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This paper aims to assess the impact of different drivers of country risk, including business environment, corruption, economic, environmental, financial, health and safety and political risks, on the country-level logistics performance.

This study utilizes three datasets published by reputed international organizations, including the World Bank Group, AM Best and Global Risk Profile, to explore interactions among country risk drivers and the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) in a network setting. The LPI, published by the World Bank Group, is a composite measure of the country-level logistics performance. Using the three datasets, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model is developed to investigate the relative importance of country risk drivers that influence logistics performance.

The results indicate a moderate to a strong correlation among individual risks and between individual risks and the LPI score. The financial risk significantly varies relative to the extreme states of the LPI score, whereas corruption risk and political risk are the most critical factors influencing the LPI score relative to their resilience and vulnerability potential, respectively.

This study has made two unique contributions to the literature on logistics performance assessment. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to establish associations between country risk drivers and country-level logistics performance in a probabilistic network setting. Second, a new BBN-based process has been proposed for logistics performance assessment and operationalized to help researchers and practitioners establish the relative importance of risk drivers influencing logistics performance. The key feature of the proposed process is adapting the BBN methodology to logistics performance assessment through the lens of risk analysis.

Scoring is a widely used, long-established, and universally applicable method of measuring risks, especially those that are difficult to quantify. Unfortunately, the scoring method is often misused in real estate practice and underestimated in academia. The purpose of this paper is to supplement the literature with general rules under which scoring systems should be designed and validated, so that they can become reliable risk instruments.

The paper combines the rules, or axioms, for coherent risk measures known from the literature with those for scoring instruments. The result is a system of rules that a risk scoring system should fulfil. The approach is theoretical, based on a literature survey and reasoning.

At first, the paper clarifies that a risk score should express the variation of a property’s yield and not of its quality, as it is often done in practice. Then the axioms for a coherent risk scoring are derived, e.g. the independence of the risk factors. Finally, the paper proposes procedures for valid and reliable risk scoring systems, e.g. the out-of-time validation.

Although it is a theoretical work, the paper also focuses on practical applicability. The findings are illustrated with examples of scoring systems.

Rules for risk measures and for scoring systems have been established long ago, but the combination is a first. In this way, the paper contributes to real estate risk research and risk management practice.

This paper investigates the extent to which country risk ratings influence the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). Using International Monetary Fund (IMF) data from over 100 countries and Euromoney’s country risk ratings over a ten‐year period, this study finds that country risk ratings have a significant influence on FDI. This effect is stronger for US FDI. We also analyze the relative importance of the individual components of the country risk index.

To construct a risk score using both clinical and intra-oral variables and to determine a risk score to screen individuals according to their risk of hyperglycemia.

A cross-sectional study was carried out among 690 Thai dental patients who visited the Special Clinic, Faculty of Dentistry, Mahidol University and a mobile dental unit of His Majesty the King of Thailandss Dental Service Unit. Participants aged ≥25 years without a previous history of type 2 diabetes mellitus were included in the study. Participants diagnosed with severe anemia and polycythemia were excluded. Questionnaires were used to collect demographic data. Point-of-care HbA1c, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure and periodontal status were analyzed.

A total of 690 participants were included in the study. A risk scoring system including five variables was developed. It exhibited fair discrimination (area under the curve = 0.72, 95%CI 0.68–0.71). The risk score value of 9 was used as the cut-off point for increased risk of abnormal HbA1c. Subjects that had a total risk score of 9 or more had a high probability of having abnormal HbA1c and were identified for referral to physicians for further investigation and diagnosis.

A risk score to predict hyperglycemia using a dental parameter was developed for convenient evaluation in dental clinics.

Healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are a major cause of concern because of the high levels of associated morbidity, mortality, and cost. In addition, children and intensive care unit (ICU) patients are more vulnerable to these infections due to low levels of immunity. Various medical interventions and statistical process control techniques have been suggested to counter the spread of these infections and aid early detection of an infection outbreak. Methods such as hand hygiene help in the prevention of HAIs and are well-documented in the literature. This chapter demonstrates the utilization of a systems methodology to model and validate factors that contribute to the risk of HAIs in a pediatric ICU. It proposes an approach that has three unique aspects: it studies the problem of HAIs as a whole by focusing on several HAIs instead of a single type, it projects the effects of interventions onto the general patient population using the system-level model, and it studies both medical and behavioral interventions and compares their effectiveness. This methodology uses a systems modeling framework that includes simulation, risk analysis, and statistical techniques for studying interventions to reduce the transmission likelihood of HAIs.

Failure to rescue events, or events involving preventable deaths from complications, are a significant contributor to inpatient mortality. While many interventions have been designed and implemented over several decades, this patient safety issue remains at the forefront of concern for most hospitals. In the first part of this study, the development and implementation of one type of highly studied and widely adopted rescue intervention, algorithm-based patient assessment tools, is examined. The analysis summarizes how a lack of systems-oriented approaches in the design and implementation of these tools has resulted in suboptimal understanding of patient risk of mortality and complications and the early recognition of patient deterioration. The gaps identified impact several critical aspects of excellent patient care, including information-sharing across care settings, support for the development of shared mental models within care teams, and access to timely and accurate patient information.

This chapter describes the use of several system-oriented design and implementation activities to establish design objectives, model clinical processes and workflows, and create an extensible information system model to maximize the benefits of patient state and risk assessment tools in the inpatient setting. A prototype based on the product of the design activities is discussed along with system-level considerations for implementation. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness and impact of applying systems design principles and practices to real-world clinical applications.

This chapter shows how to identify the characteristics of borrowers that are part of a credit scoring model. The credit risk scoring model is an important tool for evaluating credit risk associated with customer characteristics that affect defaults. This research was conducted at a financial institution, a subsidiary of a commercial bank in Indonesia, to answer the challenge of determining the feasibility of providing financing quickly and accurately. This model uses a logistic regression method based on customer data with indicators of demographic characteristics, assets, occupations, and financing payments. This study identifies nine variables that meet the goodness of fit criteria, which consist of WOE, IV, and p-value. The nine variables can be used as predictors of default probability: type of work, work experience, net finance value, tenor, car brand, asset price, percentage of down payment (DP), interest, and income. The results of the study form a risk assessment model to identify variables that have a significant effect on the probability of default.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are highly prevalent in people with developmental disorders who engage in offending behaviour. Many violence-based risk assessment tools include items pertaining to ACEs, and may inflate risk scores in trauma-exposed groups. This paper aims to explore the relationships between ACEs, risk assessment scores, incidents of risk and restrictive practices, in adolescents with developmental disorders in a forensic inpatient setting.

Secondary analysis was conducted on clinical data for 34 adolescents detained to a developmental disorder service. Data were extracted for Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) risk scores and risk behaviours and restrictive practices, as measures of observed risk.

Participants exposed to more ACEs had higher SAVRY risk scores (p < 0.001, two-tailed), with elevations specifically on the historical subscale (p < 0.001, two-tailed). Neither ACEs nor risk scores were associated with the frequency of risk behaviours. Nevertheless, participants exposed to four or more ACEs were secluded more frequently (p = 0.015, two-tailed), indicating a potential association between trauma and risk severity. Those with more complex developmental disorders experienced fewer ACEs (p = 0.02, two-tailed) and engaged in self-harm behaviours less frequently (p = 0.04, two-tailed).

The inclusion of ACEs in risk assessment tools may lead to the inadvertent stigmatization of trauma-exposed individuals. Further investigation is necessary to offer clarity on the impact of early adversity on risk assessment accuracy and levels of institutional risk, and the role of developmental disorders in this relationship.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to explore the relative associations between ACEs, risk assessment scores and observed institutional risk and does so in a highly marginalized population.

There has been increased interest in application of knowledge management (KM) in managerial issues as a way of demonstrating the field's value. There has also been an increasing focus on risk management (RM) in response to growing organisational awareness of corporate and social responsibilities. This paper seeks to contribute to the emergence of a new field of research – referred to as knowledge risk management (KRM), which applies KM tools and techniques to the management of organisational risk.

The approach takes the form of building on an empirical study of the Australian Department of Defence using case study methods.

The paper examines how conventional approaches to risk management based on decision tree methods are ineffective, and proposes and tests an alternative KRM model.

A limitation is that the paper is based on a single case study.

The model provides managers with a way to differentiate amongst risks and prioritise for action. Its main value is to reduce the cognitive bias inherent in traditional decision methods for risk assessment. The KRM model improves the accuracy of risk assessment by reducing subjectivity caused by cognitive bias.

Customers of Islamic banking industry continue to be skeptical on Sharīʿah compliance of Islamic banks despite receiving fatwa from the competent authorities. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the Sharīʿah risk taken by Islamic banks, so that customers are better informed on the level of Sharīʿah compliance that will help in removing the persistent level of skepticism toward Sharīʿah compliance.

This research has used the scorecard based modeling approach to build the Sharīʿah risk rating model, which consists of 14 factors that capture Sharīʿah risk and are grouped in 5 major areas revolving around regulatory support, quality of Sharīʿah supervision, business structure, product mix and treatment of capital adequacy ratio. The score calculated by applying the model is grouped into 4 tiers reflecting the level Sharīʿah compliance at bank as non-compliant, weak compliance, satisfactory compliance and high level of Sharīʿah compliance. Three case studies were conducted by applying the model to Islamic banks from Malaysia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The final Sharīʿah risk scores calculated by the model clearly differentiate the 3 banks on basis of their Sharīʿah risk. The underlying scores also highlighted the areas where banks need to improve to reduce their Sharīʿah risk.

This model can be applied by customers of Islamic banks who are interested in understanding Sharīʿah-related aspects of Islamic banking industry. This model can be applied on standalone basis or as an extension to the conventional counter party risk rating models. This model can benefit management of Islamic banks toward allocation of capital against Sharīʿah risk under Basel III, and regulators can apply the model to measure industry wide risk of Sharīʿah non-compliance.