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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of loan officers’ overconfidence on risk-taking decision and solvency performance measured by z-scores in the context of Islamic and conventional microfinance institutions (MFIs).

A random effect generalized least square regression was applied to examine the effect of overconfidence on credit risk-taking. The data set covers 326 conventional MFIs and 57 Islamic MFIs in six different regions over the period of 2005–2015.

Overconfidence proxies have shown through high loan growth, low-interest margin and loan loss provision reveal negative consequences on risk-exposures for both MFIs averagely. The loan officer’s overconfidence is significantly and positively related to the risk-taking decision, and thus, a lower loan portfolio quality. Besides, loan officers’ risk-taking behaviour harms these institutions’ solvency performance.

This paper makes an initial attempt to evaluate the effect of overconfidence behavioural bias on risk-taking decisions and its implication on the MFIs solvency and sustainability.

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market, investor’s sentiment and oil market, specifically during the 2014‒2016 turmoil period.

This study used the daily and monthly China market price index, oil-price index and composite index of Chinese investor’s sentiment. The authors first use the DCC GARCH model in order to study the correlation between variables. Second, the authors use a continuous wavelet decomposition technique so as to capture both time- and frequency-varying features of co-movement variables. Finally, the authors examine the spillover effects by estimating the BEKK GARCH model.

The wavelet coherency results indicate a substantial co-movement between oil and Chinese stock markets in the periods of high volatility. BEKK GARCH model outcomes confirm this relation and report the noteworthy bidirectional transmission of volatility between oil market shocks and the Chinese investor’s sentiment, chiefly in the crisis period. These results support the behavioral theory of contagion and highlight that the Chinese investor’s sentiment is a channel through which shocks are transmitted between the oil and Chinese equity markets. Thus, these results are important for Chinese authorities that should monitor the investor’s sentiment to better control the interaction between financial and real markets.

This study makes three major contributions to the existing literature. First, it pays attention to the recent 2015 Chinese stock market bumble. Second, it has gone some way toward enhancing our understanding of the volatility spillover between the investor’s sentiment, investor’s sentiment variation, oil prices and stock market returns (variables of interest) during oil and stock market crises. Third, it uses the continuous wavelet decomposition technique since it reveals the linkage between variables of interest at different time horizons.

This paper investigates the predictive impact of Financial Stress on hedging between the oil market and the GCC stock and bond markets from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2020. The authors also compare the hedging performance of in-sample and out-of-sample analyses.

For the modeling purpose, the authors combine the GARCH-BEKK model with the machine learning approach to predict the transmission of shocks between the financial markets and the oil market. The authors also examine the hedging performance in order to obtain well-diversified portfolios under both Financial Stress cases, using a One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) model.

According to the results, the in-sample analysis shows that investors can use oil to hedge stock markets under positive Financial Stress. In addition, the authors prove that oil hedging is ineffective in reducing market risks for bond markets. The out-of-sample results demonstrate the ability of hedging effectiveness to minimize portfolio risk during the recent pandemic in both Financial Stress cases. Interestingly, hedgers will have a more efficient hedging performance in the stock and oil market in the case of positive (negative) Financial Stress. The findings seem to be confirmed by the Diebold-Mariano test, suggesting that including the negative (positive) Financial Stress in the hedging strategy displays better out-of-sample performance than the in-sample model.

This study improves the understanding of the whole sample and positive (negative) Financial Stress estimates and forecasts of hedge effectiveness for both the out-of-sample and in-sample estimates. A portfolio strategy based on transmission shock prediction provides diversification benefits.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index, Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies and halal chain in the presence of state (regime) dynamics.

The authors have used the Markov-switching model to identify bull and bear market regimes. Moreover, the dynamic conditional correlation, the Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner- generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and the wavelet coherence models are applied to detect the presence of spillover and contagion effects.

The findings indicate various patterns of spillover between halal chain, Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index and Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies in high and low volatility regimes, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, the contagion dynamics depend on the bull or bear periods of markets.

These present empirical findings are important for current and potential traders in gold-backed cryptocurrencies in that they facilitate a better understanding of this new type of assets. Indeed, halal chain is a safe haven asset that should be combined with Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies for better performance in portfolio optimization and hedging, mainly during the COVID-19 period.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first research on the impact of the halal chain on the Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index return, Islamic gold-backed cryptocurrencies returns in the bear and bull markets around the global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper aims to examine the dynamic spillover effects and network connectedness between the oil prices and the Islamic and conventional financial markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The focus is on network connectedness during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the 2014–2016 oil crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors use daily data covering the period from January 1, 2007 to April 14, 2022.

This study applies a spillover analysis and connectedness network to investigate the risk contagion among the Islamic and conventional stock–bond markets. The authors rely on Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012, 2014) methodology to construct network-associated measures.

The results suggest that overall connectedness among financial market uncertainties increased during the global financial crisis, the oil price collapse of 2014–2016 and the COVID-19 crisis. In addition, the authors show that the contribution of oil shocks to the financial system is limited, as the oil market was a net receiver during the 2014 oil shock and the COVID-19 crisis. On the other hand, the Islamic and conventional stock markets are extensive sources of network effects on the oil market and Islamic and conventional bond markets. Furthermore, the authors found that the Sukuk market was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, whereas the conventional and Islamic stock markets were the highest transmitters of shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Moreover, oil revealed a weak connectedness with the Islamic and conventional stock markets during the COVID-19 health crisis, implying that it helps provide diversification benefits for international portfolio investors.

This study contributes to this field by improving the understanding of the effect of fluctuations in oil prices on the dynamics of the volatility connection between oil and Islamic and conventional financial markets during times of stress through a network connectedness framework. The main results of this study highlight the role of oil in portfolio allocation and risk minimization when investing in Islamic and conventional assets.

This paper examines the impact of political instability on the investors' behavior, measured by Google search queries, and on the dynamics of stock market returns.

First, by using the DCC-GARCH model, the authors examine the effect of investor sentiment on the Tunisian stock market return. Second, the authors employ the fully modified dynamic ordinary least square method (FMOL) to estimate the long-term relationship between investor sentiment and Tunisian stock market return. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherence model to test the co-movement between investor sentiment measured by Google Trends and Tunisian stock market return.

Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), the authors find that Google search queries index has the ability to reflect political events especially the Tunisian revolution. In addition, empirical results of fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method reveal that Google search queries index has a slightly higher effect on Tunindex return after the Tunisian revolution than before this revolution. Furthermore, by employing wavelet coherence model, the authors find strong comovement between Google search queries index and return index during the period of the Tunisian revolution political instability. Moreover, in the frequency domain, strong coherence can be found in less than four months and in 16–32 months during the Tunisian revolution which show that the Google search queries measure was leading over Tunindex return. In fact, wavelet coherence analysis confirms the result of DCC that Google search queries index has the ability to detect the behavior of Tunisian investors especially during the period of political instability.

This study provides empirical evidence to portfolio managers that may use Google search queries index as a robust measure of investor's sentiment to select a suitable investment and to make an optimal investments decisions.

The important research question of how political instability affects stock market dynamics has been neglected by scholars. This paper attempts principally to fill this void by investigating the time-varying interactions between market returns, volatility and Google search based index, especially during Tunisian revolution.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation “diversification-risk-performance” for Islamic and conventional banks in different financial stress levels. Also, it aims to investigate the impact of the structure of board directors, macroeconomic variables and banking specific factors on banking diversification.

The authors use generalized least squares regressions to examine the impact of banking specific, macroeconomic and governance variables on investment diversification of 66 Islamic and conventional banks during the period from 2006 to 2018. In addition, this study uses panel threshold regressions to study the impact of banks’ profitability and risks on investment diversification in different financial stress levels.

The findings show liquidity risk, performance, credit risk and capitalization ratio are significantly related to investment diversification of Islamic banks. On the other hand, liquidity and credit risks, capital to total assets ratio and size have a significant influence on investment diversification of conventional banks. In addition, the diversification strategy of Islamic banks is less sensitive to macroeconomic indicators. As regards to governance variables, the results suggest that the board size, the executive directors and the foreign directors have significant impact on the investment diversification in Islamic banks. On the other hand, chief executive officer duality and foreign directors affect significantly the investment diversification of conventional banks. This study also found that financial stress enables us to develop a better understanding of the relation “performance-risks and diversification.”

It is expected that the findings of this paper can be used by Islamic and conventional banks in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region that seek to manage the diversification strategy by reducing risk-taking and maximizing profitability. This study suggests that bank managers should consider the level of financial stress during the development of diversification strategy. It provides a better understanding for bank managers about the effect of bank specific and macroeconomics factors as well as governance variables on diversification.

This study focuses on providing an extension of the existing literature by studying the impact of financial stress indices on the relation between banks’ risk-performance and investment diversification for Islamic and conventional banks in the GCC region.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) offering FinTech services. This study contributes to the existing literature on microfinance digitalization, financial inclusion and sustainable development. The study also takes into consideration a behavioral perspective through the efficiency evaluation process of MFIs offering FinTech services.

The following study employs the Stochastic Frontier Analysis approach to estimate the operational and social efficiency scores of the 387 MFIs over the period 2005–2019. Then, it tries to consider factors influencing MFIs' efficiency and assess their effects. Hence, two separate models for operation and social efficiency introducing a set of factors, including FinTech proxies and overconfidence proxies, are tested. The first model for operational efficiency uses a random-effects estimator while the second one for social efficiency uses a fixed-effects estimator.

The results show that innovative MFIs have weaker averages of operational efficiency than non-innovative ones but higher averages of social efficiency. This was justified by the fact that innovative MFIs are more socially oriented. Further, findings of this study depict that the proxies of FinTech affect negatively the level of operational efficiency of MFIs. They also depict a negative relationship between FinTech proxies and the level of social efficiency. These results hold through robustness tests.

The highlight of this study is that it takes heed of the indirect effect of technological innovation on the efficiency of MFIs. It has been proved that it moderates the impact of managerial overconfidence (manifested by excessive risk-taking, viz., high levels of PAR30, LGR and NIM) on the level of both operational and social efficiencies.

本文旨在對提供金融科技服務的微型金融機構的表現作出評價。我們的研究, 就現有之學術文獻而言, 在以下課題之探討上作出了貢獻: 微型金融的數字化、普惠金融、以及可持續發展。本研究亦以行為主義觀點, 對微型金融機構提供之金融科技服務的效率作出評價。

本研究使用隨機邊界分析法的理念, 去估計有關的387間微型金融機構於2005年至2019年期間、經營方面和社會方面的效率分數; 繼而嘗試找出影響微型金融機構效率的因素, 並評估這些因素的影響。為此目的, 研究人員分別測試兩個模型, 一個是探究運作方面的效率, 另一個則探究社會方面的效率。兩個模型內均放入一系列的因素, 其中包括金融科技代理和過度自信代理。探究運作方面的效率的模型使用了隨機效果估算器, 而探究社會方面的效率的模型則使用了固定效果估算器。

研究結果顯示、具創新精神的微型金融機構, 在運作方面的效率的平均值上,較沒具創新精神的為弱, 而社會方面的效率的平均值卻較高。這個結果是合理的, 因為具創新精神的微型金融機構會更著眼於社會。另外, 研究結果描繪了一個現象, 就是: 金融科技代理會對微型金融機構的運作效率水平產生負面影響; 我們也看到、金融科技代理與社會方面的效率水平之間的關聯是負面的; 這些研究結果、均通過穩健性檢驗。

本研究最突出之處為研究人員關注科技之創新會間接影響微型金融機構的效率。研究人員證明了於微型金融機構整合金融科技服務是會緩和管理上的過度自信給運作和社會兩方面的效率水平帶來的影響 (管理上的過度自信、顯露於過度的風險承擔, 即是, PAR30(貸款組合風險-30日)、LGR(貸款增長率) 和NIM(淨息差) 處於高水平)。

This study aims to investigate the transmission of shock between the oil market and the Islamic and conventional stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries during the oil shocks of 2008 and 2014.

This study uses two models. First, the dynamic conditional correlation–generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model has been used to capture the fundamental contagion effects between the oil market and the Islamic and conventional stock markets during the tranquil and turmoil-crisis periods of 2008-2014. Second, the filter of Kalman has been used to capture the effects of pure contagion between the oil market and the GCC Islamic and conventional stock markets. The authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil returns and stock returns of GCC Islamic and GCC conventional indices.

The main findings of this investigation are: first, the estimation of the dynamic conditional correlation– generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model for oil market and the Islamic and conventional stock markets proves that the Islamic and conventional stock markets and oil market displayed a significant increase in the dynamic correlation during the turmoil period, from mid-2008 and mid-2014. This proves the existence of contagion between the markets studied. Second, the authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil returns and stock returns of GCC Islamic and GCC conventional indices. They show a strong increase in the correlation coefficients between the oil market and the conventional GCC stock markets, and between the conventional and Islamic GCC stock markets during the oil crisis of 2014. However, there is no change in regime in the figure of the correlation coefficient between the oil market and the GCC Islamic stock markets during the 2008 financial crisis. This pure contagion is mainly attributed to the herding bias in 2014 oil crisis.

This study contributes to identifying the contribution of herding bias on the volatility transmission between the oil markets, and the GCC Islamic and conventional stock market, especially during two controversial shocks: the 2008 oil-price increase and the 2014 oil drop.

The purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of credit risk-taking on financial and social efficiency and examine the relationship between credit risk, capital structure and efficiency in the context of Islamic microfinance institutions (MFIs) compared to their conventional counterparts.

The stochastic frontier approach was used to estimate the financial and social efficiency scores, in a first step. In a second step, the impact of risk-taking on efficiency was evaluated. The authors also took into account the moderating role of capital structure in this effect using the fixed and random effects generalized least squares (GLS) with a first-order autoregressive disturbance. The used dataset covers 326 conventional MFIs and 57 Islamic MFIs in six different regions of the world over the period of 2005–2015.

The overall average efficiency scores are less than 50%, where CMFIs could have produced their outputs using 48% of their actual inputs. IMFIs record the lowest financial (cost) efficiency that is equal to 28% on average. The estimation results also reveal a negative impact of nonperforming loan on financial and social efficiency. Finally, the moderating effect of leverage funding on the relationship between credit risk-taking and financial efficiency was confirmed in CMFIs. However, leverage seems to moderate the effect of risk-taking behavior on social efficiency for IMFIs.

This paper makes an initial attempt to evaluate the effect of risk-taking decision and its implication on efficiency and MFIs' sustainability. Besides, it takes into consideration the role played by the mode of governance through the ownership structure. In addition, this research study sheds light on the importance of the financial support for the development and sustainability of these institutions, which in return, contributes to a sustainable economic development.