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Article
Publication date: 25 September 2023

Xiao Yao, Dongxiao Wu, Zhiyong Li and Haoxiang Xu

Since stock return and volatility matters to investors, this study proposes to incorporate the textual sentiment of annual reports in stock price crash risk prediction.

Abstract

Purpose

Since stock return and volatility matters to investors, this study proposes to incorporate the textual sentiment of annual reports in stock price crash risk prediction.

Design/methodology/approach

Specific sentences gathered from management discussions and their subsequent analyses are tokenized and transformed into numeric vectors using textual mining techniques, and then the Naïve Bayes method is applied to score the sentiment, which is used as an input variable for crash risk prediction. The results are compared between a collection of predictive models, including linear regression (LR) and machine learning techniques.

Findings

The experimental results find that those predictive models that incorporate textual sentiment significantly outperform the baseline models with only accounting and market variables included. These conclusions hold when crash risk is proxied by either the negative skewness of the return distribution or down-to-up volatility (DUVOL).

Research limitations/implications

It should be noted that the authors' study focuses on examining the predictive power of textual sentiment in crash risk prediction, while other dimensions of textual features such as readability and thematic contents are not considered. More analysis is needed to explore the predictive power of textual features from various dimensions, with the most recent sample data included in future studies.

Originality/value

The authors' study provides implications for the information value of textual data in financial analysis and risk management. It suggests that the soft information contained within annual reports may prove informative in crash risk prediction, and the incorporation of textual sentiment provides an incremental improvement in overall predictive performance.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2012

William McCluskey, Peadar Davis, Martin Haran, Michael McCord and David McIlhatton

The aim of this paper is to investigate the comparative performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) and several multiple regression techniques in terms of their predictive…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to investigate the comparative performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) and several multiple regression techniques in terms of their predictive accuracy and capability of being used within the mass appraisal industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology first tested that the data set had neglected non‐linearity which suggested that a non‐linear modelling technique should be applied. Given the capability of ANNs to model non‐linear data, this technique was used along with an OLS regression model (baseline model) and two non‐linear multiple regression techniques. In addition, the models were evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and their capability of use within the mass appraisal environment.

Findings

Previous studies which have compared the predictive performance of an ANN model against multiple regression techniques are inconclusive. Having superior predictive capability is important but equally important is whether the technique can be successfully employed for the mass appraisal of residential property. This research found that a non‐linear regression model had higher predictive accuracy than the ANN. Also the output of the ANN was not sufficiently transparent to provide an unambiguous appraisal model upon which predicted values could be defended against objections.

Research limitations/implications

The research provides an informative view as to the efficacy of ANN methodology within the real estate field. A number of issues have been raised on the applicability of ANN models within the mass appraisal environment.

Practical implications

This work demonstrates that ANNs whilst useful as a predictive tool have a limited practical role for the assessment of residential property values for property tax purposes.

Originality/value

The work has taken forward the debate on the usefulness of ANN techniques within the mass appraisal environment.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2020

Shashidhar Kaparthi and Daniel Bumblauskas

The after-sale service industry is estimated to contribute over 8 percent to the US GDP. For use in this considerably large service management industry, this article provides…

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Abstract

Purpose

The after-sale service industry is estimated to contribute over 8 percent to the US GDP. For use in this considerably large service management industry, this article provides verification in the application of decision tree-based machine learning algorithms for optimal maintenance decision-making. The motivation for this research arose from discussions held with a large agricultural equipment manufacturing company interested in increasing the uptime of their expensive machinery and in helping their dealer network.

Design/methodology/approach

We propose a general strategy for the design of predictive maintenance systems using machine learning techniques. Then, we present a case study where multiple machine learning algorithms are applied to a particular example situation for an illustration of the proposed strategy and evaluation of its performance.

Findings

We found progressive improvements using such machine learning techniques in terms of accuracy in predictions of failure, demonstrating that the proposed strategy is successful.

Research limitations/implications

This approach is scalable to a wide variety of applications to aid in failure prediction. These approaches are generalizable to many systems irrespective of the underlying physics. Even though we focus on decision tree-based machine learning techniques in this study, the general design strategy proposed can be used with all other supervised learning techniques like neural networks, boosting algorithms, support vector machines, and statistical methods.

Practical implications

This approach is applicable to many different types of systems that require maintenance and repair decision-making. A case is provided for a cloud data storage provider. The methods described in the case can be used in any number of systems and industrial applications, making this a very scalable case for industry practitioners. This scalability is possible as the machine learning techniques learn the correspondence between machine conditions and outcome state irrespective of the underlying physics governing the systems.

Social implications

Sustainable systems and operations require allocating and utilizing resources efficiently and effectively. This approach can help asset managers decide how to sustainably allocate resources by increasing uptime and utilization for expensive equipment.

Originality/value

This is a novel application and case study for decision tree-based machine learning that will aid researchers in developing tools and techniques in this area as well as those working in the artificial intelligence and service management space.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 April 2022

D. Divya, Bhasi Marath and M.B. Santosh Kumar

This study aims to bring awareness to the developing of fault detection systems using the data collected from sensor devices/physical devices of various systems for predictive…

1996

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to bring awareness to the developing of fault detection systems using the data collected from sensor devices/physical devices of various systems for predictive maintenance. Opportunities and challenges in developing anomaly detection algorithms for predictive maintenance and unexplored areas in this context are also discussed.

Design/methodology/approach

For conducting a systematic review on the state-of-the-art algorithms in fault detection for predictive maintenance, review papers from the years 2017–2021 available in the Scopus database were selected. A total of 93 papers were chosen. They are classified under electrical and electronics, civil and constructions, automobile, production and mechanical. In addition to this, the paper provides a detailed discussion of various fault-detection algorithms that can be categorised under supervised, semi-supervised, unsupervised learning and traditional statistical method along with an analysis of various forms of anomalies prevalent across different sectors of industry.

Findings

Based on the literature reviewed, seven propositions with a focus on the following areas are presented: need for a uniform framework while scaling the number of sensors; the need for identification of erroneous parameters; why there is a need for new algorithms based on unsupervised and semi-supervised learning; the importance of ensemble learning and data fusion algorithms; the necessity of automatic fault diagnostic systems; concerns about multiple fault detection; and cost-effective fault detection. These propositions shed light on the unsolved issues of predictive maintenance using fault detection algorithms. A novel architecture based on the methodologies and propositions gives more clarity for the reader to further explore in this area.

Originality/value

Papers for this study were selected from the Scopus database for predictive maintenance in the field of fault detection. Review papers published in this area deal only with methods used to detect anomalies, whereas this paper attempts to establish a link between different industrial domains and the methods used in each industry that uses fault detection for predictive maintenance.

Details

Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, vol. 29 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-2511

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2001

Stuart Cooper, David Crowther and Chris Carter

This article considers the role of accounting in organisational decision making. It challenges the rational nature of decisions made in organisations through the use of accounting…

2249

Abstract

This article considers the role of accounting in organisational decision making. It challenges the rational nature of decisions made in organisations through the use of accounting models and the problems of predicting the future through the use of such models. The use of accounting in this manner is evaluated from an epochal postmodern stance. Issues raised by chaos theory and the uncertainty principle are used to demonstrate problems with the predictive ability of accounting models. The authors argue that any consideration of the predictive value of accounting needs to change to incorporate a recognition of the turbulent external environment, if it is to be of use for organisational decision making. Thus it is argued that the role of accounting as a mechanism for knowledge creation regarding the future is fundamentally flawed. We take this as a starting‐point to argue for the real purpose of the use of the predictive techniques of accounting, using its ritualistic role in the context of myth creation to argue for the cultural benefits of the use of such flawed techniques.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 39 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 November 2022

Meryem Uluskan and Merve Gizem Karşı

This study aims to emphasize utilization of Predictive Six Sigma to achieve process improvements based on machine learning (ML) techniques embedded in define, measure, analyze…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to emphasize utilization of Predictive Six Sigma to achieve process improvements based on machine learning (ML) techniques embedded in define, measure, analyze, improve, control (DMAIC). With this aim, this study presents selection and utilization of ML techniques, including multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN), random forests (RF), gradient boosting machines (GBM) and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) in the analyze and improve phases of Six Sigma DMAIC.

Design/methodology/approach

A data set containing 320 observations with nine input and one output variables is used. To achieve the objective which was to decrease the number of fabric defects, five ML techniques were compared in terms of prediction performance and best tools were selected. Next, most important causes of defects were determined via these tools. Finally, parameter optimization was conducted for minimum number of defects.

Findings

Among five ML tools, ANN, GBM and RF are found to be the best predictors. Out of nine potential causes, “machine speed” and “fabric width” are determined as the most important variables by using these tools. Then, optimum values for “machine speed” and “fabric width” for fabric defect minimization are determined both via regression response optimizer and ANN surface optimization. Ultimately, average defect number was decreased from 13/roll to 3/roll, which is a considerable decrease attained through utilization of ML techniques in Six Sigma.

Originality/value

Addressing an important gap in Six Sigma literature, in this study, certain ML techniques (i.e. MLR, ANN, RF, GBM and k-NN) are compared and the ones possessing best performances are used in the analyze and improve phases of Six Sigma DMAIC.

Article
Publication date: 13 May 2021

James Mutuota Wakiru, Liliane Pintelon, Peter Muchiri and Peter Chemweno

The present study empirically compares maintenance practices under asset performance management (APM), employed by firms in developed and developing countries (Belgium and Kenya…

Abstract

Purpose

The present study empirically compares maintenance practices under asset performance management (APM), employed by firms in developed and developing countries (Belgium and Kenya, respectively).

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical observations and theoretical interpretations on maintenance practices under APM are delineated. A comparative cross-sectional survey study is conducted through an online questionnaire with 151 respondents (101 Kenya, 50 Belgium). Descriptive statistics and inferential statistics like independent t-test and phi coefficient were used for analyzing the data.

Findings

In both countries, reduction of maintenance and operational budget, return on assets, asset ageing and compliance aspects were established as critical factors influencing the implementation of asset maintenance and performance management (AMPM). A significant difference in staff competence in managing vibration, ultrasound and others like predictive algorithms was found to exist between the firms of the two countries. The majority of firms across the divide utilize manual and computer-based tools to integrate and analyse various maintenance data sets, while standardization and maintenance knowledge loss were found to adversely affect maintenance data management.

Research limitations/implications

The study findings are based on the limited number of returned responses of the survey questionnaire and focused on only two countries representing developed and developing economies. This study not only provides practitioners with the practical guidelines for benchmarking, but also induces the need to improve the asset maintenance strategies and data application practices for asset performance management.

Practical implications

The paper provides insights to researchers and practitioners in the articulation of imperative effective maintenance strategies, benchmarking and challenges in their implementation, considering the different operational context.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to theory and practice within the field of AMPM where no empirical research comparing developed and developing countries exist.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 39 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 July 2024

Zengkun Liu and Justine Hui

This study aims to introduce an innovative approach to predictive maintenance by integrating time-series sensor data with event logs, leveraging the synergistic potential of deep…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to introduce an innovative approach to predictive maintenance by integrating time-series sensor data with event logs, leveraging the synergistic potential of deep learning models. The primary goal is to enhance the accuracy of equipment failure predictions, thereby minimizing operational downtime.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology uses a dual-model architecture, combining the patch time series transformer (PatchTST) model for analyzing time-series sensor data and bidirectional encoder representations from transformers for processing textual event log data. Two distinct fusion strategies, namely, early and late fusion, are explored to integrate these data sources effectively. The early fusion approach merges data at the initial stages of processing, while late fusion combines model outputs toward the end. This research conducts thorough experiments using real-world data from wind turbines to validate the approach.

Findings

The results demonstrate a significant improvement in fault prediction accuracy, with early fusion strategies outperforming traditional methods by 2.6% to 16.9%. Late fusion strategies, while more stable, underscore the benefit of integrating diverse data types for predictive maintenance. The study provides empirical evidence of the superiority of the fusion-based methodology over singular data source approaches.

Originality/value

This research is distinguished by its novel fusion-based approach to predictive maintenance, marking a departure from conventional single-source data analysis methods. By incorporating both time-series sensor data and textual event logs, the study unveils a comprehensive and effective strategy for fault prediction, paving the way for future advancements in the field.

Details

Sensor Review, vol. 44 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0260-2288

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 April 2019

Abdel Latef M. Anouze and Imad Bou-Hamad

This paper aims to assess the application of seven statistical and data mining techniques to second-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) for bank performance.

7010

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to assess the application of seven statistical and data mining techniques to second-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) for bank performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Different statistical and data mining techniques are used to second-stage DEA for bank performance as a part of an attempt to produce a powerful model for bank performance with effective predictive ability. The projected data mining tools are classification and regression trees (CART), conditional inference trees (CIT), random forest based on CART and CIT, bagging, artificial neural networks and their statistical counterpart, logistic regression.

Findings

The results showed that random forests and bagging outperform other methods in terms of predictive power.

Originality/value

This is the first study to assess the impact of environmental factors on banking performance in Middle East and North Africa countries.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 March 2009

Ranjit Bose

Advanced analytics‐driven data analyses allow enterprises to have a complete or “360 degrees” view of their operations and customers. The insight that they gain from such analyses…

13984

Abstract

Purpose

Advanced analytics‐driven data analyses allow enterprises to have a complete or “360 degrees” view of their operations and customers. The insight that they gain from such analyses is then used to direct, optimize, and automate their decision making to successfully achieve their organizational goals. Data, text, and web mining technologies are some of the key contributors to making advanced analytics possible. This paper aims to investigate these three mining technologies in terms of how they are used and the issues that are related to their effective implementation and management within the broader context of predictive or advanced analytics.

Design/methodology/approach

A range of recently published research literature on business intelligence (BI); predictive analytics; and data, text and web mining is reviewed to explore their current state, issues and challenges learned from their practice.

Findings

The findings are reported in two parts. The first part discusses a framework for BI using the data, text, and web mining technologies for advanced analytics; and the second part identifies and discusses the opportunities and challenges the business managers dealing with these technologies face for gaining competitive advantages for their businesses.

Originality/value

The study findings are intended to assist business managers to effectively understand the issues and emerging technologies behind advanced analytics implementation.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 109 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

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