained Min-Max (CMM) learning function only depends on sample information, so it is suitable for most surrogate models. In the four calculation examples, the performance of the combination of CMM and PCK is relatively good. Thus, it is recommended for reliability evaluation problems of automobile components.

Although a lot of research has been conducted on adaptive surrogate-model-based reliability evaluation method, there are still relatively few studies on the comprehensive application of this method to the reliability evaluation of automobile component. In this study, different adaptive learning strategies and surrogate models are combined to study their performance in reliability assessment of automobile components. Specially, a superior surrogate-model-based reliability evaluation method combination is illustrated in this study, which is instructive for adaptive surrogate-model-based reliability analysis in the reliability evaluation problem of automobile components.

As an advanced calculation methodology, reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO) has been widely acknowledged for the design problems of modern complex engineering systems, not only because of the accurate evaluation of the impact of uncertain factors but also the relatively good balance between economy and safety of performance. However, with the increasing complexity of engineering technology, the proposed RBMDO method gradually cannot effectively solve the higher nonlinear coupled multidisciplinary uncertainty design optimization problems, which limits the engineering application of RBMDO. Many valuable works have been done in the RBMDO field in recent decades to tackle the above challenges. This study is to review these studies systematically, highlight the research opportunities and challenges, and attempt to guide future research efforts.

This study presents a comprehensive review of the RBMDO theory, mainly including the reliability analysis methods of different uncertainties and the decoupling strategies of RBMDO.

First, the multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) preliminaries are given. The basic MDO concepts and the corresponding mathematical formulas are illustrated. Then, the procedures of three RBMDO methods with different reliability analysis strategies are introduced in detail. These RBMDO methods were proposed for the design optimization problems under different uncertainty types. Furtherly, an optimization problem for a certain operating condition of a turbine runner blade is introduced to illustrate the engineering application of the above method. Finally, three aspects of future challenges for RBMDO, namely, time-varying uncertainty analysis; high-precision surrogate models, and verification, validation and accreditation (VVA) for the model, are discussed followed by the conclusion.

The scope of this study is to introduce the RBMDO theory systematically. Three commonly used RBMDO-SORA methods are reviewed comprehensively, including the methods' general procedures and mathematical models.

With the analysis of the causes of corruption, this study aims to investigate specific anti-corruption measures that can be implemented to reform the political system and the social climate of China.

This study examines 97 severe corruption cases of high-ranking officials in China, which occurred between 2012 and 2015. As this insinuates that both institutional and social corruption are major problems in China, the analysis delves into multiple facts of corruption, including different types, four primary underlying causes, and suggestions regarding the implementation of three significant governmental shifts that focus on investigation, prevention tactics and legal regulations.

China’s corruption is not only individual-based but also it has developed into institutional corruption and social corruption. Besides human nature and instinct, the causes of corruption can be organised into four categories, namely, social customs, social transitions, institutional designs and institutional operations. For the removed high-ranking officials, the formation of interest chains was an important underlying cause behind their corruption.

This study makes a significant contribution to the literature because this study provides a well-rounded approach to a complex issue by highlighting the significance of democracy and the rule of law as ways to regulate human behaviour to combat future corruption.

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporation innovation in innovative cities. The study sheds light on different results from the previous literature by testing the moderator effects of entrepreneurial risk appetite on such impact.

A static panel estimator is applied to a Chinese sample of 416 firm-year observations from 2010 to 2019. This paper uses regression model to test the impact of uncertainty on enterprise innovation in innovative cities, and to test the regulatory role of entrepreneurial risk appetite. For a series of robustness analysis conducted by the author to deal with endogeneity, the results are robust.

The author finds reliable evidence that the economic policy uncertainty can promote corporations to invest more in R&D in innovative cities. In addition, the role of the entrepreneurial initiative is significant, and there is a positive moderating effect of entrepreneurial risk appetite between policy uncertainty and corporation innovation.

From a practical point of view, this study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporation innovation in innovative cities for the first time. It emphasizes the role of entrepreneurial risk-taking in the development of corporation innovation in Shenzhen, an innovative city. This research is of great significance to the formulation of government policies and the innovative choice of entrepreneurs. In addition, the research shows that the entrepreneurial risk appetite in innovative cities can have a positive impact on enterprise innovation. Therefore, when formulating policies, the government should take the subjective factors of entrepreneurs into account and support enterprises with innovation potential. The evidence of this study also helps entrepreneurs make innovative decisions and enhance their confidence in enterprise development.

By studying the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise innovation under the regulation of enterprise risk appetite, this study shows the subjective and positive role of entrepreneurs in risk grasp in innovative cities for the first time. In addition, it fills the gap of the impact of policy uncertainty on innovative urban enterprises. In fact, although it is traditionally believed that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on enterprise innovation, the sensitive findings of this study reveal completely different results from previous studies.

This study aims to investigate the structural characteristics, spatial evolution paths and internal driving mechanisms of the knowledge transfer (KT) network in China’s patent-intensive industries (PIIs). The authors' goal is to provide valuable insights to inform policy-making that fosters the development of relevant industries. The authors also aim to offer a fresh perspective for future spatiotemporal studies on industrial KT and innovation networks.

In this study, the authors analyze the patent transfer (PT) data of listed companies in China’s information and communication technology (ICT) industry, spanning from 2010 to 2021. The authors use social network analysis and the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) method to explore the problem of China’s PIIs KT from the perspectives of technical characteristics evolution, network and spatial evolution and internal driving mechanisms.

The results indicate that the knowledge fields involved in the PT of China’s ICT industry primarily focus on digital information transmission technology. From 2010 to 2021, the scale of the ICT industry’s KT network expanded rapidly. However, the polarization of industrial knowledge distribution is becoming more serious. QAP regression analysis shows that economic proximity and geographical proximity do not affect KT activities. The similarity of knowledge application capacity, innovation capacity and technology demand categories in various regions has a certain degree of impact on KT in the ICT industry.

The current research on PIIs mainly focuses on measuring economic contributions and innovation efficiency, but less on KT in PIIs. This study explores KT in PIIs from the perspectives of technological characteristics, network and spatial evolution. The authors propose a theoretical framework to understand the internal driving mechanisms of industrial KT networks.