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Article
Publication date: 3 May 2013

Valeri Kontorovich and Zinaida Lovtchikova

The purpose of this paper is to provide the results of investigation of multi‐moment statistical characteristics of chaos and apply them to improve the accuracy of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide the results of investigation of multi‐moment statistical characteristics of chaos and apply them to improve the accuracy of nonlinear algorithms for chaos filtering for real‐time applications.

Design/methodology/approach

The approach to find multi‐moment statistical properties of chaos‐multi‐moment cumulant (covariance) functions of higher order is a generalization of the previously proposed (by the authors) “degenerated cumulant equations” method. Those multi‐moment cumulants functions are applied in the generalization of the Stratonovich‐Kushner equations (SKE) for the optimum algorithm of nonlinear filtering of chaos as well as for synthesis of the quasi‐optimum algorithms.

Findings

Results are presented to investigate the multi‐moment statistical properties of chaos and formulate the theoretical background for synthesis of multi‐moment optimum and quasi‐optimum algorithms for nonlinear filtering of chaos with the improved accuracy in the presence of additive white noise.

Originality/value

The paper presents new theoretical results of the statistical description of chaos, previously partially reported only from experimental studies. A novel approach for chaos filtering is also presented. The proposed approach is dedicated to further improvement of the filtering accuracy for the case of low (less than one) SNR scenarios and is important for implementation in real‐time processing. As an important practical example, the new modified EKF algorithm is proposed with the rather opportunistic characteristics of the filtering fidelity together with algorithm complexity – practically the same as the “classic” one‐moment EKF algorithm.

Details

COMPEL - The international journal for computation and mathematics in electrical and electronic engineering, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0332-1649

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Article
Publication date: 1 November 2006

Orlando Gomes

The purpose of this paper is to survey literature on macroeconomic nonlinear dynamics.

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2017

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to survey literature on macroeconomic nonlinear dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper identifies five influential types of models where the possible generation of endogenous cycles and chaotic motion arises. First, the frameworks that make use of the one‐hump logistic type equation; second, the models inspired on the growth literature of the 1940s; third, intertemporal utility maximization problems with increasing returns; fourth, models that can be represented as piecewise dynamic maps; and, fifth, bounded rationality – heterogeneous expectations setups.

Findings

The attention will be mainly focused on the theme of business cycles; an interpretation of the deterministic real business cycle model with increasing returns is proposed and a graphical analysis of the underlying system shows that strange attractors are observable for specific sets of parameter values.

Practical implications

The study of endogenous cycles in macroeconomic literature has important implications for policy: if fluctuations are due to deterministic reasons this may imply that by manipulating policy parameters governments may be able to change the qualitative nature of the economy's dynamics.

Originality/value

The paper gives a comprehensive view of nonlinear dynamics in macroeconomics. It shows that various relevant subjects might be addressed in this kind of models, e.g. economic growth, asset pricing, business cycles, consumption decisions, among others.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 33 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 1 August 1992

Gerald Vinten

Chaos theory is about to invade the thinking and vocabulary ofpractising managers and management academics. It will mark the majorbreakthrough in the 1990s, just as…

Abstract

Chaos theory is about to invade the thinking and vocabulary of practising managers and management academics. It will mark the major breakthrough in the 1990s, just as systems theory represented the great step forward three decades ago. Indeed, it may be regarded as a natural extension of systems theory. Provides an explanation of what chaos theory means in the light of some important scientific developments which may now be viewed as superseded. Explores the connection with management thinking through a number of major management writers who display an implicit awareness of chaos. A discussion considers the interrelationship between order and disorder, and the significance for creativity and leadership in organizations. Managers need to thrive on chaos, and to revamp some deeply entrenched attitudes if they are to succeed in the midst of an operating environment that is less stable and predictable.

Details

Management Decision, vol. 30 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2006

Drew Stapleton, Joe B. Hanna and Jonathan R. Ross

The purpose of this article is to expand the base of supply chain knowledge by applying chaos theory principles to selected supply chain functions.

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5435

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to expand the base of supply chain knowledge by applying chaos theory principles to selected supply chain functions.

Design/methodology/approach

Researchers borrow chaos theory from the natural sciences, provide a basic explanation, and then examine how it may be applied to enhance supply chain management techniques.

Findings

Chaos theory principles are used to assist in the examination of forecasting, product design, and inventory management challenges currently facing supply chain practitioners.

Research limitations/implications

Application of chaos theory to various supply chain issues and key functional areas may produce an increase in the level of understanding of supply chain ambiguity and how chaos theory may provide valuable insight into the effective management of supply chain networks.

Practical implications

When applied correctly, chaos theory shows potential to be a tool that can be instrumental in helping explain why unpredictability occurs within nonlinear systems. A better understanding of this phenomenon may help researchers to develop better, more accurate models to assist managers in making better supply chain management decisions, benefiting organizations and customers by simultaneously enhancing cost‐effectiveness and improving customer service levels.

Originality/value

The principles of chaos theory have been introduced as a method that shows early promise as a tool to enhance supply chain effectiveness. Specific applications must now be examined through empirical research.

Details

Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-8546

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Article
Publication date: 24 October 2019

Farman Afzal, Shao Yunfei, Muhammad Sajid and Fahim Afzal

Cost overrun is inherent to project chaos, which is one of the key drivers of project failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore the critical elements of…

Abstract

Purpose

Cost overrun is inherent to project chaos, which is one of the key drivers of project failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore the critical elements of complexity-risk interdependency for cost-chaos in the construction management domain by utilizing a multi-criteria decision model.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 12 complexity and 60 risk attributes are initially identified from the literature and using expert’s judgements. For the development of a structured hierarchy of key complexity and risk drivers, a real-time Delphi process is adopted for recording and evaluating the responses from experts. Afterwards, a pair-wise comparison using analytical network processing is performed to measure complexity-risk interdependencies against cost alternatives.

Findings

The findings of the integrated priority decision index (IPDI) suggest that uncertainties related to contingency and escalation costs are the main sources of cost overrun in project drift, along with the key elements such as “the use of innovative technology,” “multiple contracts,” “low advance payment,” “change in design,” “unclear specifications” and “the lack of experience” appear to be more significant to chaos in complexity-risk interdependency network.

Research limitations/implications

This study did not address the uncertainty and vulnerability exit in the judgment process, therefore, this framework can be extended using fuzzy logic to better evaluate the significance of cost-chaos drivers.

Practical implications

These results may assist the management of cost overrun to avoid chaos in a project. The proposed model can be applied within project risk management practices to make better-informed technical decisions in the early phases of the project life cycle where uncertainty is high.

Originality/value

This research addresses the importance of cost overruns as a source of project chaos in dynamic systems where projects reach the edge of chaos and progress stops. A new IPDI index contributes toward evaluating the severity of complexity and risk and their interdependencies which create cost-chaos in infrastructure transport projects.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 27 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2001

Warren Smith

This article notes the growing attractiveness of concepts “borrowed” from chaos theory in organizational studies. Many of these interpretations display sentiments broadly…

Abstract

This article notes the growing attractiveness of concepts “borrowed” from chaos theory in organizational studies. Many of these interpretations display sentiments broadly congruent with a “postmodern” approach to organization. Indeed chaos theory itself is presented as part of a similar postmodern shift within natural science. However, these sentiments have been subject to stinging criticism by scientists. Here, the deterministic underpinning of chaos theory is used to show that chaos theory is an entirely modernist enterprise. In this case the indeterministic messages taken by organizational theorists are something of a misunderstanding. Consequently, I discuss whether this is enough to threaten the interdisciplinary status of chaos theory, particularly when it is used in a self-consciously ‘metaphorical’ fashion.

Details

International Journal of Organization Theory & Behavior, vol. 4 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1093-4537

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Article
Publication date: 25 February 2014

Young-Long Chen and Chung-Ming Cheng

Wu et al.'s scheme has a security problem that is related to anonymity: attackers can determine by interception the identity of a legal user. This paper aims to propose a…

Abstract

Purpose

Wu et al.'s scheme has a security problem that is related to anonymity: attackers can determine by interception the identity of a legal user. This paper aims to propose a new secure authentication which combines a chaos system with an Arnold cat map. The scheme improves upon that of the Wu et al.'s scheme. The scheme proposed herein provides for full anonymity and improves the security of authentication messages for wireless communications.

Design/methodology/approach

A novel scheme that integrates a chaos sequence is used with an Arnold cat map for authentication messages. Authentication messages are shuffled using an Arnold cat map to improve the security of authentication in wireless communications. An analytic approach based on a chaos sequence with an Arnold cat map is developed to secure authentication. The proposed scheme is presented in this study to overcome the inherent drawbacks of existing designs.

Findings

The integrated scheme involves two steps. First, a chaos map is used to generate a set of chaos sequences that is added to the authentication messages. Second, the authentication messages are shuffled using an Arnold cat map. The main feature of the proposed design is such that the chaos systems are sensitive to the initial values of conditions. Sensitivity will lead to long-term behavior unpredictability to reflect the non-linear dynamic systems. Furthermore, to increase the complexity of the authentication message, the authors also use an Arnold cat map.

Originality/value

The proposed scheme provides functions that include full anonymity properties, protection of the real identity of the user, one-time password properties, timestamp benefits and sufficient complexity of the password. The analysis shows that the proposed scheme exhibits the advantages of the chaos system and is more secure than previous schemes. Notably, the proposed scheme is effective for wireless communications.

Details

Engineering Computations, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-4401

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Article
Publication date: 6 September 2021

Levent Altinay and Hasan Evrim Arici

Drawing on chaos theory as an overarching approach, as well as guidelines from effectuation and transformative learning theories, this study aims to evaluate the changing…

Abstract

Purpose

Drawing on chaos theory as an overarching approach, as well as guidelines from effectuation and transformative learning theories, this study aims to evaluate the changing marketing channels in the hospitality industry in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also aims to develop a conceptual framework that demonstrates the transformation of the marketing structure; in particular, the transformation of hospitality organizations, employees and customers.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the hermeneutic method and conceptually evaluates the existing actors of the services marketing structure. It also discusses how to transform this structure into the new normal in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Findings

The findings of the study demonstrated that COVID-19 has resulted in changing marketing channels in the hospitality industry. These include external, internal, interactive and substitutional marketing channels. In response to these changes, the hospitality industry needs to adopt a more transformative marketing structure that requires the transformation of hospitality companies, employees and customers.

Research limitations/implications

The conceptualized transformation of the services marketing structure could help hospitality practitioners, employees and customers to understand the new normal and acquire new abilities, meanings, awareness and learning accordingly.

Originality/value

This study uses chaos, effectuation and transformative learning theories to reconceptualize the hospitality services marketing structure. The contribution of this paper lies in the conceptual pathways it suggests for transforming hospitality firms, employees and customers and for demonstrating their transformed roles and positions in the wake of the pandemic.

Details

Journal of Services Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0887-6045

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44450-861-4

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 2020

Sam Alfoqahaa and Eleri Jones

Building on the contributions of chaos and complexity theories, this paper aims to conceptualize how the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Nelson…

Abstract

Purpose

Building on the contributions of chaos and complexity theories, this paper aims to conceptualize how the leadership of Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela were able to transform chaos (randomness) into order (integration). More specifically, it aims to identify the qualities by which such leadership worked in the context of conflict and cultural confrontations, which is, leading at the edge of chaos.

Design/methodology/approach

This research follows a qualitative approach in data collection and analysis; it narrates and analyses biographic data as well as literature about these three prominent leaders. Common qualities of these leaders are explored in-depth, discussed and linked.

Findings

Success in leading at the edge of chaos was attributed to the following leadership qualities: vision, non-violence and tolerance. This paper conceptualizes Gandhi, King and Mandela's embodiment of these qualities in transforming difference and disagreement to unity and how they inspired and developed their societies at home and all over the world. This paper concludes with the following results: Dr King, Gandhi and Mandela were visionary leaders; the three leaders had a vision about the future of freedom, equality and peace. More importantly, they were able to hearts and minds, and convey their visions to followers and to society at large. They struggled to achieve their goals non-violently, but knew that violence could destroy society due to unbalanced power structures. In the fight for their people's emancipation/freedom, they avoided ethnic, racial and religious discrimination. The three leaders were politically, culturally and socially tolerant.

Research limitations/implications

By identifying their leadership qualities and analyzing their leadership mechanisms, this paper stresses the necessity of the emergence and preservation of leadership as exhibited by King, Gandhi, Mandela and many other influential leaders. Leaders, committed to enrichment and sustainability of cultural diversity and nurturing of tolerance, can play a role in unifying nations. Practically put, today’s leaders need to rethink their strategies, by taking into consideration what Gandhi, King and Mandela have contributed to leadership in dealing with cultural diversity and conflict. Furthermore, leaders must extend the applicability of such leadership to include the ending of violence in every facet of people's lives, and work publicly to overcome the challenges encountering human kind such as nuclear weapons, war, poverty, racism, global warming, drugs, religious bigotry and violence of any kind. That is, today's leaders need to lead at the edge of chaos due to the ongoing conflicts around the globe.

Originality/value

This paper uniquely conceptualizes leadership qualities by analyzing and comparing literature and biographical data of the above-mentioned leaders. The study also contributes to the existing literature on leadership using an interdisciplinary approach by proving the mechanisms by which leadership transforms chaos into order within the context of cultural diversity and confrontation, where studies are rare. This research contributes to the theory of leaderships at three levels. First, it offers an interdisciplinary theory on leadership qualities by linking these qualities with chaos and complexity theories. Second, unlike the majority of literature which views leadership from a business or public leadership perspective, this research provides a new perspective of leadership for cultural diversity. Third, it highlights the role models of three exemplary leaders for each of whom previous literature is lacking.

Details

International Journal of Public Leadership, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2056-4929

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