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Tourism faces a range of interconnected and potentially transformative global risks – collectively considered an evolving polycrisis – that have not been adequately defined and understood. As a result, the industry struggles to proactively anticipate and mitigate potential future challenges, while governments lack insight for strategic longer-term decision-making on tourism development. The purpose of this paper is to advance tourism sector consideration of global change threats and their complex interactions and more effectively incorporate these risks into tourism futures planning.

This conceptual gap is addressed through a discussion of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Reports, and their definition of environmental, economic, geopolitical, societal and technological risk categories. In applying results to tourism, a preliminary expert assessment of global risks serves as a foundational framework to incorporate potential global change threats more effectively into tourism futures planning and decision-making.

Additional research should be prioritized to examine global risks most influential of tourism, how and where they may interact, how to convert risk categories into measurable indicators and to evaluate whether risk assessments can contribute to mitigating the evolving polycrisis.

This paper discusses the systematic and strategic engagement with global risks for tourism, critically reviews the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Reports from tourism perspective, presents key risk dimensions driving future tourism development, provides a foundational framework to further assess global risk for tourism and compels tourism academy to prioritize global change research agenda.

旅游业面临一系列相互关联并且具有潜在变革性的全球风险——这些风险被统称为不断演变的多重危机——尚未得到充分定义和理解。因此, 行业难以主动积极预测和应对未来的挑战, 而政府在旅游发展中的长期战略决策上也缺乏洞见。

本文通过讨论世界经济论坛的《全球风险报告》及其对环境、经济、地缘政治、社会和技术风险类别的定义, 弥补了这一概念上的空白。在将这些结果应用于旅游业时, 初步的专家评估为更有效地将潜在的全球变化威胁纳入旅游业未来规划和决策提供了基础框架。

应优先开展进一步研究, 以探讨对旅游业影响最大的全球风险、这些风险可能如何以及在何处相互作用、如何将风险类别转化为可衡量的指标, 以及风险评估是否有助于缓解不断演变的多重危机。

讨论了旅游业与全球风险的系统性和战略性应对; 从旅游业的角度批判性地审视了世界经济论坛的《全球风险报告》; · 提出了驱动未来旅游业发展的关键风险维度; · 提供了进一步评估旅游业全球风险的基础框架; · 呼吁旅游学界优先关注全球变化研究议程。

El turismo se enfrenta a una serie de riesgos mundiales interconectados y potencialmente transformadores-considerados globalmente como policrisis en evolución-que no se han definido ni comprendido adecuadamente. En consecuencia, el sector se esfuerza por anticipar y mitigar de forma proactiva los posibles retos futuros, mientras que los gobiernos carecen de información para tomar decisiones estratégicas a largo plazo sobre el desarrollo del turismo.

Esta laguna conceptual se aborda mediante un análisis de los Informes sobre Riesgos Globales del Foro Económico Mundial y su definición de las categorías de riesgo medioambiental, económico, geopolítico, social y tecnológico. Al aplicar los resultados al turismo, una evaluación preliminar de los riesgos mundiales realizada por expertos proporciona un marco fundacional para incorporar más eficazmente las posibles amenazas del cambio global a la planificación y toma de decisiones sobre el futuro del turismo.

Debe darse prioridad a la investigación adicional para examinar los riesgos globales que más influyen en el turismo, cómo y dónde pueden interactuar, cómo convertir las categorías de riesgo en indicadores medibles y evaluar si las evaluaciones de riesgo pueden contribuir a mitigar la policrisis en evolución.

Analiza el compromiso sistemático y estratégico con los riesgos globales para el turismo; Revisa críticamente los Informes sobre Riesgos Globales del Foro Económico Mundial desde la perspectiva del turismo; Presenta las principales dimensiones del riesgo que impulsan el futuro desarrollo del turismo; Proporciona un marco básico para evaluar el riesgo mundial para el turismo; Precisa a la academia del turismo a priorizar la agenda de investigación sobre el cambio global.

This study aims to examine the effect of CEO compensation risk, as measured by the proportion of equity-based pay (option and stock awards) relative to total compensation and pay sensitivity to stock volatility, on CEO pay for luck asymmetry. This paper also empirically examines CEO compensation risk as a mediating variable between the regulatory changes and CEO pay for luck asymmetry.

This paper test the proposed two hypothesis that CEO compensation risk is positively associated with the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry; and the pay related regulations implemented around 2006 could mitigate the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry using the fixed-effects regression models.

Consistent with the managerial talent retention hypothesis, this paper finds that CEO compensation risk, as measured by the equity-based pay as a proportion of CEO total compensation and CEO pay sensitivity to stock volatility, is positively associated with the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry. In addition, this paper find that CEO pay for luck asymmetry is significantly reduced by the major regulatory changes on executive compensation implemented around 2006.

This study is among the very few studies exploring the impact of CEO compensation risk on pay for luck asymmetry in the literature. While the major purpose of the widely used stock options is to align executive interests and shareholder values, it also tends to increase the risk level of CEO compensation. So, a well-designed CEO pay package should protect risk-averse CEOs from bad luck for the retention purpose, which is also beneficial to shareholder wealth maximization. Therefore, future research on executive compensation needs to examine the issue from various perspectives.

For board of directors who is responsible for the compensation of CEOs, it is necessary to consider a broad range of factors when designing an optimal CEO pay package.

The findings on the impact of regulations on CEO pay for luck asymmetry suggest that the executive-pay-related regulations around 2006 have indeed achieved some of their intended goals to significantly lower pay for nonperformance asymmetry, whereby CEO pay sensitivity to stock volatility has been identified as a major mediating variable.

This study contributes to the literature on executive pay for luck asymmetry in several perspectives. First, this paper finds that CEO compensation risk has a positive impact on the degree of CEO pay for luck asymmetry. Second, this paper finds that the CEO pay for luck asymmetry has been mitigated after 2006 when various regulatory changes on executive compensation began to be implemented in the USA. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the very few studies investigating these issues in the literature.

The study analysed the aerospace industry, a traditionally important sector for the topic of risk management, from three complementary perspectives: the supply chain risks present in the sector, the mitigation strategies adopted to face them, and the characteristics (dimensions) observed in the SCRM process of aerospace companies.

The research employed a quali–quantitative method: a survey was carried out, followed by interviews with professionals from companies belonging to different tiers of aerospace supply chains. Interviews helped to interpret the survey data and understand in more detail risk management in aerospace companies.

The study presents a panorama of the aerospace industry in terms of risk management. The sector’s turbulent environment is described as well as the strategies to prevent, minimise or postpone the impact of supply chain risks. In particular, ten dimensions that have been identified in the SCRM process of aerospace firms are discussed. These characteristics influence the objectives of this process and are related to resources, roles and responsibilities, incentives, development of competences and skills, scope (internal and external) and approaches to integrate decisions and actions in the context of the supply chain.

Articles that address the SCRM process usually focus on the process steps, whereas this study investigated dimensions that transcend these steps but whose discussion in the literature is still fragmented. It also analysed a reference sector for the topic from a broader perspective than others available in the literature (supply chain risks, mitigation strategies and characteristics of the SCRM process). Supply chain members with relationships with each other were investigated, a desirable approach for SCRM but still under-explored. The study also answers calls for industry-specific studies and research on emerging countries.

This study aims to extend the cognitive appraisal theory by developing and validating a conceptual framework to illustrate how travelers' behavioral intention is generated via a multi-stage evaluation of health-related variables.

SEM and moderator analysis were conducted to examine the theoretical framework (post-intervention event travel intention) and to investigate how the appraisal process differs across travelers with various attitudes toward vaccination.

This study found that cruise travel intention was positively influenced by the perceived hedonic value and perceived trustworthiness and negatively influenced by perceived infection risk. Furthermore, whereas perceived hedonic value, perceived trustworthiness and perceived risk of infection were all predicted by crisis management, the dimensions of crisis management operated differently. In addition, vaccination attitudes amplified the unfavorable effect of perceived risk on intention.

Drawing on the CAT, this study developed and validated a conceptual framework to integrate crisis management with customers' behavioral intentions. This study extends existing cruise travel intention theory by demonstrating how post-pandemic travelers' behavioral intention is generated via a multi-stage appraisal-reappraisal process based on the evaluations of infection risks and cruise line crisis management.

Small-scale farmers are highly heterogeneous with regard to their types of farming, levels of technology adoption, degree of commercialization and many other factors. Such heterogeneous types, respectively groups of small-scale farming systems require different forms of government interventions. This paper applies a machine learning approach to analyze the typologies of small-scale farmers in South Africa based on a wide range of objective variables regarding their personal, farm and context characteristics, which support an effective, target-group-specific design and communication of policies.

A cluster analysis is performed based on a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative survey among 212 small-scale farmers, which was conducted in 2019 in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. An unsupervised machine learning approach, namely Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), is applied to the survey data. Subsequently, the farmers' risk perceptions between the different clusters are analyzed and compared.

According to the results of the cluster analysis, the small-scale farmers of the investigated sample can be grouped into four types: subsistence-oriented farmers, semi-subsistence livestock-oriented farmers, semi-subsistence crop-oriented farmers and market-oriented farmers. The subsequently analyzed risk perceptions and attitudes differ considerably between these types.

This is the first typologisation of small-scale farmers based on a comprehensive collection of quantitative and qualitative variables, which can all be considered in the analysis through the application of an unsupervised machine learning approach, namely PAM. Such typologisation is a pre-requisite for the design of more target-group-specific and suitable policy interventions.

Equitable risk allocation is important for the effective management of inevitable risks in International Construction Joint Venture (ICJV) projects. Previous studies have documented risks facing ICJV projects. However, there is a dearth of studies on the risk allocation preferences that take into consideration the opinions of both the local and foreign partners. This study aims to fill this gap by ascertaining the risk allocation preferences of the partners of ICJV projects for effective risk management.

Through a survey, data on risk allocation preferences were collected from both local and foreign partners of ICJV projects using a comprehensive register of 74 risks.

Following analysis, six risks were allocated to the local partner, 11 were allocated to the foreign partner, 51 risks were shared, four were allocated to a third party and two were to be negotiated based on the specific circumstances of the project. Practically, the study’s findings will help ICJV partners in drafting their ICJV contracts to adequately allocate risks and reduce contract negotiation time considerably.

The findings from this study will help partners in drafting their joint venture contract agreement and also reduce the period for contract negotiation. Knowledge of the preferred risk allocation is important in allocating risks in the contract agreement to the relevant partner for effective management.

This study, to the best knowledge of the authors, is one of the early studies to ascertain the risk allocation preferences of ICJV project partners in the Ghanaian construction industry – a departure from previous studies which focused on the identification and evaluation of risks. This study is also different from previous studies by considering the allocation preferences of both partners of the ICJV. The collection of data from both partners of the ICJV helped to consider their perceptions on risk allocation and evaluation, essentially leading to cross-cultural and optimal risk allocation preferences.

The purpose of this study is to examine the nexus between geopolitical risk, female CEOs and firm performance through a cross-country analysis.

The study period ranges from 2014 to 2021, and the dataset uses an unbalanced panel of 4,955 companies across 50 nations comprising both developed and emerging economies. Our study has employed a fixed-effect panel regression model, to examine this issue. This analysis was supplemented with applying a dynamic panel technique, i.e. System generalized method of moments (SGMM), to address any endogeneity problems.

The study reveals that female CEOs positively impact firm performance, while geopolitical risks decrease it. Gender plays a significant role in this relationship, with firms with female executives tending to make conservative financial decisions amidst increased risks. The study also shows that geopolitical threats (GPRT) have a greater impact on female CEOs-firm performance relationship in developed nations.

This study is a new investigation that explores the intertwining relationship between geopolitical risk, female CEOs and firm performance across the countries.

Our aim in this study is to investigate the relative importance of the economic policy uncertainty and of the geopolitical risk on U.S. REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) returns with a special focus on the different real estate sectors.

We use an augmented Fama-French (1993)’s asset pricing model, including economic policy uncertainty indices (EPU), introduced by Baker et al. (2016), and geopolitical risk indices (GPR) recently developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), to price the potential risk factors for U.S. Nareit indices returns. To obtain robust economic results, we correct for the problems of errors-in-variables in linear asset pricing models; we advocate the use of higher moments estimators as instruments in a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework.

Our results report that economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and geopolitical risk (GPR) are priced for the different Nareit sectors for the last three decades. The GPR index stands as a relevant risk factor. The coefficient estimates are low compared to Fama-French risk factors. They are higher for Shopping Centers, Retail and Region Malls and lower for Health Care and Lodging/Resorts. EPU indices are also priced and less statistically significant. Health Care sector, followed by Shopping Centers and Retail are the most policy-sensitive sectors.

In their “2023–2024 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate” “political unrest and global economic health” is ranked 1 issue by the Counselors of Real Estate. Our results report that economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk are priced for the different Nareit sectors. They suggest implications for investors, insurers, bankers, policymakers and other stakeholders. The geopolitical risk index (GPR) stands as a relevant and significant risk factor for REITs returns.

Based on parsimonious robust asset pricing models, the results shed a new light on the relative importance of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the real estate sector, with a special focus on the different U.S. REITs sectors. They suggest possible implications for investors, insurers, bankers, policymakers and other stakeholders in a context marked by higher uncertainty shocks and geopolitical risks.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between corporate environmental responsibility (CER) and risk-taking in Chinese A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2020. It seeks to understand the influence of CER on risk-taking behavior and explore potential moderating factors.

A quantitative approach is used, using data from Chinese A-share listed companies over the specified period. Regression analysis is used to examine the relationship between CER and risk-taking, while considering moderating variables such as performance aspiration, environmental enrichment and contextual factors.

The findings indicate that CER positively influences corporate risk-taking, with significant impacts on information asymmetry and corporate reputation. Moreover, positive performance aspiration strengthens the effect of CER on risk-taking, while negative performance aspiration and environmental enrichment weaken this effect. Cross-sectional analysis shows that the positive association between CER and risk-taking is more prominent for firms located in areas with strict environmental regulation, for nonstate-owned firms, and for firms with higher levels of internal control.

This research contributes to the literature by providing insights into the dynamics between CER and risk-taking in the Chinese market context. It expands existing knowledge by considering the influence of performance aspiration on this relationship, offering practical implications for firms seeking to enhance corporate performance through strategic management of environmental responsibilities.

People with intellectual disabilities are at a significantly higher risk than the general population for experiencing a wide range of adverse and potentially traumatic events. This paper aims to explore the incidence of experiences of lifetime trauma across this population in one Forensic Intellectual Disability Service. Risk management recommendations and psychological risk formulations were also examined for their consideration of traumatic experiences.

Risk assessment reports (n = 39) were reviewed for evidence of traumatic experiences and the consideration of trauma in patient risk formulations and risk management treatment recommendations.

Trauma was rated as present or partially present in 84.6% (n = 33) of risk assessment reports reviewed. None of the patients had received a post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis. Recommendations regarding trauma were identified in 39.4% (n = 13) of the risk assessment reports where trauma was rated either “present” or “partially present”.

Findings suggest a need for diagnostic tools to be used to measure trauma symptoms and potential cases of PTSD to best support needs of patients. Trauma-focused interventions should also be considered. Further investigation is needed to clarify the disparity between the consideration of trauma in formulations and treatment recommendations.

This study highlights the different traumatic experiences that forensic patients across three settings have been exposed to during their lifetimes.