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Abstract

Details

Recent Developments in Transport Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-045119-0

Abstract

Details

Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-570-8

Book part
Publication date: 20 October 2015

Mohammad Shamsuddoha

Contemporary literature reveals that, to date, the poultry livestock sector has not received sufficient research attention. This particular industry suffers from unstructured…

Abstract

Contemporary literature reveals that, to date, the poultry livestock sector has not received sufficient research attention. This particular industry suffers from unstructured supply chain practices, lack of awareness of the implications of the sustainability concept and failure to recycle poultry wastes. The current research thus attempts to develop an integrated supply chain model in the context of poultry industry in Bangladesh. The study considers both sustainability and supply chain issues in order to incorporate them in the poultry supply chain. By placing the forward and reverse supply chains in a single framework, existing problems can be resolved to gain economic, social and environmental benefits, which will be more sustainable than the present practices.

The theoretical underpinning of this research is ‘sustainability’ and the ‘supply chain processes’ in order to examine possible improvements in the poultry production process along with waste management. The research adopts the positivist paradigm and ‘design science’ methods with the support of system dynamics (SD) and the case study methods. Initially, a mental model is developed followed by the causal loop diagram based on in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and observation techniques. The causal model helps to understand the linkages between the associated variables for each issue. Finally, the causal loop diagram is transformed into a stock and flow (quantitative) model, which is a prerequisite for SD-based simulation modelling. A decision support system (DSS) is then developed to analyse the complex decision-making process along the supply chains.

The findings reveal that integration of the supply chain can bring economic, social and environmental sustainability along with a structured production process. It is also observed that the poultry industry can apply the model outcomes in the real-life practices with minor adjustments. This present research has both theoretical and practical implications. The proposed model’s unique characteristics in mitigating the existing problems are supported by the sustainability and supply chain theories. As for practical implications, the poultry industry in Bangladesh can follow the proposed supply chain structure (as par the research model) and test various policies via simulation prior to its application. Positive outcomes of the simulation study may provide enough confidence to implement the desired changes within the industry and their supply chain networks.

Details

Sustaining Competitive Advantage Via Business Intelligence, Knowledge Management, and System Dynamics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-707-3

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 28 February 2007

Anil Gupta and Ann Harding

Abstract

Details

Modelling Our Future: Population Ageing, Health and Aged Care
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-808-7

Article
Publication date: 30 August 2023

Mahdi Bastan, Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam and Ali Bozorgi-Amiri

Commercial banks face several risks, including credit, liquidity, operational and disruptive risks. In addition to these risks that are challenging for banks to control and…

Abstract

Purpose

Commercial banks face several risks, including credit, liquidity, operational and disruptive risks. In addition to these risks that are challenging for banks to control and manage, crises and disasters can exert substantially more destructive shocks. These shocks can exacerbate internal risks and cause severe damage to the bank's performance, leading banks to bankruptcy and closure. This study aims to facilitate achieving resilient banking policies through a model-based assessment of business continuity management (BCM) policies.

Design/methodology/approach

By applying a system dynamics (SD) methodology, a systemic model that includes a causal structure of the banking business is presented. To build a simulation model, data are collected from a commercial bank in Iran. By presenting the simulation model of the bank's business, the consequences of some given crises on the bank's performance are tested, and the effectiveness of risk and crisis management policies is evaluated. Vensim Personal Learning Edition (PLE) software is used to construct the simulation model.

Findings

Results indicate that the current BCM policies do not show appropriate resilience in the face of various crises. Commercial banks cannot create sustainable value for the banks' shareholders despite the possibility of profitability, as the shareholders lack adequate resilience and soundness. These commercial banks do not have the appropriate resilience for the next pandemic after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Moreover, the robustness of the current banking business model is very fragile for the banking run crisis.

Practical implications

A forward-looking view of resilient banking can be obtained by combining liquidity coverage, stable funding, capital adequacy and insights from stress tests. Resilient banking requires a balanced combination of robustness, soundness and profitability.

Originality/value

The present study is a combination of bank business management, risk and resilience management and SD simulation. This approach can analyze and simulate the dynamics of bank resilience. Additionally, present of a decision support system (DSS) to analyze and simulate the outcomes of different crisis management policies and solutions is an innovative approach to developing effective and resilient banking policies.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 June 2019

S. Sepehr Ghazinoory, Shiva Tatina and Mehdi Goodarzi

Innovation and technology development policy-making naturally encounters numerous uncertainties and complexities, especially in developing countries, for the sake of the…

Abstract

Purpose

Innovation and technology development policy-making naturally encounters numerous uncertainties and complexities, especially in developing countries, for the sake of the prevailing prospect of decision makers focusing on hard evidences, and neglecting key and effective social ones; in this research, a context-based method by means of Q-methodology was designed to facilitate policy-making for complex systems by bridging between policy and practices (latent in viewpoints) through providing context-based evidences.

Design/methodology/approach

Due to the nature of knowledge-based systems, the performance of Innovation and Technology Development (ITD) systems is highly dependent on the standpoints of key players/stakeholders of the system. In consideration of Iran’s economy characteristics, Upstream Oil and Gas (UOG) Industry, which is one of the complex Large Technical Systems (LTS), was selected as a case study. Regarding the features of LTSs, the designed model was completed by adding hierarchical clustering method, as well as using the framework of innovation and technology learning transition model to analyze the results.

Findings

The results showed the capability of the model in providing credible evidences to inform policy-making processes.

Originality/value

This study is one of the first real experiences which used Q-method for providing evidence-based policy-making model in a complex Large Technical System, namely, Upstream Oil and Gas (UOG) Industry.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2024

Trung Duc Nguyen, Lanh Kim Trieu and Anh Hoang Le

This paper aims to propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to assess the response from the household sector to monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to assess the response from the household sector to monetary policy shocks through the consumption function. Moreover, the transmission from monetary policy to household consumption and income distribution is experimented with through the vector autoregression (VAR) model.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the authors used the maximum likelihood estimation to estimate the DSGE and VAR models with the sample from 1996Q1 to the end of 2021Q4 (104 observations).

Findings

The DSGE model’s results show that the response of the household sector is as expected in the theory: a monetary policy shock occurs that increases the policy interest rate by 0.29%, leading to a decrease in consumer spending of about 0.041%, the shock fades after one year. Estimates from the VAR model give similar results: a monetary policy shock narrows income inequality after about 2–3 quarters and this process tends to slow down in the long run.

Research limitations/implications

Based on the research results, the authors propose policy implications for the SBV to achieve the goal of price stability, and stabilizing the macro-economic environment in Vietnam.

Originality/value

The findings of the study have theoretical contributions and empirical scientific evidence showing the effectiveness of the implementation of the SBV’s monetary policy in the context of macro-instability, namely: flexibility, caution and coordination of different measures promptly.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 7 December 2001

Sardas M.N. Islam

Abstract

Details

Optimal Growth Economics: An Investigation of the Contemporary Issues and the Prospect for Sustainable Growth
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44450-860-7

Abstract

Details

Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-570-8

Book part
Publication date: 22 November 2012

Efrem Castelnuovo

The role of trend inflation shocks for the U.S. macroeconomic dynamics is investigated by estimating two DSGE models of the business cycle. Policymakers are assumed to be…

Abstract

The role of trend inflation shocks for the U.S. macroeconomic dynamics is investigated by estimating two DSGE models of the business cycle. Policymakers are assumed to be concerned with a time-varying inflation target, which is modeled as a persistent and stochastic process. The identification of trend inflation shocks (as opposed to a number of alternative innovations) is achieved by exploiting the measure of trend inflation recently proposed by Aruoba and Schorfheide (2011). Our main findings point to a substantial contribution of trend inflation shocks for the volatility of inflation and the policy rate. Such contribution is found to be time dependent and highest during the mid-1970s to mid-1980s.

Details

DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-305-6

Keywords

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