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The purpose of this paper is to use prediction markets to forecast an agricultural event: United States Department of Agriculture's number of cattle on feed (COF). Prediction markets are increasingly popular forecast tools due to their flexibility and proven accuracy to forecast a diverse array of events.

During spring 2008, a market was constructed comprised of student traders in which they bought and sold contracts whose value was contingent on the number of COF to be reported on April 18, 2008. During a nine‐week period, students were presented three types of contracts to forecast the number of COF. To estimate forecasts a uniform price sealed bid auction mechanism was used.

The results showed that prediction markets forecasted 11.5 million head on feed, which was about 1.6 percent lower than the actual number of COF (11.684 million). The prediction market also fared slightly worse than analysts' predictions, which on average suggested there would be about 11.795 million head (an over‐estimate of about 1 percent).

The contribution of this study was not to provide conclusive evidence on the efficacy of using prediction markets to forecast COF, but rather to present an empirical example that will spark interest among agricultural economists on the promises and pitfalls of a research method that has been relatively underutilized in the agricultural economics literature.

The selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study.

Based on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees.

The paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and the market maker attribute seem to predict informed traders the best.

Algorithms based on identified attributes can be used to objectify the selection of experts for Delphi studies with potential gains in terms of the amount of information considered.

Prediction markets are techniques to aggregate dispersed public opinions via market mechanisms to predict uncertain future events’ outcome. Many experiments have shown that prediction markets outperform other traditional forecasting methods in terms of accuracy. Logarithmic market scoring rules (LMSR) is one of the most simple and widely used market mechanisms; however, market makers have to confront crucial design decisions including the setting of the parameter “b” or the “liquidity parameter” in the price functions. As the liquidity parameter has significant effects on the market performance, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive basis for the setting of the parameter.

The analyses include the effects of the liquidity parameter on the forecast standard error and the amount of time for the market price to converge to the true value. These experiments use artificial prediction markets, the proposed simulation models that mimic real prediction markets.

The simulation results indicate that prediction market’s forecast standard error decreases as the value of the liquidity parameter increases. Moreover, for any given number of traders in the market, there exists an optimal liquidity parameter value that yields appropriate price adaptability and leads to the fastest price convergence.

Understanding these tradeoffs, the market makers can effectively determine the liquidity parameter value under various objectives on the standard error, the time to convergence and cost.

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market.

This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R-squared.

The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique.

This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility.

This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.

Financial price forecast issues are always a concern of investors. However, the financial applications based on machine learning methods mainly focus on stock market predictions. Few studies have explored credit risk predictions. Understanding credit risk trends can help investors avoid market risks. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prediction model that can effectively predict credit default swaps (CDS).

A novel generative adversarial network (GAN) for CDS prediction is proposed. The authors take three features into account that are highly relevant to the future trends of CDS: historical CDS price, news and financial leverage. The main goal of this model is to improve the existing GAN-based regression model by adding finance and news feature extraction approaches. The proposed model adopts an attentional long short-term memory network and convolution network to process historical CDS data and news information, respectively. In addition to enhancing the effectiveness of the GAN model, the authors also design a data sampling strategy to alleviate the overfitting issue.

The authors conduct an experiment with a real dataset and evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The components and selected features of the model are evaluated for their ability to improve the prediction performance. The experimental results show that the proposed model performs better than other machine learning algorithms and traditional regression GAN.

There are very few studies on prediction models for CDS. With the proposed novel approach, the authors can improve the performance of CDS predictions. The proposed work can thereby increase the commercial value of CDS predictions to support trading decisions.

Social media provide an impressive amount of data about users and their interactions, thereby offering computer and social scientists, economists, and statisticians – among others – new opportunities for research. Arguably, one of the most interesting lines of work is that of predicting future events and developments from social media data. However, current work is fragmented and lacks of widely accepted evaluation approaches. Moreover, since the first techniques emerged rather recently, little is known about their overall potential, limitations and general applicability to different domains. Therefore, better understanding the predictive power and limitations of social media is of utmost importance.

Different types of forecasting models and their adaptation to the special circumstances of social media are analyzed and the most representative research conducted up to date is surveyed. Presentations of current research on techniques, methods, and empirical studies aimed at the prediction of future or current events from social media data are provided.

A taxonomy of prediction models is introduced, along with their relative advantages and the particular scenarios where they have been applied to. The main areas of prediction that have attracted research so far are described, and the main contributions made by the papers in this special issue are summarized. Finally, it is argued that statistical models seem to be the most fruitful approach to apply to make predictions from social media data.

This special issue raises important questions to be addressed in the field of social media-based prediction and forecasting, fills some gaps in current research, and outlines future lines of work.

This paper aims to explore the effectiveness of an artificial neural network (ANN) in predicting fraudulent financial reporting in small market capitalization companies in Malaysia.

Based on the concepts of ANN, a mathematical model was developed to compare non-fraud and fraud companies selected from among small market capitalization companies in Malaysia; the fraud companies had already been charged by the Securities Commission for falsification of financial statements. Ten financial ratios are used as fraud risk indicators to predict fraudulent financial reporting using ANN.

The findings indicate that the proposed ANN methodology outperforms other statistical techniques widely used for predicting fraudulent financial reporting.

The study is one of few to adopt the ANN approach for the prediction of financial reporting fraud.

The rapid development of e-commerce has brought not only great convenience to people but a great challenge to online stores. Phenomenon such as out of stock and slow sales has been common in recent years. These issues can be managed only when the occurrence of the sales volume is predicted in advance, and sufficient warnings can be executed in time. Thus, keeping in mind the importance of the sales prediction system, the purpose of this paper is to propose an effective sales prediction model and make digital marketing strategies with the machine learning model.

Based on the consumer purchasing behavior decision theory, we discuss the factors affecting product sales, including external factors, consumer perception, consumer potential purchase behavior and consumer traffic. Then we propose a sales prediction model, M-GNA-XGBOOST, using the time-series prediction that ensures the effective prediction of sales about each product in a short time on online stores based on the sales data in the previous term or month or year. The proposed M-GNA-XGBOOST model serves as an adaptive prediction model, for which the instant factors and the sales data of the previous period are the input, and the optimal computation is based on the proposed methodology. The adaptive prediction using the proposed model is developed based on the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GAN (Generative Adversarial Networks) and XGBOOST (eXtreme Gradient Boosting). The model inherits the advantages among the algorithms with better accuracy and forecasts the sales of each product in the store with instant data characteristics for the first time.

The analysis using Jingdong dataset proves the effectiveness of the proposed prediction method. The effectiveness of the proposed method is enhanced and the accuracy that instant data as input is found to be better compared with the model that lagged data as input. The root means squared error and mean absolute error of the proposed model are found to be around 11.9 and 8.23. According to the sales prediction of each product, the resource can be arranged in advance, and the marketing strategy of product positioning, product display optimization, inventory management and product promotion is designed for online stores.

The paper proposes and implements a new model, M-GNA-XGBOOST, to predict sales of each product for online stores. Our work provides reference and enlightenment for the establishment of accurate sales-based digital marketing strategies for online stores.

The purpose of this paper is to subject the short lived “Policy Analysis Market” (PAM) – “a Pentagon betting market on terror attacks” – and media and academic reactions to it, to some critical analysis.

The paper engages sustained invocation of the relationship between simulation and representation, for the story of the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) and its demise is replete with the tension between the two. It interrogates a range of accounts of the (un)timely demise of PAM, from the fearful senators and the moralistic media who subsumed and buttressed their position to the market evangelists for whom the failure of this particular market was merely proof of the veracity of markets elsewhere.

It is found that, inter alia, PAM was not really market‐like enough and, indeed, that it duplicated in impoverished form already existing markets that pertain to its objects of interest; that it was too much a market, given that its “goods” are seemingly inappropriate for market trade; and that it exposed too much of the truth of the actual operation of existing markets via the difficulties it confronted with regard to the possibility of insider dealing.

By contextualising PAM within the so‐called war on terror of which it was part, we see in the tension between representation and simulation, tension between a singular and a manifold reality; a set of tensions which make clear the extent of the gap that must exist between cause and effect, truth and prediction. The paper concludes by joining the celebration of PAM's demise whilst yearning for a similar fate to befall the other monologues that brought it to silence.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the growing body of research in prediction markets by using trading data as a means of characterizing trader behavior in these markets. Traders are placed in homogenous groups based on common Trading habits using clustering algorithms. Several behavioral themes are used to guide the analyses.

Several market experiments were run to collect trading data, which was then exported into a data warehouse. A secondary data analysis is performed on variables derived from the original trade data. In particular, k‐means clustering is used to form groups of traders that share common characteristics.

Participants can be classified into homogenous groups based on their trading behavior. Groups tend to differ based on the overall level of participation, how much of their trading activity is spent buying or selling, and how early they enter the market.

More research should be done using a variety of variables to further determine the impact of various types of trader behavior on prediction markets.

Using insights gained from work like this, the design of prediction markets can be fine tuned to encourage behavior that contributes to trader participation and the overall accuracy of the market predictions.

Little research has been done to evaluate the impact of trader behavior on the accuracy of prediction markets. The authors used a new prediction market implementation to collect detailed trading data. This data was then used to derive higher level trading attributes that can he used to characterize traders. The k‐means clustering algorithm was shown to be an effective means of defining groups of traders who share common market behaviors.