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North Korea may goad South Korea into limited conflict

Location:

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

Pyongyang claims to have tested a new nuclear-capable underwater drone -- Seoul is sceptical -- and North Korea’s foreign minister has visited Moscow. South Korean President Yoon…

Abductions will impede Tokyo-Pyongyang ties

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NORTH KOREA/JAPAN

Any such rapprochement would be two-edged: suggesting a less acerbic Pyongyang, but also altering delicate alliance dynamics. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reportedly did…

Rupture of accord will raise Seoul-Pyongyang tensions

Location:

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

An unrelated ballistic missile test shortly afterwards failed. Seoul responded by partially suspending September 2018’s North-South military agreement -- whereupon Pyongyang…

Pyongyang’s Beijing and Moscow ties will be complex

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NORTH KOREA/CHINA/RUSSIA

The PoE has since 2009 reported regularly on North Korea’s violations of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. Beijing and Moscow are resisting an ineffective UN sanctions…

Hamas conflict will heighten vigilance in Seoul

Location:

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

These include border surveillance, human intelligence and Pyongyang-Hamas links. Joint live-fire exercises with US forces on October 25-27 were billed as targeting “large-scale…

Prospects for East Asia (ex-China) in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Inflation remains a problem, though there has been a tourism surge. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s approval ratings remain low, with the opposition winning a key…

Seoul-Havana relations will hurt Pyongyang

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SOUTH KOREA/CUBA

South Korea’s business ties with Cuba have improved in recent decades, while Havana-Pyongyang relations have long been uneasy. Cuba’s decision came amid North Korea’s increasingly…

Russia's ties with North Korea will grow stronger

Location:

RUSSIA

Russian technology has advanced North Korea's satellite development. Russia is strengthening economic, diplomatic and cultural ties with North Korea, although UN sanctions are an…

US allies will worry about Trump's Asia policies

Location:

UNITED STATES

Democrats and Republicans largely share the assessment that China poses the greatest challenge to US interests globally. The Biden administration retained Trump’s strong tariff…

Pyongyang’s rising cyberthreats are hard to combat

Location:

NORTH KOREA

On November 30 the same trio plus Australia announced coordinated sanctions, in response to Pyongyang’s launch on November 21 of a military reconnaissance satellite. For the first…