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Two effects simultaneously shape the future soybean meal (SBM) demand in China: the income effect on meat consumption and the transition effect due to commercial feed usage in animal production. The income effect has been studied intensively in previous research and results in rapidly growing animal product consumption. The commercial feed transition effect, however, is not well understood. The accurate forecast of SBM demand requires an integration of both effects. This study aims to contribute to the commodity forecast literature: by estimating the non-commercial to commercial feed effect and then comparing to the income effect.

This research addresses the gap in the literature by considering the diffusion path of commercial feeding technology when forecasting China's future SBM demand. The paper addresses the following five objectives to accomplish this goal. Objective 1: estimate income elasticity of demand for meat; Objective 2: estimate the current commercial feeding gap; Objective 3: analyze the reasons for low SBM feeding ratios; Objective 4: estimate future SBM feeding ratios; Objective 5: forecast future soybean demand in China.

China needs 33 years from 2009 to achieve the SBM feeding ratio of 98 percent. The difference in future derived demand for SBM mainly comes from the transition effect of animal production industry in China. The income effect only contributes on average 2.1 percent of the theoretical SBM consumption quantity over the next 20 years. The feeding technology diffusion effect, however, causes an additional 3.6 percent annual compound growth rate on the demand increase for SBM over the same time periods. The livestock industry's transition effect is roughly equivalent to 1.5 times the income effect.

Policy makers, industry managers, and analysts will now have not only a more accurate estimate of future SBM demand, but also a better understanding of the structural components of that estimation. In particular, the role of commercial feed adoption is explicitly estimated.

This research is the first to estimate the effect of the shift from non-commercial to commercial feeding systems on overall SBM demand. The results show that not accounting for the diffusion of new commercial feeding technology creates under the estimates of future SBM demand.

The purpose of this paper is to report on a research project at a safari park in Buckinghamshire, UK. The aim is to introduce lean principles to the park, to enable the park to increase profits through eliminating waste and improving the efficiency of key processes whilst concurrently increasing customer satisfaction. The research is based on a case study approach within the organisation over a period of three months. The project team worked together with management and staff to deliver tangible benefits to the park.

The research is based on a case study approach within the organisation over a period of three months. The project team worked together with management and staff to deliver tangible benefits to the park. The team adopted a three stage approach linked by two decision points and used a variety of lean tools to help map the current state of practices in the park and to identify areas for improvement in the park's processes.

The project succeeded in identifying several key areas for improvement. The current situation across a range of customer facing processes is mapped and through detailed analysis and simulations, recommendations for improvements have been delivered to the management. The scope of the project is broad and so for the purpose of this paper, only one key area will be elaborated on, feed logistics. Feed logistics is the distribution network of feed throughout the park from receipt from the suppliers, the storage locations, through to the preparation areas and ultimately the animals.

The project demonstrated that in fact the underlying philosophies and tools of lean thinking can be used with significant benefits to drive improvements in the unusual setting of a safari park. The successful application of lean thinking into a safari park proved to be an extremely unique opportunity to observe the impact of those principles in generating both tangible and intangible benefits to that organisation. In particular, as discussed in this paper, the simplification of the feed network and distribution for the park eliminated waste in the form of movement, time and inventory.

The purpose of this paper is to assess direct and indirect damages of dairy processors and pig and poultry slaughterhouses in The Netherlands following the occurrence of a feed crisis.

Starting from a number of feed crisis scenarios the paper analyses processing industry damage parameters through a combination of sector data and individual company assessments. In case of confidential data, outcomes are presented as indices.

The paper finds that, in the most likely scenario, it is expected that a feed crisis affects 15 processors, i.e. 20 per cent of processing business in The Netherlands. Processors' direct damage is largely (>90 per cent) determined by the mixing of produce during various phases of processing. Indirect damage is on average perceived not to exceed direct damage.

The results are useful in current stakeholder debates on sharing damage burdens of feed crises across supply chain partners.

This paper extends currently available risk analyses of feed contaminations by eliciting damage beyond farm level.

The purpose of this paper is to review the development of the processed feed industry in China through the lens of one of its most successful and earliest entrants, the Hope Group's “New Hope” enterprise. With the feed industry in China now facing a transition phase, the paper looks at the root causes of the problems facing China's feed industry, analyzes the transition strategy undertaken by New Hope and others, and discusses the opportunities for industry growth in the world's most populous country, where urbanization and standards of living are still on the rise and per capita use of feeds is still low by world standards (e.g. one‐fifth of that in the USA). The case also addresses the potential industry impact of mandates outlined in China's Twelfth Five‐Year Plan, such as the imperative to modernize agriculture and improve peasants’ economic well‐being.

The paper draws on expert knowledge of the CEO of New Hope Group's sister agribusiness company, West Hope Group, as well as New Hope Group annual reports and global economic data.

The study reveals future challenges to China's processed feed industry as being price of labor, raw materials, and energy rises; companies undergoing integration; and established companies shifting from product marketing to service marketing models.

This paper is useful for academics interested in industry perspectives, policymakers, practitioners, and business people considering investment in China.

How China's processed feed and breeding industries modernize will impact the economic well‐being of each link in the nation's agribusiness chain (from small producers to conglomerates), the cost and quality of animal‐based proteins, and the world's “food vs. fuel” conflicts.

The paper offers a rare insider's look at one of China's largest private companies and a global player in agribusiness.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse if German consumers are willing-to-pay a price premium for local food produced with local feed. The study provides insights into reasons explaining consumer preferences for animal products produced with local feed.

Computer self-assisted personal interviews (CASI) with 1,602 German consumers were conducted. To calculate the price premium for local feed, consumers were asked about their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for local feed. The respondents had to indicate their WTP for the local feed share levels 75, 90 and 100 per cent for pork cutlets, beef steaks, eggs and milk. To measure the impact of consumers’ attitudes and sociodemographic background on the WTP, a zero-inflated negative binomial regression model (ZINB) was calculated.

The study reveals that there is a high WTP for animal products produced with local feed. Furthermore, it delivers interesting insights into the WTP for different shares of local feed. Increasing WTPs for a 75, 90 and 100 per cent local feed origin could be found. The logit model in the zero-inflated regression showed that the buying frequency of organic foods exerted a particularly significant impact on one’s belonging to the group which has, in general, no additional WTP for locally produced feed.

Consumers’ perception of the supply chain of local products is virtually unexplored. This is one of the first papers that take this topic into account.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential market impacts of the use of insect-based protein for fish feed as an innovative approach out of the fish-meal trap.

An online questionnaire was used to elicit information on fish consumption choices among 610 German consumers using a discrete choice experiment. Mixed logit and latent class logit models were used to model consumers’ preference heterogeneity.

Results show that consumers’ preferences for fish attributes such as filets, freshness, ecolabelling and domestic production are heterogeneous and important in consumption choices. The minor share of the respondents is sensitive, while the remaining is indifferent regarding the use of insect based protein as feed in trout production. For this sensitive segment, consumption would be expected to be reduced unless the price is reduced or other attributes such as convenience aspects are improved.

The implication is that firms can substitute without a significant impact on the market demand given that the majority of consumers are indifferent regarding feed sources for trout production. As a result, it provides an innovative way to ensure sustainable use of resources and reduces the threat of fish meal trap while reducing pressure on the already over-exploited marine life.

The results provide first insights into the market impact of using insects in the animal protein value chain. It is important especially with Europe’s recent lift of the ban on using insect-based protein in the animal food industry.

High cost of feed forms a major constraint to livestock production in Nigeria. The purpose of this paper is to show how improved nutritional strategies such as incorporation of unconventional feed resources, such as rumen epithelial tissue scrapings (RETS), which are cheap in cost and availability into the livestock diets, can reduce feed cost and hence achieve a greater profit with a optimal animal performance, become imperative.

Fifteen lactating West African dwarf goats were randomly allotted into each of three dietary groups (A, B and C) of five animals in a completely randomized design. Each diet contained one of the three dietary protein sources, namely, urea (A), RETS (B) and groundnut cake (GNC) (C) representing non‐protein nitrogen, unconventional natural protein and conventional natural protein sources respectively. After 90 day feeding trial, the performances (dry matter intake, weight gain, milk yield/composition and the blood chemistry) of the goats fed with RETS diet (B) were assessed and compared with those of other two groups (A and C) fed with urea and GNC diets respectively.

The result show that goats fed with RETS and GNC diets had similar performances and performed better than those fed with urea diet.

RETS is inexpensive and portends no danger to animal health on account of toxicity, as compared to GNC and urea respectively. Its' inclusion in goat diet, however, gives a least cost wholesome ration formula.

Nutrition accounts for a greater proportion of production cost expenses in livestock industry. The results indicate that the cost of production can be minimized with the utilization of unconventional feed resources in goat nutrition for farmers to achieve the maximum profit.

This chapter reviews factors responsible for climate change, impacts of the change on animal health, zoonotic diseases, and their linkage with One-Health program.

This chapter is based on the available literature related to climate change and its effect on animal health and production from different points. The causes and change forcers of climate change, direct and indirect effects of the change on animal health management, host–pathogen–vector interaction, and zoonotic diseases are included. Inter-linkage between climate change and One-Health program are also assessed.

Beside natural causes of climatic change, greenhouse gases are increasing due to human activities, causing global climate changes which have direct and indirect animal health and production performance impacts. The direct impacts are increased ambient temperature, floods, and droughts, while the indirect are reduced availability of water and food. The change and effect also promote diseases spread, increase survival and availability of the pathogen and its intermediate vector host, responsible for distribution and prevalence of tremendous zoonotic, infectious, and vector-borne diseases. The adverse effect on the biodiversity, distribution of animals and micro flora, genetic makeup of microbials which may lead to emerging and re-emerging disease and their outbreaks make the strong linkage between climate change and One-Health.

Global climate change is receiving increasing international attention where international organizations are increasing their focus on tackling the health impacts. Thus, there is a need for parallel mitigation of climate change and animal diseases in a global form.

Most research on climate change is limited to environmental protection, however this chapter provides a nexus between climate change, animal health, livestock production, and the One-Health program for better livelihood.

In the livestock industry in Nigeria, maize is a major source of energy and it is expensive because of competition between man and animal. Dry plantain peel of minimal cost was used to replace the maize fraction of the diet of rabbit in order to reduce cost. The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance characteristics of rabbit fed plantain peel.

The feeding trial had five treatments, T₁, T₂, T₃, T₄ and T₅ in which the maize fraction in the diet was replaced at 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100 per cent, respectively. Completely randomized designs were used and each treatment was replicated thrice with three rabbits per replicate. The parameters taken were feed intake and weight gain on a daily and weekly basis. Feed conversion ratio, total feed cost and cost per weight gain were calculated.

The results show that there was no significant difference in the weight gain between the control diet (T₁) and T₃ (p < 0.05). The feed conversion ratio was relatively similar in T₁ and T₄. The cost per weight gain reduced from N53.57 in the control diet to N33.39 in T₃ (75 per cent replacement).

In the livestock industry, maize is expensive because it serves as food for both man and animal. The results indicate that the feed cost of rabbit could be reduced by replacing the maize fraction of the diet with 75 per cent dry plantain peel.

The realization of the importance of browse in meeting the nutritional needs of ruminants in the dry season in the tropics has put a serious pressure on the already known browse plants. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the nutritive value of Ficus thonningii (FT), which is a less known fodder tree.

A total of 25 West African dwarf goats (age range = 7‐9 months, live weight range = 5.0‐7.5 kg) were used for the study, and lasted for 98 days. FT was fed with Panicum maximum (PM) grass in different proportions of 0:100 (only grass), 25:75, 50:50, 75:25 and 100:0 (only Ficus) to five groups of goats. A completely randomized design was used to collect data on feed intake, digestibility, weight gain and nitrogen utilization.

Results showed that FT is higher in crude protein (CP) (20.51 per cent) and lower in neutral detergent fibre (NDF) (55.79 per cent) than PM (CP = 8.25 per cent, NDF = 76.16 per cent). Dry matter (DM), organic matter (OM), CP intakes (g/d/kg w^0.75) improved significantly with more FT in the diet and were best in 75 per cent FT (values = 79.84, 76.72 and 14.78, respectively) and lowest in solely PM (corresponding values = 21.06, 18.21 and 1.59). Weight gain (g/d) patterned nutrient intake and were best in 50 and 75 per cent FT (mean = 14.78) and least in solely PM (5.36). Digestibility values were generally good, but highest in 50 per cent FT, similar in 25, 75 and 100 per cent FT and least in solely PM. Nitrogen balance (g/d) and retention (per cent) were highest and similar in both 50 and 75 per cent FT (mean = 4.8 and 48.79) and lowest in solely grass (0.24 and 14.25).

FT displays no practical limitations to its utilization in ruminant feeding and could be used solely or in mixture with grass.

Being well consumed and utilized even as sole forage, FT will be a good insurance in alleviating feed scarcity problem for ruminant animals in the dry season.