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Article
Publication date: 5 February 2024

Karlo Marques Junior

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each…

21

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 December 2023

Hai Le and Phuong Nguyen

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the importance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand. To this end, the authors construct a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model encompasses several essential characteristics, including incomplete financial markets, incomplete exchange rate pass-through, deviations from the law of one price and a banking sector. The authors consider generalized Taylor rules, in which policymakers adjust policy rates in response to output, inflation, credit growth and exchange rate fluctuations. The marginal likelihoods are then employed to investigate whether the central bank responds to fluctuations in the exchange rate and credit growth.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs a small open economy DSGE model and then estimates the model using Bayesian methods.

Findings

The authors demonstrate that the monetary authority does target exchange rates, whereas there is no evidence in favor of incorporating credit growth into the policy rules. These findings survive various robustness checks. Furthermore, the authors demonstrate that domestic shocks contribute significantly to domestic business cycles. Although the terms of trade shock plays a minor role in business cycles, it explains the most significant proportion of exchange rate fluctuations, followed by the country risk premium shock.

Originality/value

This study is the first attempt at exploring the relevance of exchange rate and credit growth fluctuations when designing monetary policy in Thailand.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2023

Francesco Busato, Maria Ferrara and Monica Varlese

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes real and welfare effects of a permanent change in inflation rate, focusing on macroprudential policy’ role and its interaction with monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

While investigating disinflation costs, the authors simulate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model with borrowing constraints, credit frictions and macroprudential authority.

Findings

Providing discussions on different policy scenarios in a context where still it is expected high inflation, there are three key contributions. First, when macroprudential authority actively operates to improve financial stability, losses caused by disinflation are limited. Second, a Taylor rule directly responding to financial variables might entail a trade-off between price and financial stability objectives, by increasing disinflation costs. Third, disinflation is welfare improving for savers, while costly for borrowers and banks. Indeed, while savers benefit from policies reducing price stickiness distortion, borrowers are worried about credit frictions, coming from collateral constraint.

Practical implications

The paper suggests threefold policy implications: the macroprudential authority should actively intervene during a disinflation process to minimize costs and financial instability deriving from it; policymakers should implement a disinflationary policy stabilizing also output; the central bank and the macroprudential regulator should pursue financial and price stability goals, separately.

Originality/value

This paper is the first attempt to study effects of a permanent inflation target reduction in focusing on the macroprudential policy’ role.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Zeqi Liu, Zefeng Tong and Zhonghua Zhang

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the differences in the economic stimulus effects, transmission mechanisms, and output multipliers of government consumption, government traditional investment, and government science and technology investment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study constructs and estimates a New Keynesian model of endogenous technological progress embedded in the research and development (R&D) and technology transfer sectors. Using Chinese macroeconomic time series data from 1996 to 2019, this study calibrates and estimates the model and analyzes the impulse response function and a counterfactual simulation of expenditure structure adjustment.

Findings

The results show that compared with the traditional dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the endogenous process of technological progress amplifies the impact of government consumption shock and traditional government investment shock on the macroeconomy, leading to greater economic cycle fluctuations. As government investment in science and technology has positive external spillover effects on firm R&D activities and the application of innovation achievements, it can promote more sustainable economic growth than government consumption and traditional investment in the long run.

Originality/value

This study constructs an extended New Keynesian model with different types of government spending, which includes endogenous technological progress within the R&D and technology transfer sectors, thereby linking fiscal policy, business cycle fluctuations and long-term economic growth. This model can study the macroeconomic impact of fiscal expenditure structure adjustment when fiscal expansion is limited. In the Bayesian estimation of model parameters, this study not only uses macroeconomic variables but also adds a sequence of private R&D investment.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Eleni Dalla, Stephanos Papadamou, Erotokritos Varelas and Athanasios Argyropoulos

Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government…

Abstract

Purpose

Our purpose is the examination of the effects of fiscal policy on private lending for the Eurozone countries. The emphasis is on the identification of the time path of government spending and bank lending.

Design/methodology/approach

Fiscal policy is a main factor of macroeconomic stability for the euro area economy. This paper, investigates the impact of government spending on bank lending. For this reason, we present a dynamic theoretical model with a perfectly competitive banking sector, estimated using panel cointegration for the Eurozone countries from 2000Q1 to 2022Q2.

Findings

Our findings highlight that, in the long run, consistent management of government spending can have a beneficial multiplicative impact on bank lending for housing and business reasons. This finding is stronger in magnitude for business versus housing lending. The high level of homogeneity of our results across Eurozone countries has positive implications for a common fiscal policy in the future. Finally, authorities should know that policy adjustments are quicker in housing lending when compared to business lending.

Originality/value

In this paper, we contribute to the existing literature, concentrating on the investigation of any existence of long-run and short-run relationships between government spending and bank lending. Additionally, our analysis allows one to investigate the contribution of each Eurozone member state in the short-run and long-run model’s dynamics, providing significant outcomes for the implementation of economic policy and the need for fiscal discipline in the Eurozone.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 October 2022

Fariba Ramezani, Amir Arjomandi and Charles Harvie

As a by-product of the production process, emissions can follow output fluctuations. Hence, disregarding the relationship between economic fluctuations and emissions could result…

Abstract

Purpose

As a by-product of the production process, emissions can follow output fluctuations. Hence, disregarding the relationship between economic fluctuations and emissions could result in undesirable environmental outcomes. This study aims to investigate the environmental and economic effects of abatement subsidies on overall emissions during business cycles in Australia.

Design/methodology/approach

A real business cycle (RBC) model is devised and parameterised in this paper. RBC models have been recently introduced to environmental policy analysis, and this study contributes to the literature by investigating the effects of a potential subsidy policy in an RBC framework. The model is also calibrated and provides solutions for the Australian economy.

Findings

The authors find that under a steady-state situation, supporting abatement can result in reducing emissions by 6.45% while it imposes welfare costs to the economy (by 0.61%). Simulation results show that an optimal abatement policy should be pro-cyclical, with the abatement subsidy increasing during expansions and decreasing during recessions. As well, in a subsidy policy setting, emissions would react pro-cyclically, i.e. emissions increase (decrease) when the gross domestic product increases (decreases). The abatement reaction by firms, however, is different, because when a positive productivity shock occurs, firms reduce abatement and allocate resources to production. Nonetheless, as time passes, the increased subsidy provides a strong enough incentive to allocate resources to abatement and, subsequently, abatement increases.

Originality/value

This paper investigates how an emission reduction subsidy should be adapted to macroeconomic fluctuations so that it can limit variations in emissions.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2023

Yu Li and Xiaoyang Zhu

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a…

Abstract

Purpose

The degree of development and the way to identify a fiscal shock matter in evaluating the effects of the fiscal policy. This paper contributes to the debate on the effects of a fiscal expansion on private consumption and the real effective exchange rate.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses a sign-restriction method to identify a fiscal shock in the panel structural VAR analysis in the context of both developed and developing countries.

Findings

The authors’ find that (1) private consumption increases in response to a positive government spending shock in both groups, yet such consumption effect is greater in developing than industrial countries; (2) the response of real effective exchange rate to the government spending shock varies across groups: it depreciates in developed countries and appreciates in developing countries; (3) trade balance improves in both groups.

Originality/value

This study sheds light on the differential effects of fiscal shock on consumption and real exchange rate in both developed and developing economies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 April 2022

Aleksandar Vasilev

The author augments an otherwise standard business cycle model with a richer government sector and adds money-in-utility (MIU) considerations to study economic fluctuations.

Abstract

Purpose

The author augments an otherwise standard business cycle model with a richer government sector and adds money-in-utility (MIU) considerations to study economic fluctuations.

Design/methodology/approach

More specifically, real money balances enter in a non-separable way with consumption and leisure. This specification is then calibrated to Bulgarian data after the introduction of the currency board (1999–2020) gives a role to money in accentuating economic fluctuations.

Findings

This novel mechanism allows the framework to reproduce – better than the real business cycle (RBC) model – the observed variability and correlations among model variables, and those characterizing the labor market in particular. In addition, money is non-neutral and affects aggregate economic activity.

Originality/value

This is the first micro-founded monetary-DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model on Bulgaria trying to explain the role of money for economic fluctuations.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

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