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Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan and Niaz Ali

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis.

Findings

The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA.

Originality/value

This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 December 2023

Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

Findings

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2023

Francesco Busato, Maria Ferrara and Monica Varlese

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

While investigating disinflation costs, the authors simulate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, credit frictions and macroprudential authority.

Findings

Providing discussions on different policy scenarios in a context where still it is expected high inflation, there are three key contributions. First, when macroprudential authority actively operates to improve financial stability, losses caused by disinflation are limited. Second, a Taylor rule directly responding to financial variables might entail a trade-off between price and financial stability objectives, by increasing disinflation costs. Third, disinflation is welfare improving for savers, while costly for borrowers and banks. Indeed, while savers benefit from policies reducing price stickiness distortion, borrowers are worried about credit frictions, coming from collateral constraint.

Practical implications

The paper suggests threefold policy implications: the macroprudential authority should actively intervene during a disinflation process to minimize costs and financial instability deriving from it; policymakers should implement a disinflationary policy stabilizing also output; the central bank and the macroprudential regulator should pursue financial and price stability goals, separately.

Originality/value

This paper is the first attempt to study effects of a permanent inflation target reduction in focusing on the macroprudential policy’ role.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 November 2023

Fouad Jamaani and Abdullah M. Alawadhi

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock…

Abstract

Purpose

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock market growth. Thus, this paper aims to examine the impact of inflation on the probability of initial public offering (IPO) withdrawal decision.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs a large dataset that covers the period January 1995–December 2019 and comprises 33,536 successful or withdrawn IPOs from 22 nations with various legal and cultural systems. This study applies a probit model utilizing version 15 of Stata statistical software.

Findings

This study finds that inflation is substantially and positively correlated with the likelihood of IPO withdrawal. Results of this study show that the IPO withdrawal decision increases up to 90% when the inflation rate climbs by 10%. Multiple robustness tests provide consistent findings.

Practical implications

This study's implications are important for researchers, investment banks, underwriters, issuers, regulators and stock exchanges. When processing IPO proposals, investment banks, underwriters and issuers must consider inflation projections to avoid negative effects, as demonstrated by the findings. In addition, regulators and stock exchanges must be aware of the detrimental impact of inflation on competitiveness in attracting new listings.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to present convincing evidence of a major relationship between IPO withdrawal decision and inflation.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2023

Kofi Kamasa, Solomon Luther Afful and Isaac Bentum-Ennin

This paper seeks to examine the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on the lending rates of commercial banks in Ghana.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to examine the effect of monetary policy rate (MPR) on the lending rates of commercial banks in Ghana.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model as well as the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model econometric techniques on a quarterly time series data from 2002 to 2018.

Findings

The ARDL results revealed that, MPR has a positive and significant effect on lending rate in the long and short run. Although there exists a direct relationship between MPR and lending rate, from the NARDL revealed an asymmetric effect of MPR on lending rate to the effect that, lending rate in Ghana responds more to positive shock (a rise in MPR) compared to a negative shock (a decrease in MPR) both in the long and short run.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to policy and literature in Ghana by providing empirical evidence on the asymmetric effect that MPR has on lending rates in Ghana. The paper recommends among others, the establishment of a rating system of banks according to their monetary policy compliance, where highly rated banks could have for instance a reduction on borrowed reserves from the central bank.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2023

Yu Li and Xiaoyang Zhu

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a fiscal expansion on private consumption and the real effective exchange rate.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses a sign-restriction method to identify a fiscal shock in the panel structural VAR analysis in the context of both developed and developing countries.

Findings

The authors’ find that (1) private consumption increases in response to a positive government spending shock in both groups, yet such consumption effect is greater in developing than industrial countries; (2) the response of real effective exchange rate to the government spending shock varies across groups: it depreciates in developed countries and appreciates in developing countries; (3) trade balance improves in both groups.

Originality/value

This study sheds light on the differential effects of fiscal shock on consumption and real exchange rate in both developed and developing economies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2024

Faris Alshubiri, Samia Fekir and Billal Chikhi

The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate…

Abstract

Purpose

The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate in 36 developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The panel data conducted a comparative analysis and used panel least squares, regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors of fixed effect, random effect, feasible generalised least squares and maximum likelihood robust least squares to overcome the heterogeneity issue. Furthermore, the two-step difference generalised method of moments to overcome the endogeneity issue. Diagnostic tests were used to increase robustness.

Findings

In the studied countries, there was a statistically significant negative relationship between received remittance inflows and the price-level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate. This relationship explains why remittance flows depreciate the real exchange rate. The study’s results also indicated that attracting investments can improve the quality of institutions despite high tax rates, leading to low tax revenue.

Originality/value

The current study findings enrich the understanding of policies of how governments should minimise tariff rates on capital imports and introduce export-oriented incentive programmes. The study also revealed that Dutch disease can occur due to differences in the demand structure and manufacturing development policy.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Zeqi Liu, Zefeng Tong and Zhonghua Zhang

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.

Findings

The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.

Originality/value

This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 December 2023

Yahuza Abdul Rahman, Anthony Kofi Osei-Fosu and Daniel Sakyi

This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.

Findings

Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.

Practical implications

The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.

Originality/value

The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 March 2023

Imran Khan

BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) a group of five emerging nations that are expected to lead the global economy by the year 2050. The growth potential of…

Abstract

Purpose

BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) a group of five emerging nations that are expected to lead the global economy by the year 2050. The growth potential of these nations attracts investors from all over the world who are in search of maximizing the return on their investments and limiting the losses to the lowest possible level. The purpose of this research study is to determine whether or not Indian stock market investors can diversify their stock market portfolios into other BRICS economies.

Design/methodology/approach

A daily frequency of stock market closing data for the BRICS nations over a period of 2013–2021 has been considered and several econometric techniques have been applied. Starting with the Granger causality test for checking the direction of causality. The VAR technique is applied to find out whether the movement in the Indian stock market is influenced by its own past values or the past values of the other BRICS nations, and lastly, the DCC-MGARCH technique is applied to check the degree of integration or the volatility spillover from the Indian stock market to the stock markets of other BRICS nations.

Findings

The results of the study indicated that in both the short term and long term, stock market volatility is spilling over from the Indian stock market to the stock markets of other BRICS nations. Hence, the study suggests that BRICS nations cannot be a destination for portfolio diversification for Indian stock market investors.

Originality/value

The stock markets of emerging nations experience high volatility, which creates confusion for investors as to whether to invest or to abstain from portfolio diversification. At present, there is a gap in the existing literature to capture the stock market volatility of BRICS nations. This research study fills this research gap and confirms that BRICS nations cannot be a destination for portfolio diversification. Moreover, equity market experts, portfolio managers and researchers can all take advantage of this study.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

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