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This study examines the importance of income income-shifting arrangements of US multinational corporations (MNCs) on future stock price crash risk.

This study employs a sample of 7,641 corporation-year observations over the 2005–2017 period and uses ordinary least squares regression analysis.

The authors find that the income-shifting arrangements of MNCs are positively and significantly associated with stock price crash risk after controlling for corporate tax avoidance and other known determinants of stock price crash risk in the regression model. This result is robust to alternative measures of stock price crash risk and income-shifting, and several endogeneity tests. The authors also observe that income-shifting arrangements increase stock price crash risk both directly and indirectly through the information opacity channel. Finally, in cross-sectional analyses, the authors find that the positive association between income-shifting and stock price crash risk is more pronounced for MNCs that use tax haven subsidiaries and have weak corporate governance mechanisms.

The authors provide new empirical evidence that MNCs will likely face significant capital market consequences regarding their income-shifting arrangements.

After completion of the case study, the students will be able to understand the different risks associated with a business, focusing on price risk and the importance of price risk management in business; understand and evaluate the products available for hedging price risk through exchange-traded derivatives in the Indian scenario; and understand and evaluate the different strategies for price risk management through exchange-traded derivatives in the Indian scenario.

The case study pertains to a small business, M/s Sethi Jewellers. The enterprise is being run by Shri Charan Jeet Sethi and his son Tejinder Sethi. The business is located in Jain Bazar, Jammu, UT, in Northern India. The business was started in 1972 by Charan Jeet’s father. They deal in a wide range of jewelry products and are well-established jewelers known for selling quality ornaments. Tejinder (MBA in marketing) was instrumental in revamping his business recently. Under his leadership, the business has experienced rapid transformation. The business has grown from a one-room shop fully managed by Tejinder’s grandfather to a multistory showroom with several artisans, sales staff and security persons. Through his e-store, Tejinder has a bulk order from a client where the client requires him to accept the order with a small token at the current price and deliver the final product three months from now. Tejinder is in a dilemma about accepting or rejecting the large order. Second, if he accepts, should he buy the entire gold now or wait to buy it later at a lower price? He is also considering hedging the price risk through exchange-traded derivatives. However, he is not entirely sure, as he has a few apprehensions regarding the same, and he is also not fully aware of the process and the instruments he has to use for hedging the price risk on the exchange.

The case study is aimed to cater to undergraduate, postgraduate and MBA students in the field of finance. This case study can be used for students interested in commodity derivatives, risk management and market microstructure.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 1: Accounting and finance.

Large-scale farm management in China has developed rapidly in recent years. Large-scale farmers face substantial operating risks, requiring extensive price risk management. However, the agricultural insurance and futures markets in China are incomplete. This study aims to analyze the price-risk-management behaviors of large-scale farmers under incomplete market conditions, with a focus on the interconnections between large scale farmers' subjective preferences (risk preferences, time preferences), liquidity constraints and their price risk management.

The authors construct an analysis framework to reveal the impact of large-scale farmers' risk preferences, time preferences and liquidity conditions on their price-risk-management behaviors under incomplete market conditions. Using data from field surveys and subjective preference experiments involving 409 large-scale grain farmers in China, an empirical analysis was conducted using the bivariate probit model.

The results show that risk-averse farmers will use risk transfer (such as contract farming) and risk diversification (such as multi-period sales) to avoid price risk. However, farmers subject to liquidity constraints and strong time preferences will not choose risk diversification, and the interaction between time preferences and liquidity constraints will strengthen this decision. The larger the farm-management scale, the greater the impact.

The authors focus on rapidly developed large-scale farm management in China. Appropriate price risk management is required by large-scale farmers due to their substantial operating risks. Considering the incomplete conditions of agricultural insurance and futures markets, the results of this study will help identify behavioral characteristics of large-scale farmers and optimize their price-risk-management strategies, further stabilizing large-scale farm management.

Throughout the 21st century, US households have experienced unprecedented levels of leverage. This dynamic has been exacerbated by income shortfalls during the COVID-19 crisis. Leveraging and deleveraging decisions affect household consumption. This study investigates the effect of the dynamics of household leverage and consumption on the stock market.

The authors explore the relation between household leverage and consumption in the context of the consumption capital asset pricing model (CCAPM). The authors test the model's implication that leverage has a negative risk premium by transforming the asset pricing restriction into an unconditional linear factor model and estimate the model using the general method of moments procedure. The authors run time-series regressions to estimate individual stocks' exposures to leverage, and cross-sectional regressions to investigate the leverage risk premium.

The authors show that shocks to household debt have strong and lasting effects on consumption growth. The authors extend the CCAPM to accommodate this effect and find, using various test assets, a negative risk premium associated with household deleveraging. Looking at individual stocks the authors show that the deleveraging risk premium is not explained by well-known risk factors.

This paper contributes to the literature on the role of leverage in economics and finance by establishing a relation between household leverage and spending decisions. The authors provide novel evidence that households' leveraging and deleveraging decisions can be a fundamental and influential force in determining asset prices. Further, this paper argues that household leverage might explain the small, persistent, and predictable component in consumption growth hypothesised in the long-run risk asset pricing literature.

This study aims to explore the relationship between chief executive officer (CEO) power and stock price crash risk in India. Furthermore, it seeks to analyse how insider trades may moderate the impact of CEO power on stock price crash risk.

A study of 236 companies from the S&P BSE 500 Index (2014–2023) have been analysed through pooled ordinary least square (OLS) regression in the baseline analysis. To enhance the results' reliability, robustness checks include alternative methodologies, such as panel data regression with fixed-effects, binary logistic regression and Bayesian regression. Additional control variables and alternative crash risk measure have also been utilised. To address potential endogeneity, instrumental variable techniques such as two-stage least squares (IV-2SLS) and difference-in-difference (DiD) methodologies are utilised.

Stakeholder theory is supported by results revealing that CEO power proxies like CEO duality, status and directorship reduce one-year ahead stock price crash risk and vice versa. Insider trades are found to moderate the link between select dimensions of CEO power and stock price crash risk. These findings persist after addressing potential endogeneity concerns, and the results remain consistent across alternative methodologies and variable inclusions.

This study significantly advances research on stock price crash risk, especially in emerging economies like India. The implications of these findings are crucial for investors aiming to mitigate crash risk, for corporations seeking enhanced governance measures and for policymakers considering the economic and welfare consequences associated with this phenomenon.

Global warming exacerbates sea level rise and extreme weather events that cause severe flooding, resulting in lost productivity and property damage. To reduce the impact of flooding, residents are avoiding purchasing homes in high-risk areas. There are numerous studies on the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in developed countries, but few in developing countries. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the relationship between flood hazards and housing prices in Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand.

This study uses spatial-lag, spatial error and spatial autoregressive lag and error (SARAR) models to analyze the effect of flood risk on property prices. The main analysis examines the degree of flood risk and housing rental prices from our survey of 380 residences. To test the robustness of the results, the authors examine a different data set of the same samples by using the official property valuation from the Ministry of Finance and the flood risk estimated by the Southern Natural Disaster Research Center.

The SARAR model was chosen for this study because of the occurrence of spatial dependence in both dependent variable and the error term. The authors find that flood risk has a negative impact on property prices in Hat Yai, which is consistent with both models.

This study is one of the first to use spatial econometrics to analyze the impact of flood risk on property prices in Thailand. The results of this study are valuable to policymakers for benefit assessment in cost–benefit analysis of flood risk avoidance or reduction strategies and to the insurance market for pricing flood risk insurance.

Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) are crucial to the procurement of global infrastructure projects. Moreover, a price mode based on a cluster of core concessionary items is key to the delivery of value-for-money and successful project outcomes. However, existing research has yet to fully identify PPP concessionary items, nor yet described the range of practical price modes. This study provides taxonomy of core concessionary items impacting PPP projects, systematically classifies price modes, and assesses the applicability and risk impacts of those price modes on PPP projects.

This study adopts a comparative case study method in analyzing core concessionary items and alternative price modes. China is taken as the context, as it is one of the world’s largest PPP markets. In ensuring research validity and reliability, diverse data sources are utilized, with a graphic content analysis tool developed to capture the structure of price modes.

Eight PPP price modes are identified. These are: (1) UP (Unit Price) mode, (2) ALS (Annual Lump Sum) mode, (3) IRR (Internal Rate of Return) mode, (4) RP (Return for Investing Capital (RIC) - Profit Rate of O&M (PROM)) mode, (5) RFP (RIC - Financing Interest Rate (FR) - PROM) mode, (6) RFPL (RIC - FR - PROM - Lower Limit of User Charge (LLoUC)) mode, (7) RFL (RIC - FR - Lump Sum/Fixed Unit Price O&M Contract (LSOM/FUP)) mode, and (8) RFLL (RIC - FR - LSOM/FUP - LLoUC) mode. Other main findings are as follows: (1) Five risk allocation configurations can be achieved via these price modes. Yet while different price modes enable the allocation of specific risks, these do not always align with contracting parties’ original intentions. (2) IRR and RP modes may be less applicable in general because of their vulnerability in allocating critical risks and capacity for spurring opportunistic behavior.

By depicting the paths by which concessionary items in price modes affect cash flow, a systematic analysis of price modes was conducted exposing structural characteristics, along with risk allocation choice implications. The study is unique in: (1) Providing a systematic classification of PPP price modes used in PPP projects, (2) Presenting a comprehensive identification and streamlining of concessionary items in PPP practice, and (3) Analyzing the risk effects of different price modes. Together, these outcomes offer a hitherto unavailable perspective on PPP project risk management. The value of the study lies in the following: (1) Existing studies employ diverse concessionary items, but their applicability varies. This study offers an overarching framework facilitating decision-making in selecting appropriate PPP price modes and in determining concessionary items. (2) This study adds to the understanding of PPP price modes in significant ways that will aid local governments and potential sponsors in crafting and administrating more workable contract designs.

This paper examines the impact of sharia-compliant debt financing on stock price crash risk. Unlike those previous studies that took Sukuk or sharia-compliant firms, this study tests the impact of the proportion reported sharia-compliant debt financing in the balance sheet on the risk of price crash of a firm.

Using the data from 2,752 firm-year observations of 344 Malaysian non-financial listed companies from 2012 to 2019, this article used a robust panel data estimation technique for statistical inferences. This study also employs panel GMM and quantile least squares as the robustness check.

This study established a negative relationship between sharia-compliant debt financing and stock price crash risk. The robustness checks with different estimation techniques confirm the results. It implies that firms with a more significant proportion of Sharia-compliant financing tend to have lower future stock price crash risk.

Consistent with the Islamic finance literature, the present study contributes to the existing literature on Islamic capital markets from the perspective of stock price crash risk because it is vital for risk management and investment decision-making as a measure of tail risk for stocks. The findings of this research will assist investors in developing portfolio strategies that incorporate firms with higher levels of sharia-compliant debt financing in their balance sheets. Additionally, the results of this study suggest that policymakers and regulatory bodies should consider revising their monitoring approaches for publicly listed firms.

This study is interesting and unique, as it is a pioneer in testing the impact of sharia-compliant debt financing on reducing stock price crash risk.