The role of trend inflation shocks for the U.S. macroeconomic dynamics is investigated by estimating two DSGE models of the business cycle. Policymakers are assumed to be concerned with a time-varying inflation target, which is modeled as a persistent and stochastic process. The identification of trend inflation shocks (as opposed to a number of alternative innovations) is achieved by exploiting the measure of trend inflation recently proposed by Aruoba and Schorfheide (2011). Our main findings point to a substantial contribution of trend inflation shocks for the volatility of inflation and the policy rate. Such contribution is found to be time dependent and highest during the mid-1970s to mid-1980s.
Castelnuovo, E. (2012), "Fitting U.S. Trend Inflation: A Rolling-Window Approach", Balke, N., Canova, F., Milani, F. and Wynne, M.A. (Ed.) DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 28), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 201-252. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-9053(2012)0000028008
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