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1 – 10 of 131The move came a day after he appeared at the National Assembly to defend himself against impeachment, with numbers in the legislature suggesting he was likely to fail. Fresh…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB279192
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Ikhlaas Gurrib, Firuz Kamalov, Olga Starkova, Elgilani Eltahir Elshareif and Davide Contu
This paper aims to investigate the role of price-based information from major cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, equity markets and key commodities in predicting the next-minute…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the role of price-based information from major cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, equity markets and key commodities in predicting the next-minute Bitcoin (BTC) price. This study answers the following research questions: What is the best sparse regression model to predict the next-minute price of BTC? What are the key drivers of the BTC price in high-frequency trading?
Design/methodology/approach
Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and Ridge regressions are adopted using minute-based open-high-low-close prices, volume and trade count for eight major cryptos, global stock market indices, foreign currency pairs, crude oil and gold price information for February 2020–March 2021. This study also examines whether there was any significant break and how the accuracy of the selected models was impacted.
Findings
Findings suggest that Ridge regression is the most effective model for predicting next-minute BTC prices based on BTC-related covariates such as BTC-open, BTC-high and BTC-low, with a moderate amount of regularization. While BTC-based covariates BTC-open and BTC-low were most significant in predicting BTC closing prices during stable periods, BTC-open and BTC-high were most important during volatile periods. Overall findings suggest that BTC’s price information is the most helpful to predict its next-minute closing price after considering various other asset classes’ price information.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the covariates of major cryptocurrencies and predict the next-minute BTC crypto price, with a focus on both crypto-asset and cross-market information.
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ECUADOR: Lasso action will prompt political turbulence
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES279153
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Ajit Kumar and A.K. Ghosh
The purpose of this study is to estimate aerodynamic parameters using regularized regression-based methods.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to estimate aerodynamic parameters using regularized regression-based methods.
Design/methodology/approach
Regularized regression methods used are LASSO, ridge and elastic net.
Findings
A viable option of aerodynamic parameter estimation from regularized regression-based methods is found.
Practical implications
Efficacy of the methods is examined on flight test data.
Originality/value
This study provides regularized regression-based methods for aerodynamic parameter estimation from the flight test data.
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ECUADOR: Lasso critics will focus on election success
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES279377
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
Topical
Lucie Maruejols, Hanjie Wang, Qiran Zhao, Yunli Bai and Linxiu Zhang
Despite rising incomes and reduction of extreme poverty, the feeling of being poor remains widespread. Support programs can improve well-being, but they first require identifying…
Abstract
Purpose
Despite rising incomes and reduction of extreme poverty, the feeling of being poor remains widespread. Support programs can improve well-being, but they first require identifying who are the households that judge their income is insufficient to meet their basic needs, and what factors are associated with subjective poverty.
Design/methodology/approach
Households report the income level they judge is sufficient to make ends meet. Then, they are classified as being subjectively poor if their own monetary income is inferior to the level they indicated. Second, the study compares the performance of three machine learning algorithms, the random forest, support vector machines and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, applied to a set of socioeconomic variables to predict subjective poverty status.
Findings
The random forest generates 85.29% of correct predictions using a range of income and non-income predictors, closely followed by the other two techniques. For the middle-income group, the LASSO regression outperforms random forest. Subjective poverty is mostly associated with monetary income for low-income households. However, a combination of low income, low endowment (land, consumption assets) and unusual large expenditure (medical, gifts) constitutes the key predictors of feeling poor for the middle-income households.
Practical implications
To reduce the feeling of poverty, policy intervention should continue to focus on increasing incomes. However, improvements in nonincome domains such as health expenditure, education and family demographics can also relieve the feeling of income inadequacy. Methodologically, better performance of either algorithm depends on the data at hand.
Originality/value
For the first time, the authors show that prediction techniques are reliable to identify subjective poverty prevalence, with example from rural China. The analysis offers specific attention to the modest-income households, who may feel poor but not be identified as such by objective poverty lines, and is relevant when policy-makers seek to address the “next step” after ending extreme poverty. Prediction performance and mechanisms for three machine learning algorithms are compared.
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Juho Park, Junghwan Cho, Alex C. Gang, Hyun-Woo Lee and Paul M. Pedersen
This study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. Furthermore, by predicting spectators for each league (American League and National League) and division in MLB, the authors will identify the specific factors that increase accuracy, discuss them and provide implications for marketing strategies for academics and practitioners in sport.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used six years of daily MLB game data (2014–2019). All data were collected as predictors, such as game performance, weather and unemployment rate. Also, the attendance rate was obtained as an observation variable. The Random Forest, Lasso regression models and XGBoost were used to build the prediction model, and the analysis was conducted using Python 3.7.
Findings
The RMSE value was 0.14, and the R2 was 0.62 as a consequence of fine-tuning the tuning parameters of the XGBoost model, which had the best performance in forecasting the attendance rate. The most influential variables in the model are “Rank” of 0.247 and “Day of the week”, “Home team” and “Day/Night game” were shown as influential variables in order. The result was shown that the “Unemployment rate”, as a macroeconomic factor, has a value of 0.06 and weather factors were a total value of 0.147.
Originality/value
This research highlights unemployment rate as a determinant affecting MLB game attendance rates. Beyond contextual elements such as climate, the findings of this study underscore the significance of economic factors, particularly unemployment rates, necessitating further investigation into these factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of game attendance.
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Suman Chhabri, Krishnendu Hazra, Amitava Choudhury, Arijit Sinha and Manojit Ghosh
Because of the mechanical properties of aluminium (Al), an accurate prediction of its properties has been challenging. Researchers are seeking reliable models for predicting the…
Abstract
Purpose
Because of the mechanical properties of aluminium (Al), an accurate prediction of its properties has been challenging. Researchers are seeking reliable models for predicting the mechanical strength of Al alloys owing to the continuous emergence of new Al alloys and their applications. There has been widespread use of empirical and statistical models for the prediction of different mechanical properties of Al and Al alloy, such as linear and nonlinear regression. Nevertheless, the development of these models requires laborious experimental work, and they may not produce accurate results depending on the relationship between the Al properties, mix of other compositions and curing conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
Numerous machine learning (ML) models have been proposed as alternative approaches for predicting the strengths of Al and its alloys. The hardness of Al alloys has been predicted by implementing various ML algorithms, such as linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and artificial neural network (ANN). This investigation critically analysed and discussed the application and performance of models generated by linear regression, ridge regression, lasso regression and ANN algorithms using different mechanical properties as training parameters.
Findings
Considering the definition of the problem, linear regression has been found to be the most suitable algorithm in predicting the hardness values of AA7XXX alloys as the model generated by it best fits the data set.
Originality/value
The work presented in this paper is original and not submitted anywhere else.
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Abhishek Poddar, Sangita Choudhary, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Arun Kumar Misra
The current study aims to analyze the linkage among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in an interconnected bank network system.
Abstract
Purpose
The current study aims to analyze the linkage among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in an interconnected bank network system.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs the Lerner index to estimate bank power; Granger non-causality for estimating competition, liquidity and loan price network structure; principal component for developing competition network index, liquidity network index and price network index; and panel VAR and LASSO-VAR for analyzing the dynamics of interactive network effect. Current work considers 33 Indian banks, and the duration of the study is from 2010 to 2020.
Findings
Network structures are concentrated during the economic upcycle and dispersed during the economic downcycle. A significant interaction among bank competition, liquidity and loan price networks exists in the Indian banking system.
Practical implications
The study meaningfully contributes to the existing literature by adding new insights concerning the interrelationship between bank competition, loan price and bank liquidity networks. While enhancing competition in the banking system, the regulator should also pay attention toward making liquidity provisions. The interactive network framework provides direction to the regulator to formulate appropriate policies for managing competition and liquidity while ensuring the solvency and stability of the banking system.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the limited literature concerning interactive relationship among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in the Indian banks.
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The purpose of the present study was to improve the fit of women’s bifurcated garments by developing an equation that can predict the crotch length accurately by using a few basic…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the present study was to improve the fit of women’s bifurcated garments by developing an equation that can predict the crotch length accurately by using a few basic body measurements. This equation could provide a simple mass-customization approach to the design of bifurcated garments.
Design/methodology/approach
Demographic characteristics and easy-to-record body measurements available in the size USA database were used to predict the crotch length. Different methodologies including best subset regression, lasso regression and principal components regression were experimented with to identify the most important predictor variables and establish a relationship between the significant predictors and crotch length.
Findings
The lasso regression model provided the highest accuracy, required only five body dimensions and dealt with multicollinearity. The preliminary pattern preparation and garment fit tests indicated that by utilizing the proposed equation, patterns of customized garments could be successfully altered to match the crotch length of the customer, thereby, improving the precision and efficiency of the pattern making process.
Originality/value
Crotch length is a crucial measurement as it determines bifurcated garment comfort as well as aesthetic fit. The crotch length is usually estimated arbitrarily based on non-scientific methods while drafting patterns, and this increases the likelihood of dissatisfaction with the fit of the lower-body garments. The present study suggested an algorithm that could predict crotch length with 90.53% accuracy using the body dimensions height, hips, waist height, knee height and arm length.
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