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Over the past two decades, online booking has become a predominant distribution channel of tourism products. As online sales have become more important, understanding booking conversion behavior remains a critical topic in the tourism industry. The purpose of this study is to model airline search and booking activities of anonymous visitors.

This study proposes a stochastic approach to explicitly model dynamics of airline customers’ search, revisit and booking activities. A Markov chain model simultaneously captures transition probabilities and the timing of search, revisit and booking decisions. The suggested model is demonstrated on clickstream data from an airline booking website.

Empirical results show that low prices (captured as discount rates) lead to not only booking propensities but also overall stickiness to a website, increasing search and revisit probabilities. From the decision timing of search and revisit activities, the author observes customers’ learning effect on browsing time and heterogeneous intentions of website visits.

This study presents both theoretical and managerial implications of online search and booking behavior for airline and tourism marketing. The dynamic Markov chain model provides a systematic framework to predict online search, revisit and booking conversion and the time of the online activities.

The application of statistical inversion theory provides a powerful approach for solving estimation problems including the ability for uncertainty quantification (UQ) by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and Monte Carlo integration. This paper aims to analyze the application of a state reduction technique within different MCMC techniques to improve the computational efficiency and the tuning process of these algorithms.

A reduced state representation is constructed from a general prior distribution. For sampling the Metropolis Hastings (MH) Algorithm and the Gibbs sampler are used. Efficient proposal generation techniques and techniques for conditional sampling are proposed and evaluated for an exemplary inverse problem.

For the MH-algorithm, high acceptance rates can be obtained with a simple proposal kernel. For the Gibbs sampler, an efficient technique for conditional sampling was found. The state reduction scheme stabilizes the ill-posed inverse problem, allowing a solution without a dedicated prior distribution. The state reduction is suitable to represent general material distributions.

The state reduction scheme and the MCMC techniques can be applied in different imaging problems. The stabilizing nature of the state reduction improves the solution of ill-posed problems. The tuning of the MCMC methods is simplified.

The paper presents a method to improve the solution process of inverse problems within the Bayesian framework. The stabilization of the inverse problem due to the state reduction improves the solution. The approach simplifies the tuning of MCMC methods.

Disaster management and humanitarian logistics (HT) play crucial roles in large-scale events such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and tsunamis. Well-organized disaster response is crucial for effectively managing medical centres, staff allocation and casualty distribution during emergencies. To address this issue, this study aims to introduce a multi-objective stochastic programming model to enhance disaster preparedness and response, focusing on the critical first 72 h after earthquakes. The purpose is to optimize the allocation of resources, temporary medical centres and medical staff to save lives effectively.

This study uses stochastic programming-based dynamic modelling and a discrete-time Markov Chain to address uncertainty. The model considers potential road and hospital damage and distance limits and introduces an a-reliability level for untreated casualties. It divides the initial 72 h into four periods to capture earthquake dynamics.

Using a real case study in Istanbul’s Kartal district, the model’s effectiveness is demonstrated for earthquake scenarios. Key insights include optimal medical centre locations, required capacities, necessary medical staff and casualty allocation strategies, all vital for efficient disaster response within the critical first 72 h.

This study innovates by integrating stochastic programming and dynamic modelling to tackle post-disaster medical response. The use of a Markov Chain for uncertain health conditions and focus on the immediate aftermath of earthquakes offer practical value. By optimizing resource allocation amid uncertainties, the study contributes significantly to disaster management and HT research.

The combined effects of several complex phenomena cause the deterioration of elements in steel hydraulic structures (SHSs) within the US lock system: corrosion, cracking and fatigue, impact and overloads. Predicting the future condition state of these structures by the use of current condition state inspection data can be achieved through the probabilistic chain deterioration model. The purpose of this study is to derive the transition probability matrix using final elements modeling of a miter gate.

If predicted accurately, this information would yield benefits in determining the need for rehabilitation or replacement of SHS. However, because of the complexity and difficulties on obtaining sufficient inspection data, there is a lack of available condition states needed to formulate proper transition probability matrices for each deterioration case.

This study focuses on using a three-dimensional explicit finite element analysis (FEM) of a miter gate that has been fully validated with experimental data to derive the transition probability matrix when the loss of flexural capacity in a corroded member is simulated.

New methodology using computational mechanics to derive the transition probability matrices of navigation steel structures has been presented.

The difficulty of deriving the transition probability matrix to perform a Markovian analysis increases when limited amount of inspection data is available. The used state of practice FEM to derive the transition probability matrix is not just necessary but also essential when the need for proper maintenance is required but limited amount of the condition of the structural system is unknown.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the linear regression parameters using two alternative techniques. First technique is to apply the generalized linear model (GLM) and the second technique is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.

In this paper, the authors adopted the incurred claims of Egyptian non-life insurance market as a dependent variable during a 10-year period. MCMC uses Gibbs sampling to generate a sample from a posterior distribution of a linear regression to estimate the parameters of interest. However, the authors used the R package to estimate the parameters of the linear regression using the above techniques.

These procedures will guide the decision-maker for estimating the reserve and set proper investment strategy.

In this paper, the authors will estimate the parameters of a linear regression model using MCMC method via R package. Furthermore, MCMC uses Gibbs sampling to generate a sample from a posterior distribution of a linear regression to estimate parameters to predict future claims. In the same line, these procedures will guide the decision-maker for estimating the reserve and set proper investment strategy.

Climate change has aroused widespread concern around the world, which is one of the most complex challenges encountered by human beings. The underlying cause of climate change is the increase of carbon emissions. To reduce carbon emissions, the analysis of the factors affecting this type of emission is of practical significance.

This paper identified five factors affecting carbon emissions using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model (e.g. per capita carbon emissions, industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure and per capita GDP). Besides, based on the projection pursuit method, this paper obtained the optimal projection directions of five influencing factors in 30 provinces (except for Tibet). Based on the data from 2000 to 2014, the authors predicted the optimal projection directions in the next six years under the Markov transfer matrix.

The results indicated that per capita GDP was the critical factor for reducing carbon emissions. The industrial structure and population intensified carbon emissions. The energy structure had seldom impacted on carbon emissions. The energy intensity obviously inhibited carbon emissions. The best optimal projection direction of each index in the next six years remained stable. Finally, this paper proposed the policy implications.

This paper provides an insight into the current state and the future changes in carbon emissions.

This paper aims at examining the co-movement dependent regime and causality relationships between conventional and Islamic returns for emerging, frontier and developed markets from November 2008 to August 2020.

First, the authors used the Markov-switching autoregression (MS–AR) model to capture the regime-switching behavior in the stock market returns. Second, the authors applied the Markov-switching regression and vector autoregression (MS-VAR) models in order to study, respectively, the co-movement and causality relationship between returns of conventional and Islamic indexes across market states.

Results show the presence of two different regimes for the three studied markets, namely, stability and crisis periods. Also, the authors found evidence of a co-movement relationship between the conventional and Islamic indexes for the three studied markets whatever the regime. For the Granger causality, it is proved only for emerging and developed markets and only during the stability regime. Finally, the authors conclude that Islamic indexes can act as diversifiers, or safe-haven assets are not strongly supported.

This paper is the first study that examines the co-movement and the causal relationship between conventional and Islamic indexes not only across different financial markets' regimes but also during the COVID-19 period. The findings may help investors in making educated decisions about whether or not to add Islamic indexes to their portfolios especially during the recent outbreak.

This paper evaluates an alternative queuing concept for marine container terminals that utilize a truck appointment system (TAS). Instead of having all lanes providing service to trucks with appointments, this study considers the case where walk-in lanes are provided to serve those trucks with no appointments or trucks with appointments but arrived late due to traffic congestion.

To enable the analysis of the proposed alternative queuing strategy, the queuing system is shown mathematically to be stationary. Due to the complexity of the model, a discrete event simulation (DES) model is used to obtain the average waiting number of trucks per lane for both types of service lanes: TAS-lanes and walk-in lanes.

The numerical experiment results indicated that the considered queuing strategy is most beneficial when the utilization of the TAS lanes is expected to be much higher than that of the walk-in lanes.

The novelty of this study is that it examines the scenario where trucks with appointments switch to the walk-in lanes upon arrival if the TAS-lane server is occupied and the walk-in lane server is not occupied. This queuing strategy/policy could reduce the average waiting time of trucks at marine container terminals. Approximation equations are provided to assist practitioners calculate the average truck queue length and the average truck queuing time for this type of queuing system.

This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.

The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.

This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.

One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.

This paper aims to investigate how oil price uncertainty affects real gross domestic product (GDP) and industrial production in eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC).

In the research process, the authors use the Bayesian method of inference for the two applied methodologies – Markov switching generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model and quantile regression.

The results clearly indicate that oil price uncertainty has a low effect on output in moderate market conditions in the selected countries. On the other hand, in the phases of contraction and expansion, which are portrayed by the tail quantiles, the authors find negative and positive Bayesian quantile parameters, which are relatively high in magnitude. This implies that in periods of deep economic crises, an increase in the oil price uncertainty reduces output, amplifying in this way recession pressures in the economy. Contrary, when the economy is in expansion, oil price uncertainty has no influence on the output. The probable reason lies in the fact that the negative effect of oil volatility is not strong enough in the expansion phase to overpower all other positive developments which characterize a growing economy. Also, evidence suggests that increased oil uncertainty has a more negative effect on industrial production than on real GDP, whereas industrial share in GDP plays an important role in how strong some CEECs are impacted by oil uncertainty.

This paper is the first one that investigates the spillover effect from oil uncertainty to output in CEEC.