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The study's objective is to measure the response of the food prices to the aggregate and disaggregate geopolitical risk events, Russia's geopolitical risks and global energy prices in the context of two European regions, i.e. Eastern and Western Europe covering the monthly data from January 2001 to March 2022.

The authors apply a novel and sophisticated econometric method, the cross-quantilogram (CQ) approach, to analyse the authors’ monthly data properties. This method detects the causal relationship between the variables under the bi-variate modelling approach. More importantly, the CQ procedure divulges the bearish and bullish states of the causal association between the variables under short, medium and long memories.

The authors find that aggregate measures of geopolitical risk reduce food prices in the short term in the Eastern Europe but increases food prices in the Western Europe. Besides, the decomposed measures of geopolitical risk “threats” and “acts” have heterogeneous effects on the food prices. More importantly, Russia's geopolitical risk events and global energy prices enhance the food inflation under long memory.

The authors provide diverse policy implications for Eastern and Western Europe based on the authors’ findings. First, the European policymakers should take concrete and joint policy measures to tackle the detrimental effects of geopolitical risks to bring stability to the food markets. Second, this region should emphasize utilizing their unused agricultural lands to grow more crops to avoid external dependence on food. Third, the European Union and its partners should begin global initiatives to help smallholder farmers because of their contribution to the resilience of disadvantaged, predominantly rural communities. Fourth, geopolitically affected European countries like Ukraine should deal with a crippled supply chain to safeguard their production infrastructure. Fifth, fuel (oil) scarcity in the European region due to the Russia-Ukraine war should be mitigated by searching for alternative sources (countries) for smooth food transportation for trade. Finally, as Europe and its Allies impose new sanctions in response to the Russia-Ukraine war, it can have immediate and long-run disastrous consequences on the European and the global total food systems. In this case, all European blocks mandate cultivating stratagems to safeguard food security and evade a long-run cataclysm with multitudinous geopolitical magnitudes for European countries and the rest of the world.

This is the maiden study that considers the aggregated and disaggregated measures of the geopolitical risk events, Russia's geopolitical risks and global energy prices and delves into these dynamics' effects on food prices. Notably, linking the context of the Russia-Ukraine war is a significant value addition to the existing piece of food literature.

This paper aims to study the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on corporate cost of debt and the moderating role of information asymmetry between creditors and borrowing firms.

This study uses 5,223 firm-quarter observations on German-listed firms spanning 2010:Q1–2021:Q4. This study regresses the cost of debt financing on the geopolitical risk, accounting quality and other control variables. Information asymmetry is measured using the performance-matched Jones-model discretionary accrual and the stock bid-ask spread. It uses interaction terms to check if information asymmetry moderates the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debts and control for the moderating role of business risk. For the sake of robustness check, it uses long-term cost of debt and bond spread as alternative dependent variables. In addition, this study executes instrumental variables regression and propension score matching to control for potential endogeneity problems.

Estimation results show that geopolitical uncertainty exerts a positive impact on the cost of debt. This impact is found to be more important on the cost of long-term debts. Information asymmetry is found to exacerbate the positive impact of geopolitical risk on the cost of debt. These results are robust to the change of the dependent variable and to the mitigation of potential endogeneity. At high levels of information asymmetry, this impact is more important for firms belonging to “Transportation”, “Automobiles and auto parts”, “Chemicals”, “Industrial and commercial services”, “Software and IT services” and “Industrial goods” business sectors.

Geopolitical uncertainty should be seriously considered when setting strategies for corporate financial management in Germany and similar economies that are directly exposed to geopolitical risks. Corporate managers should design a comprehensive set of corporate policies to improve their transparency and accountability during increasing uncertainty. Policymakers are required to implement innovative monetary and fiscal policies that take into consideration the heterogeneous impact of geopolitical uncertainty and information transparency in order to contain their incidence on German business sectors.

Despite its relevance to corporate financing conditions, little is known about the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt financing. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is still no empirical evidence on how information asymmetry between creditors and borrowing firms shapes the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt. This paper tries to fill this gap by interacting two measures of information asymmetry with geopolitical uncertainty. In contrast with previous studies, this study shows that the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt is non-linear and heterogeneous. The results show that the impact of geopolitical uncertainty does not exert the same impact on the cost of debt instruments with different maturities. This impact is found to be heterogeneous across business sectors and to depend on the level of information asymmetry.

This paper aims to explore the spillover impacts that domestic or global aspects of geopolitical risk generate on uncertainty. The latter is derived from a spectrum of different sources in the USA (economic policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, national security, government spending, taxation) from 1985 up to November 2022.

Vector autoregressive schemes are used to detect causality and reverse causality between each aspect of geopolitical risk and each source of US uncertainty.

Notably, national security generates higher geopolitical risk by almost 8% in the first month but decreases GPR by 2% in the third month after the shock. USA is found to constitute a cornerstone as regards global peace and that the overall economic or monetary conditions or war status in the USA are remarkably more influential toward domestic and global geopolitical uncertainty than separate strands of fiscal policymaking. Reverse causality displays sizably weaker effects overall.

This study sheds light on the determinants of geopolitical risk and domestic instability by an international perspective and provides a compass for better decision-making for fiscal and monetary policymakers and market participants.

Geopolitical risks associated with the return of great power politics and growing nationalism have generated new challenges for foreign investors across industries. Oil and gas companies are well acquainted with such risks and have developed strategies to manage them. This paper reviews five of these strategies: divorcing ownership control from operating control in designing collaborative ventures; proactively managing stakeholder relationships; ensuring transparency and communication; diversifying risks while proactively positioning for emerging opportunities; and deliberately planning for exit should such an eventuality arise. Firms outside of oil and gas can draw on these strategies as they navigate the emerging geopolitical context.

This paper reviews five strategies that oil and gas companies can use to manage geopolitical risk: divorcing ownership control from operating control in designing collaborative ventures; proactively managing stakeholder relationships; ensuring transparency and communication; diversifying risks while proactively positioning for emerging opportunities; and deliberately planning for exit should such an eventuality arise.

This study identifies several strategies that oil and gas companies have used to manage geopolitical risks. These tools will be increasingly important in the shifting global political landscape.

Drawing on the experiences of oil and gas companies, this study has identified several strategies that companies can use to shield themselves from the risks that are currently emanating from geopolitics. While these best practices originate in the experiences of oil and gas firms, the ability to deftly manage geopolitical risks is becoming an important prerequisite for companies across industries.

The purpose of this paper is to examine how changes in the global geopolitical climate have created new and more acute reputation risks for multinational corporations.

This viewpoint examines recent shifts in the global geopolitical claims covered in international media and analyzes variety of instances in which these shifts have created new and more intense reputation risks. From this analysis, the authors derive insights into how companies can prepare for and manage their operations to mitigate potential reputation risks.

The author finds that the increases in reputation risk created by shifting global geopolitical structures expose weaknesses in the infrastructure and skill sets by which companies manage their corporate reputation and makes recommendations about overcoming these weaknesses.

The geopolitical issues analyzed and the reputation risks exposed are selective; therefore, this is not a comprehensive review of all the potential risks.

Companies can do a great deal to protect themselves from new reputation risks created by the geopolitical shifts discussed by setting up a new infrastructure for managing and reporting on these risks and hiring communications professionals with the appropriate capabilities for analyzing and managing the risks.

If these new risks are well managed, the potential for significant business disruption and the safety and security of corporate employees could be significantly reduced.

To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first discussion of geopolitical shifts and corporate reputation.

Geopolitical risks (GPR) and increase in equity market volatility due to health pandemics have great implications on assets prices around the world. Many empirical studies have focused on the effects of these risks on different financial assets. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to this related literature by examining the dynamic effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–induced equity market volatility on regional and global house price indexes.

This paper explores the asymmetric effects of infectious diseases and GPRs on house prices across different market conditions using the quantile regression approach. This technique enables us to examine the nonlinear asymmetric effects of GPRs and infectious diseases on both global and regional house price indexes using daily data from January 1, 2011, to June 3, 2022. It focuses on both the effects of a composite measure of GPR as well as the disaggregated effects of threats and acts (war) on the real estate markets under different market conditions.

The main findings of this study demonstrates that the effects of geopolitical and infectious diseases–related risks vary differently across regional real estate markets and the nature of the GPR. In particular, the effects of geopolitical threats are stronger than those of geopolitical acts, especially for the European, Asia-Pacific and North American regions during bullish market periods. Except for the effects of geopolitical threats during real estate market downturns, the African real estate market appears to be insulated from the effects of GPRs across all market conditions. Also, the authors show that infectious diseases increase losses in real estate investments when the market condition is bearish for all markets and could extend toward the normal market period for the North American, Asia-Pacific and European markets. However, across all the market conditions, the effects of the composite index of GPRs are not significant for the Asia-Pacific and European regional markets. Results are mixed for the remaining markets, especially for the global market. Whereas during bearish market periods, the effect is positive, it becomes negative when the market condition become normal and insignificant when it becomes bullish. For the North American and African regional markets, the effect is positive under the bearish market state.

Increase in equity market volatility due to infectious diseases as well as conflicts and tensions among major powers, including potential risks of financial instability, all lead to significant increase in shocks to financial markets. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the asymmetric and comparative effects of GPRs and infectious diseases–related equity market volatility on real estate investments across different regions and market conditions. Because of the complexity of these risks and policy shifts, and the characteristics and heterogeneity of different regional financial markets, the impacts of shock from these risks are intuitively diverse, with practical implications for portfolio management.

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.

The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.

This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.

One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.

The findings would help in designing useful and relevant hedging strategies against geopolitical risks (GPRs), which are rampant in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region.

This study focuses on the regional and global costs of GPRs for businesses in the Gulf region.

The results of the analysis show that the time-varying conditional correlation between the stock returns of the GCC countries and the Saudi Arabian geopolitical risk is consistently negative, suggesting that the Saudi Arabian geopolitical risk hurts the GCC stock markets, thus underscoring the importance of studying regional GPRs.

The contribution of this paper is twofold: First, it uses a newly geopolitical risk index that includes recent geopolitical events not included in the Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) index. In addition to war threats and acts, terrorist threats and acts and nuclear threats, the authors consider global trade tensions (GTTs), Saudi Arabia's geopolitical risk and OPEC news mainly related to OPEC oil production levels. Second, it assesses whether Saudi Arabia, which is the largest economy in the region and the main global oil exporter, is really a risk exporter to the rest of the GCC countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine led to a sustained downturn in tourist arrivals (TA) in Russia. This paper aims to explore the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) and other indices on TA over 1995–2023.

We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze the effects, capturing both the positive and negative shocks of these variables on TA.

Our research demonstrates that the NARDL model is more effective in elucidating the complex dynamics between macroeconomic factors and TA. Both an increase and a decrease in GPR lead to an increase in TA. A 1% negative shock in GPR leads to an increase in TA by 1.68%, whereas a 1% positive shock in GPR also leads to an increase in TA by 0.5%. In other words, despite the increase in GPR, the number of tourists coming to Russia increases by 0.5% for every 1% increase in that risk. Several explanations could account for this phenomenon: (1) risk-tolerant tourists: some tourists might be less sensitive to GPR or they might find the associated risks acceptable; (2) economic incentives: increased risk might lead to a depreciation in the local currency and lower costs, making travel to Russia more affordable for international tourists; (3) niche tourism: some tourists might be attracted to destinations experiencing turmoil, either for the thrill or to gain firsthand experience of the situation; (4) lagged effects: there might be a time lag between the increase in risk and the actual impact on tourist behavior, meaning the effects might be observed differently over a longer period.

Our study, employing the NARDL model and utilizing a dataset spanning from 1995 to 2023, investigates the impact of GPR, gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on TA in Russia. This research is unique because the dataset was compiled by the authors. The results show a complex relationship between GPR and TA, indicating that factors influencing TA can be multifaceted and not always intuitive.