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Article
Publication date: 2 August 2011

Jabir Ali and Kriti Bardhan Gupta

In line with the ongoing global and domestic reforms in agriculture and allied sectors, the Indian Government is reducing its direct market intervention and encouraging private…

2282

Abstract

Purpose

In line with the ongoing global and domestic reforms in agriculture and allied sectors, the Indian Government is reducing its direct market intervention and encouraging private participation based on market forces. This has led to increased exposure of agricultural produce to price and other market risks, which consequently emphasize the importance of futures markets for price discovery and price risk management. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of agricultural commodity markets by assessing the relationships between futures prices and spot market prices of major agricultural commodities in India.

Design/methodology/approach

The efficiency of the futures market for 12 agricultural commodities, traded at one of the largest commodity exchanges of India, i.e. National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd, has been explored by using Johansen's cointegration analysis and Granger causality tests. Unit root test procedures such as Augmented Dickey‐Fuller and non‐parametric Phillips‐Perron were initially applied to examine whether futures and spot prices are stationary or not. The hypothesis, that futures prices are unbiased predictors of spot prices has been tested using econometric software package.

Findings

Results show that cointegration exists significantly in futures and spot prices for all the selected agricultural commodities except for wheat and rice. This suggest that there is a long‐term relationship between futures and spot prices for most of the agricultural commodities like maize, chickpea, black lentil, pepper, castor seed, soybean and sugar. The causality test further distinguishes and categorizes the commodities based on direction of relationship between futures and spot prices. The analysis of short‐term relationship by causality test indicates that futures markets have stronger ability to predict subsequent spot prices for chickpea, castor seed, soybean and sugar as compared to maize, black lentil and pepper, where bi‐directional relationships exist in the short run.

Practical implications

The results of this study are useful for various stakeholders active in agricultural commodities markets such as producers, traders, commission agents, commodity exchange participants, regulators and policy makers.

Originality/value

There are very few studies that have explored the efficiency of the commodity futures market in India in a detailed manner, especially at individual commodity level.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 71 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 22 February 2013

K.B. Saji

903

Abstract

Details

Journal of Product & Brand Management, vol. 22 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1061-0421

Book part
Publication date: 23 May 2024

Kriti Arya and Richa Chauhan

This chapter investigates pandemic impact in a variety of industries, including food, travel, education and pharmaceuticals, considering elements such as isolation, emotions and…

Abstract

This chapter investigates pandemic impact in a variety of industries, including food, travel, education and pharmaceuticals, considering elements such as isolation, emotions and social influences, which can lead to panic buying. The goal of this research is to ascertain how COVID-19 influences the buying decisions of customers. Additionally, the study aims to identify consumer consumption trends for a spectrum of products and services, including fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs), entertainment, pharmaceuticals, travel and tourism. A comprehensive review of different research papers is done to conclude. The papers considered are from 2020 to 2022. Different keywords are used to search the relevant papers such as ‘pandemic’, ‘COVID-19’, ‘behaviour’, ‘impulsive’, etc. TCCM framework has been applied while reviewing the articles. During the isolation, consumer behaviour moved to panic buying and stockpiling, favouring organic basics, and encouraging e-commerce, as well as economic nationalism favouring made-in-India products. This study helps in knowing the reasons for change in consumers' behaviour for different products and services due to unforeseeable situations like COVID-19 and can find possible ways to deal with them. Business owners learn about changing consumer purchasing behaviours and how to modify products. The government can change policies to improve medical tourism and social protection.

Details

Navigating the Digital Landscape
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83549-272-7

Keywords

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