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This study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether structural changes have occurred, at the onset of civil war, with respect to economic development and population during the period from 1945 to 1999.

In the Bayesian logit regression changepoint model, parameters of covariates are allowed to shift individually, regime transitions can move back and forth, and the model is applicable to cross-sectional, time-series data.

Contrary to popular belief that the causal process of civil war changed with the end of the Cold War, the empirical analysis shows that the regression relationships between civil war and economic development, as well as between civil war and population, remain quite stable during the study period.

This is the first to develop a Bayesian logit regression changepoint model and to apply it to studies of economic development and civil war.

This study proposes spatial origin-destination threshold Tobit to address spatial interdependence among bilateral trade flows while accounting for zero trade volumes.

This model is designed to capture multiple forms of spatial autocorrelation embedded in “directional” trade flows. The authors apply this improved model to export flows among 32 Asian countries in 1990.

The empirical results indicate the presence of all three types of spatial dependence: exporter-based, importer-based and exporter-to-importer-based. After further considering multifaceted spatial correlation in bilateral trade flows, the authors find that the effect of conventional trade variables changes in a noticeable way.

This finding implies that the standard gravity model may produce biased estimates if it does not take spatial dependence into account.

This paper attempts to offer an improved model of the standard gravity model by taking spatial dependence into account.

The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints on foreign debt.

A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 68 developing countries during the period from 1981 to 1999 was performed.

Foreign borrowing is most likely to increase at both low and high levels of legislative constraints, while it is most likely to decrease at moderate levels.

The paper is a first-cut empirical analysis of a curvilinear relationship between legislative constraints and foreign debt.