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Article
Publication date: 26 October 2021

Sohil Idnani, Masudul Hasan Adil, Hoshiar Mal and Ashutosh Kolte

This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex returns and volatility index (Vix).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ bounds testing approach to cointegration to capture the short-and long-run effects of EPU on investors' sentiment, along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions to check the effect of a shock on Sensex and Vix.

Findings

The study concludes the existence of a cointegrating relationship for both models, that is, Vix and Sensex. In the long-run, changes in EPU_India affect Vix and Sensex positively and negatively, respectively. On the other hand, EPU_USA affects Vix and Sensex positively. Furthermore, Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration with endogenous structural break reveals a long-run cointegrating relationship for both models.

Research limitations/implications

The effect of EPUs on investors' sentiment reveals that when there is an uncertain event that adversely affects the stock prices, investors should not make haste to take a decision as the impact on stock prices perturbation might be temporary. Therefore, one should persevere for the dip in prices to hit the desired target.

Originality/value

Various studies look at the effect of cross-country EPU on the home country, However, there is no such study in the Indian context. The present study examines the impact of India's EPU on investors' sentiments after controlling the USA's EPU, one of India's largest trading partners and a key determinant of global economic policy.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 20 May 2024

Isha Narula, Ankita Dawar and Khushi Sehgal

Introduction: The Stock Exchange is an economic indicator of sustainability in the global market over an extended period. The Indian economy has observed a downfall in foreign…

Abstract

Introduction: The Stock Exchange is an economic indicator of sustainability in the global market over an extended period. The Indian economy has observed a downfall in foreign currency in quarter 2 of 2022, as per the reports of the International Monitory Fund. The central banks of many countries have been facing crises because of a piercing decline in their reserves, which is additionally affecting their sustainable performance. The Indian economy is one of the most potentially sound economies emerging as a global leader, and this study is an attempt to understand the economy’s vulnerability to foreign factors.

Purpose: The research explores the impact of the US Dollar, EURO and Japanese Yen on Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange Index.

Methodology: Four variables have been considered for the conduct of the study: Sensex, Nifty, inflation and foreign exchange. Sensex and Nifty have been taken as dependent variables, while foreign exchange and inflation have been taken as independent variables.

The regression analysis has been performed using Microsoft Excel: The variables used for the study are monthly values from January 2011 to December 2020. The specific period is selected to avoid the impact of COVID-19 on the stock market, avoiding biases in the results.

Findings: All the variables are affecting the performance of each other up to a certain level.

Practical Implication: The research chapter will help the investor understand the relationship between many variables and their impact on the stock market, which will assist them in gaining higher profits.

Details

Sustainable Development Goals: The Impact of Sustainability Measures on Wellbeing
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83549-460-8

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 22 July 2024

Kokila. K and Shaik Saleem

The world of investing has changed drastically. Investors are willing to invest the companies that give high priority to environmental, social and governance issues (ESG). This…

Abstract

The world of investing has changed drastically. Investors are willing to invest the companies that give high priority to environmental, social and governance issues (ESG). This study delves into the performance of the BSE CARBONEX index in comparison to the BSE 100, BSE Sensex, BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas. It seeks to examine the impact of calendar anomalies, particularly focusing on the day-of-the-week effect, on these indices. To accomplish this, daily closing prices of the BSE CARBONEX, BSE 100, BSE Sensex, BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas were gathered from the BSE official website. The study period was divided into three segments: the full period, period I (2017–2020) and period II (2020–2022). The study's findings reveal that throughout the full period, period I and period II, BSE Energy exhibited the highest mean daily return compared to the other selected indices. There appears to be a discernible Tuesday effect on the daily average mean returns of BSE CARBONEX, BSE 100, BSE Sensex, BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas in both the full sample period and period II. Results from ordinary least squares (OLS) analysis by day indicate a notably high positive and statistically significant daily return on Tuesdays, particularly during the full sample period and period II. Furthermore, the GARCH (1,1) model suggests a significant Tuesday effect on the BSE Energy and BSE Oil & Gas indices.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-752-0

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 August 2022

Pramath Nath Acharya, Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal and Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra

In the research of stock market efficiency, it is argued that the stock market moves randomly and absorbs all the available information. As a result, it is quite impossible to…

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Abstract

Purpose

In the research of stock market efficiency, it is argued that the stock market moves randomly and absorbs all the available information. As a result, it is quite impossible to make predictions about the possible future movement by the investors. But literatures have detected certain calendar anomalies where a day(s) in a week or month(s) in a year or a particular event in a year becomes conducive for investors to earn more than the normal. Hence, the purpose of this study is to find out the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, daily time series data of Sensex and Nifty from 1996 to 2021 is used. The study uses month dummies to capture the effect. Different variants of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, both symmetric and asymmetric, are used in the study to model the conditional volatility in the presence month effect.

Findings

This study found the September effect in the return series of both the stock market. Apart from that, asymmetric GARCH models are found to be the best fit model to estimate conditional volatility.

Originality/value

This study is an endeavour to study month of the year effect in the Indian context. This research will provide valuable insight for studying the different calendar anomalies.

Details

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0973-1954

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 August 2024

Srivatsa Maddodi and Srinivasa Rao Kunte

This study explores the complex impact of COVID-19 on India's financial sector, moving beyond simplistic public health vs. economy views. We assess market vulnerabilities and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study explores the complex impact of COVID-19 on India's financial sector, moving beyond simplistic public health vs. economy views. We assess market vulnerabilities and analyze how public sentiment, measured through Google Trends, can predict stock market fluctuations. We propose a novel framework using Google Trends for financial sentiment analysis, aiming to improve understanding and preparedness for future crises.

Design/methodology/approach

Hybrid approach leverages Google Trends as sentiment tool, market data, and momentum indicators like Rate of Change, Average Directional Index and Stochastic Oscillator, to deliver accurate, market insights for informed investment decisions during pandemic.

Findings

Our study reveals that the pandemic significantly impacted the Indian financial sector, highlighting its vulnerabilities. Capitalizing on this insight, we built a ground-breaking predictive model with an impressive 98.95% maximum accuracy in forecasting stock market values during such events.

Originality/value

To the best of authors knowledge this model's originality lies in its focus on short-term impact, novel data fusion and methodology, and high accuracy.• Focus on short-term impact: Our model uniquely identifies and quantifies the fleeting effects of COVID-19 on market behavior.• Novel data fusion and framework: A novel framework of sentiment analysis was introduced in the form of Trend Popularity Index. Combining trend popularity index with momentum offers a comprehensive and dynamic approach to predicting market movements during volatile periods.• High predictive accuracy: Achieving the prediction accuracy (98.93%) sets this model apart from existing solutions, making it a valuable tool for informed decision-making.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 June 2024

Kokila Kalimuthu and Saleem Shaik

This paper aims to analyse the weekday effect on the Nifty Shariah indices as per the Islamic calendar. The study is intended to know about the return and volatility of these…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyse the weekday effect on the Nifty Shariah indices as per the Islamic calendar. The study is intended to know about the return and volatility of these indices during Ramadhan and non-Ramadhan days.

Design/methodology/approach

The study focuses on analysing the Nifty Shariah indices and Sensex daily returns collected from NSE India and BSE India, respectively, during the period of 1 August 2016 to 31 July 2022. Descriptive statistics are used to analyse the data, while the Ordinary Least Square method is used to determine the impact of weekdays on the Nifty Shariah indices. Additionally, the study applies the GARCH statistical model to examine the influence of Ramadhan on the returns and volatility of the Nifty Shariah indices.

Findings

All of the Nifty Shariah indices produced positive returns during the overall sample period. According to the study, Tuesday index returns outperform other weekdays. The GARCH model indicated that the coefficient values for the Nifty 50 Shariah and Nifty 500 Shariah indices were negative. Ramadhan has a strong negative effect on volatility, according to this study.

Originality/value

The outcomes of the research are beneficial for investors aiming to exploit daily or weekly price fluctuations, rather than pursuing extended investment periods. Furthermore, fund managers can employ these findings to shape trading strategies, and academics can examine the performance of Shariah indices in the Indian context. This enables devout investors to make significant financial choices, thus advancing ethical values in society and upholding standards of both public and private morality.

Details

Journal of Islamic Marketing, vol. 15 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0833

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2022

Berna Aydoğan, Gülin Vardar and Caner Taçoğlu

The existence of long memory and persistent volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies justifies the investigation of return and volatility/shock spillovers between…

Abstract

Purpose

The existence of long memory and persistent volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies justifies the investigation of return and volatility/shock spillovers between traditional financial market asset classes and cryptocurrencies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between the cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum, and stock market indices of G7 and E7 countries to analyze the return and volatility spillover patterns among these markets by means of multivariate (MGARCH) approach.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying the newly developed VAR-GARCH-in mean framework with the BEKK representation, the empirical results reveal that there exists an evidence of mean and volatility spillover effects among Bitcoin and Ethereum as the proxies for the cryptocurrencies, and stock markets reviewed.

Findings

Interestingly, the direction of the return and volatility spillover effects is unidirectional in most E7 countries, but bidirectional relationship was found in most G7 countries. This can be explained as the presence of a strong return and volatility interaction among G7 stock markets and crypto market.

Originality/value

Overall, the results of this study are of particular interest for portfolio management since it provides insights for financial market participants to make better portfolio allocation decisions. It is also increasingly important to understand the volatility transmission mechanism across these markets to provide policymakers and regulatory bodies with guidance to eliminate the negative impact of cryptocurrency's volatility on the stability of financial markets.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 40 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 January 2022

Raktim Ghosh, Bhaskar Bagchi and Susmita Chatterjee

The paper tries to analyse empirically the impact of India's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on different macro-economic variables of India, like import, export, interest…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper tries to analyse empirically the impact of India's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on different macro-economic variables of India, like import, export, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate and stock market during pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era.

Design/methodology/approach

Although there exist several works where relationship and volatility among the stock markets and macro-economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic have been estimated, but till now none of the studies examined the effect of EPU index on different macro-economic variables in the Indian context along with the stock market due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. This is considered a noteworthy gap and hence opens up a new dimension for examination. To get a clear picture, monthly data from January, 2012 to September, 2021 have been considered where January, 2012–February, 2020 is taken as the pre-COVID-19 period and March, 2020–September, 2021 as COVID-19 period. All the data are converted into log natural. The authors applied DCC-GARCH model to investigate the impact of EPU index on volatility of selected variables over the study period across a multivariate framework and Markov regime-switching model to examine the switching over of the variables.

Findings

The results of dynamic conditional correlation - multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model indicates the presence of volatility in the dependent variables arising out of economic policy uncertainty considering the segmentation of the study period into pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19. The results of Markov regime-switching model show the variables make a significant move from low-volatility regime to high-volatility regime due to the presence of COVID-19.

Research limitations/implications

It can be implied that impact of EPU in terms of volatility on the Indian Stock Market will lead to unfavourable investment conditions for the prospective investors. Even, the different macro-economic variables are to suffer from the volatility arising out of EPU across a long time horizon as confirmed from the DCC-MGARCH model.

Originality/value

The study is original in nature. It adds superior values from the new and significant findings from the study empirically. Application of DCC-MGARCH model and Markov regime switching model makes the study an innovative one in terms of methodology and findings.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2054-6238

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 June 2024

Kirti Khanna, Vikas Sharma and Munish Gupta

COVID-19 has been the subject of a number of inquiries recently. All country's capital market practices have been affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Economic woes, along with the…

Abstract

Introduction

COVID-19 has been the subject of a number of inquiries recently. All country's capital market practices have been affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Economic woes, along with the stock market crash, have hit emerging markets and developing economies in a variety of directions.

Purpose

This study is an attempt to focus on the Indian economy to provide the gist of the situation and recovery mode of an economy with the help of growth indicators of the economy.

Methodology

This study is based on secondary data. The researchers applied some econometric tools, viz, unit root test Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Panel Granger Causality, and Panel ARDL Bound Test were applied to examine the relationship of economic indicators and stock market benchmark in two periods: March 2020–June 2021 (during period) and July 2021 to March 2022 (post period).

Findings

The findings of this study explored the different causal relationships for the selected variables in both periods. The study discussed the reasons for ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) bound for all selected factors. The study revealed the story of crude oil prices and Gold as trusted investment avenues during the crises.

Significance/Value

As we know, the capital market's backlash is reflected in movements in stock prices and stock exchange volume, which are concerned with the economic effects of the pandemic and urged the segment to react. Investors can use the information in the event to make investment decisions.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 May 2024

Tapas Kumar Sethy and Naliniprava Tripathy

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on the conditional volatility of the equity market.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study employs the Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) for pricing systematic liquidity risk using the Fama & MacBeth cross-sectional regression model in the Indian stock market from January 1, 2012, to March 31, 2021. Further, the study employed an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (1,1) model to observe the impact of decomposed illiquidity on the equity market’s conditional volatility. The study also uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to illuminate the return-volatility-liquidity relationship.

Findings

The study’s findings indicate that the commonality between individual security liquidity and aggregate liquidity is positive, and the covariance of individual security liquidity and the market return negatively affects the expected return. The study’s outcome specifies that illiquidity time series analysis exhibits the asymmetric effect of directional change in return on illiquidity. Further, the study indicates a significant impact of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on conditional volatility. This suggests an asymmetric effect of illiquidity shocks on conditional volatility in the Indian stock market.

Originality/value

This study is one of the few studies that used the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to measure liquidity and market risks as specified in the LCAPM. Further, the findings of the reverse impact of illiquidity and decomposed higher and lower illiquidity on conditional volatility confirm the presence of price informativeness and its immediate effects on illiquidity in the Indian stock market. The study strengthens earlier studies and offers new insights into stock market liquidity to clarify the association between liquidity and stock return for effective policy and strategy formulation that can benefit investors.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

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