Seoul-Havana relations will hurt Pyongyang

Significance

South Korea’s business ties with Cuba have improved in recent decades, while Havana-Pyongyang relations have long been uneasy. Cuba’s decision came amid North Korea’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric and worsening peninsular security. Pyongyang still has some Latin American allies, even as Seoul’s diplomacy in the region has been boosted.

Impacts

• Pyongyang is closing various embassies globally and will focus on close allies and prospects, not maximising reach.
• Western embassies in Pyongyang that closed due to COVID-19 are readying to reopen, suggesting the regime will be open to foreign engagement.
• South Korean firms in sectors including manufacturing, electronics, medicine and biotechnology will expand trade and investment in Cuba.