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1 – 10 of 515The purpose of this paper is to predict the daily accuracy improvement for the Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices using deep learning (DL) with small and big data of symmetric…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to predict the daily accuracy improvement for the Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices using deep learning (DL) with small and big data of symmetric volatility information.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) neural network as the optimal DL approach for predicting daily accuracy improvement through small and big data of symmetric volatility information of the JKII based on the criteria of the highest accuracy score of testing and training. To train the neural network, this paper employs the three DL techniques, namely Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian regularization (BR) and scaled conjugate gradient (SCG).
Findings
The experimental results show that the optimal DL technique for predicting daily accuracy improvement of the JKII prices is the LM training algorithm based on using small data which provide superior prediction accuracy to big data of symmetric volatility information. The LM technique develops the optimal network solution for the prediction process with 24 neurons in the hidden layer across a delay parameter equal to 20, which affords the best predicting accuracy based on the criteria of mean squared error (MSE) and correlation coefficient.
Practical implications
This research would fill a literature gap by offering new operative techniques of DL to predict daily accuracy improvement and reduce the trading risk for the JKII prices based on symmetric volatility information.
Originality/value
This research is the first that predicts the daily accuracy improvement for JKII prices using DL with symmetric volatility information.
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Luc Chavalle and Luis Chavez-Bedoya
This paper aims to analyze the impact of transaction costs in portfolio optimization in Peru. The study aims to compare the transaction costs structure applied in Peru with…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyze the impact of transaction costs in portfolio optimization in Peru. The study aims to compare the transaction costs structure applied in Peru with respect to the ones applied in the USA, and over a few dimensions.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper opted for an empirical study analyzing the cost of rebalancing portfolios over a set period and dimensions. Stocks have been carefully selected using Bloomberg terminals, and portfolio designed then rebalanced using VBA programming. Over a few dimensions as type and number of stocks, holding period and trading strategy, the behavior of these different transaction costs has been compared. The analysis has been done for four different portfolios.
Findings
The paper provides empirical insights about how a retail investor actively trading in Peru can pay up to 14 times more in transaction costs than trading the same portfolio in the USA. These comparatively high transaction costs prevent retail investors to trade in the Peruvian stock market while fueling illiquidity to this market.
Research limitations/implications
The paper deals with a limited amount of Peruvian stocks. Researchers are encouraged to test the proposition further, including other dimensions.
Practical implications
The paper includes implications for any retail investor that wants to invest in Peruvian stocks, giving an insight about how expensive it is to actively rebalance a portfolio in Peru.
Originality/value
This paper fulfils an identified need to study how much it costs to actively invest on the stock market in Peru.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Fama–French common risk-factor portfolio investors herd on a daily basis for five developed markets, namely, Europe, Japan, Asia…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether Fama–French common risk-factor portfolio investors herd on a daily basis for five developed markets, namely, Europe, Japan, Asia Pacific ex Japan, North America and Globe.
Design/methodology/approach
To examine the herd behavior of common risk-factor portfolio investors, this paper utilizes the cross-sectional absolute deviations (CSAD) methodology, covering a daily data sampling period of July 1990 to January 2019 from Kenneth R. French-Data Library. CSAD driven by fundamental and non-fundamental information is assessed using Fama–French five-factor model.
Findings
The results do not provide evidence for herding under normal market conditions, either when reacting to fundamental information or non-fundamental information, for any region under consideration. However, Fama–French common risk-factor portfolio investors mimic the underlying risk factors in returns related to size and book-to-market value, size and operating profitability, size and investment and size and momentum of the equity stocks in European and Japanese markets during crisis period. Also, no considerable evidence is found for herding (on fundamental information) under crisis and up-market conditions except for Japan. Ancillary findings are discussed under conclusion.
Research limitations/implications
Further research on new risk factors explaining stock return variation may help improve the model performance. The performance can be improved by adding new risk factors that are free from behavioral bias but significant in explaining common stock return variation. Also, it is necessary to revisit the existing common risk factors in order to understand behavioral aspects that may affect cost of capital calculations (e.g. pricing errors) and valuation of investment portfolios.
Originality/value
This is the first paper that examines the herd behavior (fundamental and non-fundamental) of Fama–French common risk-factor investors using five-factor model.
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In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the…
Abstract
In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the composite mispricing index. Our results suggest that investors' demand for the lottery and the arbitrage risk effect of MAX may overlap and negate each other. Furthermore, MAX itself has independent information apart from idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL), which assures that the high positive correlation between IVOL and MAX does not directly cause our empirical findings. Finally, by analyzing the direct trading behavior of investors, our results suggest that investors' buying pressure for lottery-like stocks is concentrated among overpriced stocks.
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This study examines the effects of fund managers’ frequent tradings on equity mutual funds. Based on the findings, we suggest policy implications for mutual fund regulations. The…
Abstract
This study examines the effects of fund managers’ frequent tradings on equity mutual funds. Based on the findings, we suggest policy implications for mutual fund regulations. The empirical findings are as follows. First, frequent tradings cause poor performance of equity funds regardless of trading costs. Second, managers of underperforming funds buy and sell their portfolio holdings more frequently than those of outperforming funds. This implies that high trading cost is not the only source of the fund’s poor performance that exhibit frequent tradings. This phenomenon seems to be closely related to an agency problem between fund managers and investors. Finally, even when we control for the effects of fund size and cash flows, frequent tradings generate poorer performance, too. Noteworthy is that the negative impact of frequent tradings on fund return is strong for funds with heavy outflows. Our findings suggest that regulators need to strengthen the monitoring system of fund management.
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The capital asset pricing model has failed to explain the effect of systematic risk (referred to as beta) on actual stock market returns. Accordingly, this study analyzes daily…
Abstract
Purpose
The capital asset pricing model has failed to explain the effect of systematic risk (referred to as beta) on actual stock market returns. Accordingly, this study analyzes daily returns by splitting it into overnight and daytime returns. The study analysis empirically confirms a positive relationship between overnight returns and beta and a negative relation between daytime returns and beta. Furthermore, this paper aims to determine that empirical results are mostly the same with three different beta calculations, namely, daily, overnight and daytime returns. The study concludes that beta on overnight returns has the strongest explanatory power and is statistically significant.
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The turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect is observed as one of the seasonalities in many markets. The author examines the TOM effect in the KOSDAQ market and finds that the effect is…
Abstract
The turn-of-the-month (TOM) effect is observed as one of the seasonalities in many markets. The author examines the TOM effect in the KOSDAQ market and finds that the effect is significant. The TOM effect in the KOSDAQ market is not due to size, turn-of-the-year, turn-of-the-quarter or index rebalancing effect. The author also finds that individual and institutional traders do not trade and buy more stocks at the TOM than on the rest days, not consistent with existing explanations of the increased liquidity by individual investors or institutional window-dressing activity. When the author investigated the net buying volume and net turnover of each investor, the net volume and turnover of individual investors at the TOM were significantly lower than those on the other days, rejecting the hypothesis of their increased demand. Interestingly, net foreign volumes at the TOM are significantly higher than on the other days. Finally, using panel regressions, the author finds that stocks with a higher net buying volume of foreigners for the TOM period tend to have higher returns, while stocks with a higher net buying volume of individual traders for the TOM period are likely to have lower returns. The results confirm that the TOM effect is not due to the increased demand of individual investors. Instead, higher net buying volume by foreigners may partially cause the TOM effect. Therefore, this study contributes to the literature by revealing the presence of the TOM effect in the KOSDAQ market and the foreign role in the anomaly in the market even mainly traded by retail investors.
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Philani Shandu and Imhotep Paul Alagidede
The study endeavours to determine (1) whether the disposition effect exists among South African investor teams, (2) whether it is causally intensified by a set of psychosocial…
Abstract
Purpose
The study endeavours to determine (1) whether the disposition effect exists among South African investor teams, (2) whether it is causally intensified by a set of psychosocial factors and (3) whether the disposition effect causally reduces investor welfare.
Design/methodology/approach
Following a natural field experimentation design involving a sample of investor teams participating in the 2019 run of the JSE University Investment Challenge, the authors use regression adjustments as well as bootstrap tests to investigate the casual implications of a set of psychosocial factors on the intensity of the disposition effect, as well on the attenuation of market-adjusted ex post returns (i.e. investor welfare).
Findings
South African investor teams are susceptible to the disposition effect, and their susceptibility to the bias is associated with attenuated investor welfare. Furthermore, low female representation in an investor team causally intensifies the disposition effect, subsequently leading to a causal reduction in investor welfare.
Originality/value
Using evidence from real-world observation, the authors contribute to the literature on team gender diversity and investment decision-making, and – using Hofstede's (2001) cultural dimensions – the authors offer a comprehensive account for how differences in culture may lead to differences in gender-related disposition effects across different nationalities. The authors also introduce to the literature experimental evidence from the field that clearly demonstrates that – among South African investor teams – a causal relationship exists (1) between female representation and the disposition effect, and (2) between the disposition effect and investor welfare.
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Silvio John Camilleri and Francelle Galea
The purpose of this paper is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market capitalisation, dividend yield, earnings yield, company growth and the distinction between recently listed firms as opposed to more established ones.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a sample of 172 stocks from four European markets and estimate models using the entire sample data and different sub-samples to check the relative importance of the above determinants. The authors also conduct a factor analysis to re-classify the variables into a more succinct framework.
Findings
The evidence suggests that market capitalisation is the most important trading activity determinant, and the number of years listed ranks thereafter.
Research limitations/implications
The positive relation between trading activity and market capitalisation is in line with prior literature, while the findings relating to the other determinants offer further empirical evidence which is a worthy addition in view of the contradictory results in prior research.
Practical implications
This study is of relevance to practitioners who would like to understand the cross-sectional variation in stock liquidity at a more detailed level.
Originality/value
The originality of the paper rests on two important grounds: the authors focus on trading turnover rather than on other liquidity proxies, since the former is accepted as an important determinant of the liquidity-generation process, and the authors adopt a rigorous approach towards checking the robustness of the results by considering various sub-sample configurations.
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This paper aims to provide the necessity to activate long-term exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) in Korea. In the era of aging, low interest rates and low economic growth, the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide the necessity to activate long-term exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) in Korea. In the era of aging, low interest rates and low economic growth, the investment demand for long-term financial products, and its hedging demand have steadily increased. Unfortunately, long-term ETD do not trade in Korea, and this study presents political suggestions to invigorate long-term ETD based on overseas cases and empirical analysis. Specifically, this study suggests the necessity to activate exchange traded funds (ETFs) options, long-term Korea treasury bond futures and options and long-term Volatility Index of Korea Composite Stock Price Index future and options. The introduction of those long-term ETD not only contributes to providing long-term investment and hedging vehicles but also reduces market inefficiencies in the Korean industry of ETFs, bonds and structured products.
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