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1 – 10 of over 1000
Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Te-Kuan Lee and Askar Koshoev

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.

Findings

The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Valeriia Baklanova, Aleksei Kurkin and Tamara Teplova

The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the influence of investor sentiment on the overall sales of non-fungible token (NFT) assets. To achieve this objective, the NFT hype index was constructed as well as several approaches of XAI were employed to interpret Black Box models and assess the magnitude and direction of the impact of the features used.

Design/methodology/approach

The research paper involved the construction of a sentiment index termed the NFT hype index, which aims to measure the influence of market actors within the NFT industry. This index was created by analyzing written content posted by 62 high-profile individuals and opinion leaders on the social media platform Twitter. The authors collected posts from the Twitter accounts that were afterward classified by tonality with a help of natural language processing model VADER. Then the machine learning methods and XAI approaches (feature importance, permutation importance and SHAP) were applied to explain the obtained results.

Findings

The built index was subjected to rigorous analysis using the gradient boosting regressor model and explainable AI techniques, which confirmed its significant explanatory power. Remarkably, the NFT hype index exhibited a higher degree of predictive accuracy compared to the well-known sentiment indices.

Practical implications

The NFT hype index, constructed from Twitter textual data, functions as an innovative, sentiment-based indicator for investment decision-making in the NFT market. It offers investors unique insights into the market sentiment that can be used alongside conventional financial analysis techniques to enhance risk management, portfolio optimization and overall investment outcomes within the rapidly evolving NFT ecosystem. Thus, the index plays a crucial role in facilitating well-informed, data-driven investment decisions and ensuring a competitive edge in the digital assets market.

Originality/value

The authors developed a novel index of investor interest for NFT assets (NFT hype index) based on text messages posted by market influencers and compared it to conventional sentiment indices in terms of their explanatory power. With the application of explainable AI, it was shown that sentiment indices may perform as significant predictors for NFT sales and that the NFT hype index works best among all sentiment indices considered.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 January 2023

Mehdi Mili, Asma Yahiya Al Amoodi and Hana Bawazir

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the asymmetric impact of daily announcements regarding COVID-19 on investor sentiment in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distribution Lag (NARDL) model that relies on positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the Coronavirus indicators. Five investor sentiments had been used and the analysis is conducted on the full sample period from 24th February 2020 to 25th March 2021.

Findings

The results show that new cases have a greater impact on investor sentiment compared to daily announcements of new deaths related to COVID-19. In addition to revealing a significant impact of new COVID-19 new cases and new death announcements on a daily basis on investor sentiment over the short- and long-term, this paper also highlights the nonlinearity and asymmetry of this relationship in the short and long run. Investors' sentiments are more affected by negative news regarding Covid 19 than positive news.

Originality/value

Financial markets have been severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. This study is the first to measure the extent of reaction of investors to positive and negative announcements of COVID-19. Interestingly, this study examines the asymmetric effect of daily announcements on new cases and new deaths by COVID-19 on investor sentiments and derive many implications for portfolio managers.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Qiang Bu and Jeffrey Forrest

The authors compare sentiment level with sentiment shock from different angles to determine which measure better captures the relationship between sentiment and stock returns.

Abstract

Purpose

The authors compare sentiment level with sentiment shock from different angles to determine which measure better captures the relationship between sentiment and stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporaneous stock returns. It also proposes a model of systems science to explain the empirical findings.

Findings

The authors find that sentiment shock has a higher explanatory power on stock returns than sentiment itself, and sentiment shock beta exhibits a much higher statistical significance than sentiment beta. Compared with sentiment level, sentiment shock has a more robust linkage to the market factors and the sentiment shock is more responsive to stock returns.

Originality/value

This is the first study to compare sentiment level and sentiment shock. It concludes that sentiment shock is a better indicator of the relationship between investor sentiment and contemporary stock returns.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 October 2021

Hongli Niu, Yao Lu and Weiqing Wang

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the investor sentiment and the return of various sectors in the Chinese stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between the investor sentiment and the return of various sectors in the Chinese stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The wavelet coherence and wavelet phase angle approaches are used to study the lead–lag associations between sentiment index and stock returns in a time–frequency way. The multiscale linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are performed to explore whether there is a causality between them.

Findings

The empirical results show that during normal period, investor sentiment index has a stronger relationship with stock returns of industrials, consumer discretionary, health care, utilities, real estate and financial sectors. In crisis period, investor sentiment has a significant positive relationship with all industry sectors. In the short term, there is bidirectional causality between investor sentiment and stock returns of all sectors. In the medium and long run, almost all sector stock returns Granger-cause the investors' sentiment index but investor sentiment does not Granger-cause all sectors, which is in contrast to the developed markets.

Practical implications

The interindustry impact of investment sentiment on the stock market can help construct arbitrage portfolio by investors who are interested in Chinese stock market.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on the industry sector differences of investor sentiment impact on the Chinese stock market. As far as the authors know, this is the first paper to explore the time–frequency relationship between sentiment index and industry stock returns in China using the time–frequency method based on wavelet coherence, which considers the heterogeneity of different types of investors' responses to various economic and financial events.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 June 2022

Hayet Soltani and Mouna Boujelbene Abbes

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both of stock prices and investor's sentiment in China during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both of stock prices and investor's sentiment in China during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the ADCC-GARCH model was used to analyze the asymmetric volatility and the time-varying conditional correlation among the Chinese stock market, the investors' sentiment and its variation. The authors relied on Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) methodology to construct network-associated measures. Then, the wavelet coherence model was applied to explore the co-movements between these variables. To check the robustness of the study results, the authors referred to the RavenPack COVID sentiments and the Chinese VIX, as other measures of the investor's sentiment using daily data from December 2019 to December 2021.

Findings

Using the ADCC-GARCH model, a strong co-movement was found between the investor's sentiment and the Shanghai index returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study results provide a significant peak of connectivity between the investor's sentiment and the Chinese stock market return during the 2015–2016 and the end of 2019–2020 turmoil periods. These periods coincide, respectively, with the 2015 Chinese economy recession and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence analysis confirms the ADCC results, which revealed that the used proxies of the investor's sentiment can detect the Chinese investors' behavior especially during the health crisis.

Practical implications

This study provides two main types of implications: on the one hand, for investors since it helps them to understand the economic outlook and accordingly design their portfolio strategy and allocate decisions to optimize their portfolios. On the other hand, for portfolios managers, who should pay attention to the volatility spillovers between investor sentiment and the Chinese stock market to predict the financial market dynamics during crises periods and hedge their portfolios.

Originality/value

This study attempted to examine the time-varying interactions between the investor's sentiment proxies and the stock market dynamics. Findings showed that the investor's sentiment is considered a prominent channel of shock spillovers during the COVID-19 crisis, which typically confirms the behavioral contagion theory.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2023

Fatma Hachicha

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

Design/methodology/approach

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Findings

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Originality/value

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 July 2023

Yang Gao, Wanqi Zheng and Yaojun Wang

This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price…

133

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price fluctuations.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop four indicators used for risk contagion analysis, including Internet investors and news sentiments constructed by the FinBERT model, together with realized and jump volatilities yielded by high-frequency data. The authors also apply the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model-based and the tail-based connectedness framework to investigate the interdependence of tail risk during catastrophic events.

Findings

The empirical analysis provides meaningful results related to the COVID-19 pandemic, stock market conditions and tail behavior. The results show that after the outbreak of COVID-19, the connectivity between risk spillovers in China's stock market has grown, indicating the increased instability of the connected system and enhanced connectivity in the tail. The changes in network structure during COVID-19 pandemic are not only reflected by the increased spillover connectivity but also by the closer relationships between some industries. The authors also found that major public events could significantly impact total connectedness. In addition, spillovers and network structures vary with market conditions and tend to exhibit a highly connected network structure during extreme market status.

Originality/value

The results confirm the connectivity between sentiments and volatilities spillovers in China's stock market, especially in the tails. The conclusion further expands the practical application and theoretical framework of behavioral finance and also lays a theoretical basis for investors to focus on the practical application of volatility prediction and risk management across stock sectors.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 February 2024

Dorra Messaoud and Anis Ben Amar

Based on the theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the sentiment-herding relationship in emerging stock markets (ESMs). First, it aims to examine the effect of investor…

Abstract

Purpose

Based on the theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the sentiment-herding relationship in emerging stock markets (ESMs). First, it aims to examine the effect of investor sentiment on herding. Second, it seeks the direction of causality between sentiment and herding time series.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study applies the Exponential Generalized Auto_Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to capture the volatility clustering of herding on the financial market and to investigate the role of the investor sentiment on herding behaviour. Then the vector autoregression (VAR) estimation uses the Granger causality test to determine the direction of causality between the investor sentiment and herding. This study uses a sample consisting of stocks listed on the Shanghai Composite index (SSE) (348 stocks), the Jakarta composite index (JKSE) (118 stocks), the Mexico IPC index (14 stocks), the Russian Trading System index (RTS) (12 stocks), the Warsaw stock exchange General index (WGI) (106 stocks) and the FTSE/JSE Africa all-share index (76 stocks). The sample includes 5,020 daily observations from February 1, 2002, to March 31, 2021.

Findings

The research findings show that the sentiment has a significant negative impact on the herding behaviour pointing out that the higher the investor sentiment, the lower the herding. However, the results of the present study indicate that a higher investor sentiment conducts a higher herding behaviour during market downturns. Then the outcomes suggest that during the crisis period, the direction is one-way, from the investor sentiment to the herding behaviour.

Practical implications

The findings may have implications for universal policies of financial regulators in EMs. We have found evidence that the Emerging investor sentiment contributes to the investor herding behaviour. Therefore, the irrational investor herding behaviour can increase the stock market volatility, and in extreme cases, it may lead to bubbles and crashes. Market regulators could implement mechanisms that can supervise the investor sentiment and predict the investor herding behaviour, so they make policies helping stabilise stock markets.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper lies in investigate the sentiment-herding relationship during the Surprime crisis and the Covid-19 epidemic in the EMs.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Elena Fedorova and Polina Iasakova

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

143

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical basis of the study was 3,209 news articles. Sentiment analysis was performed by a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Thematic modeling is based on the neural network, BERTopic.

Findings

The results show that news sentiment can influence the dynamics of stock indices. In addition, five main news topics (finance and politics natural disasters and consequences industrial sector and Innovations activism and culture coronavirus pandemic) were identified, which showed a significant impact on the financial market.

Originality/value

First, we extend the theoretical concepts. This study applies signaling theory and overreaction theory to the US stock market in the context of climate change. Second, in addition to the news sentiment, the impact of major news topics on US stock market returns is examined. Third, we examine the impact of sentimental and thematic news variables on US stock market indicators of economic sectors. Previous works reveal the impact of climate change news on specific sectors of the economy. This paper includes stock indices of the economic sectors most related to the topic of climate change. Fourth, the research methodology consists of modern algorithms. An advanced textual analysis method for sentiment classification is applied: a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Modern thematic modeling is carried out using a model based on the neural network, BERTopic. The most extensive topics are “finance and politics of climate change” and “natural disasters and consequences.”

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

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