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The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of product market competition on the oil uncertainty–investment relation.

The authors use firm-level financial data from the COMPUSTAT database, competition proxies from Hoberg and Phillips (2016) and macroeconomic data on crude oil price uncertainty. Corporate investment is measured as capital expenditure scaled by total assets or as the annual change in (net) total fixed assets plus depreciation. Since our panel data covers a short period (22 years) and the regressions include a combination of a lagged dependent variable and firm fixed effects, the authors apply Blundell and Bond’s (1998) GMM system when regressing corporate investment on the interaction between oil uncertainty and competition.

Consistent with the theories in the irreversible investment literature, the authors first show that investments are negatively related to oil uncertainty. Second, they show that firms in competitive industries decrease their investments in response to heightened uncertainty by a higher degree than firms in concentrated industries, suggesting that competition can exacerbate negative investment outcomes when success is uncertain. The authors also examine how competition relates to investment asymmetric reactions to positive and negative oil price return volatilities and find a stronger negative relationships between competition and investment-positive oil price volatility, indicating that increasing the probability of a negative outcome due to uncertainty leads firms to reduce investment to a larger extent.

The findings provide useful insights to guide corporate investment decisions under oil price change uncertainty. In particular, if firms can wait for the resolution of uncertainty before deciding to pursue irreversible investment in a competitive market, they can avoid potentially large losses by foregoing investment when the outcomes are unfavorable. This is because competition brings a greater uncertainty to firm performance if the investment outcome is poor, as firms in competitive industries share a large proportion of industry-wide profits with rivals and, thus, competition could erode profit margins and increases the likelihood of being driven out of the market. Hence, firms in competitive markets should balance between strategic preemptive motives and waiting for the resolution of uncertainty before deciding to pursue investment.

This study is the first to examine the effect of competition on the relationship between investment and oil price uncertainty. Moreover, it is the first to examine the effect of competition on the asymmetric response of investment to oil price uncertainty emanating from positive and negative changes in oil price.

Performance of firms in network industries depends much on the creation of standards around their technologies, products, or services. Establishing standards requires committing large, irreversible, upfront investment while demand remains uncertain. This paper focuses on the real options involved in this investment problem. The conventional real options literature recognizes the waiting-to-invest option where firms could avoid regret by waiting until at least some of the uncertainty is resolved. However, early commitment of network investment has vital strategic effects on shaping the expectations of potential users and inducing them to adopt the standard, thus creating a strategic growth option. We develop a simple model to explore the tradeoff between this strategic growth option and the waiting-to-invest option. We solve for the optimal investment rules and find that for high uncertainty, the strategic growth option often dominates the waiting-to-invest option and reduces the investment threshold. Furthermore, the intensity of network effect enhances the strategic growth option. Our results have important implications to the strategies of firms in technology industries.

This study aims to generalize the following result of McDonald and Siegel (1986) on optimal investment: it is optimal for an investor to invest when project cash flows exceed a certain threshold. This study presents other results that refine or extend this one by integrating timing flexibility and changes in cash flows with time-varying transition probabilities for regime switching. This study emphasizes that optimal thresholds are either overvalued or undervalued in the absence of time-varying transition probabilities. Accordingly, the stochastic nature of transition probabilities has important implications to the search for optimal timing of investment.

This paper examines the application of real option theory to sequential investment decision-making. In an effort to contribute to the development of criteria that discriminate between investments that confer growth options from those that confer deferral options, we introduce a conceptual model that explains technological adoption as a sequence of embedded options. Upon the introduction of each successive technological generation, a firm may either defer investment and wait for the arrival of a future generation or invest immediately to obtain experience that provides a claim on adoption of subsequent generations. We propose that deferral and growth option value is dependent on the magnitude, frequency, and uncertainty of inter-generational change, and the nature of rivalry.

The objective of this paper is threefold. First, it aims to empirically study whether firm-specific/idiosyncratic uncertainty, macroeconomic/aggregate uncertainty and political uncertainty have an adverse influence on firms' investment decisions in Pakistan. After establishing this, it scrutinizes whether the uncertainty effects on investment are different for firms of different sizes. Finally, it investigates whether any heterogeneity exists in the uncertainty impacts across different industries.

The empirical analysis is based on an unbalanced panel data of 468 nonfinancial firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) during the period 2000–2018. Departing from the literature, the paper builds a time-varying composite volatility/uncertainty index based on the principal component analysis (PCA) by utilizing the constructed volatility series for sales, cash flows and return on assets to gauge firm-specific uncertainty for each firm included in the analysis. Likewise, the paper develops a PCA-based composite index for macroeconomic uncertainty by using the conditional variance series of consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPI), the interest rate and the exchange rate obtained by estimating the (generalized) autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic, (G)ARCH, models. Finally, political uncertainty is measured by political risk components maintained by the Political Risk Services Group. The empirical framework of the paper augments the standard investment equation by incorporating all three types of uncertainty. Firms are grouped into small, medium and large categories based on firms' total assets and the size indicators are generated. Next, the indicators are multiplied by each uncertainty measure to quantify the differential effects of uncertainty across firm size. Firms are also differentiated by sectors to explore the sector-based asymmetries in the uncertainty effects. The “robust two-step system generalized method of moments (2SYS GMM) (dynamic panel data) estimator” is applied to estimate the empirical models.

The results provide robust and strong evidence of the detrimental influence of all three types of uncertainty on investment. Yet, it is observed that the strength of the influence considerably varies across uncertainty types. In particular, compared to firm-specific uncertainty, both macroeconomic and political uncertainties have more unfavorable effects. The analysis also reveals that the effects of all three types of uncertainty are quite different at small, medium and large firms. Specifically, it is observed that although the investment of all firms is influenced adversely by magnified uncertainty, the adverse effects of all three kinds of uncertainty are quite stronger at small firms than medium and large firms. These findings support the phenomenon of size-based asymmetries in the effects of uncertainty on investment. The results also provide evidence that either type of uncertainty quite differently affects the investment policy of firms in different sectors.

The findings help different stakeholders to know how different types of uncertainty differently affect corporate firms' investments. Further, they suggest that firm size has a vital role in ascertaining the adverse effects of uncertainty on investment. The paper identifies to which type of uncertainty investors and policymakers should care more about and to which types of firms and industries they should concern more during volatile times. Firms should have more fixed assets and expand their size to mitigate the detrimental effects on investment of internal and external uncertainties. The government should enhance the political stability to induce firms for a higher level of investment, which, in turn, will result in higher growth of the economy.

The originality of the paper is credited to four aspects. First, unlike most previous studies that have utilized a single volatility measure, this paper constructs composite uncertainty indices based on the weights determined by the PCA. Second, it examines the effect of political uncertainty over and above the effects of idiosyncratic and aggregate (macroeconomic uncertainty) for an emerging economy. Third, and most important, it provides first-hand empirical evidence on the role of firm size in establishing the asymmetric effects of uncertainty on investment. Finally, it provides evidence on the industry-based heterogeneity in the uncertainty effects.

The application of real options theory to international strategy has surged in recent years. However, it is still a relatively new and loosely defined field, and there are several constraints on practical applications of this powerful theory. To move forward this field, the paper first provides a systematic analysis of theoretical and empirical contributions of real options theory to three critical issues in international strategy: (1) valuing multinational networks, (2) assessing market entry modes, and (3) evaluating market entry timing. The paper further suggests that future studies can focus on a refined treatment of uncertainty and the development of a dynamic theory in international strategy. Five testable propositions are developed in these directions.

We discuss recent developments in real options theory and its applications to strategic management research, examine the potential difficulties in implementing real options in theory and practice, and propose several areas for future research. Our review shows that real options theory has provided substantial insights into investment and exit decisions as well as into the choice of investment modes. In addition, extant research studies have contributed significantly to our understanding of whether and how organizations can benefit from real options. Future research that addresses difficulties in applications will further advance both real options theory and practice in strategic management. We call for future generations of research to enhance the impact of real options as an emerging dominant conceptual lens in strategic management.

Previous studies have mostly discussed the impact of environmental policy on enterprise innovation, but the discussion on how turbulence in environmental policy may affect firms' green innovation has been insufficient. This paper explores the effect of environmental policy uncertainty on corporate green innovation in the turnover of environmental protection officials (EPOT) context.

The authors manually collected the data on the EPOT of 280 Chinese prefecture-level cities, and used the Poisson regression model to conduct empirical analyses based on the panel data of 1472 Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2017.

The results show that environmental policy uncertainty leads firms to reduce their green patent applications only for green invention patent applications. Such an effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). In addition, when the new directors of the Ecology and Environmental Bureau take office through promotions or are no more than 55 years old, the negative effect is more obvious, but there is no significant difference regardless of whether new directors have worked in environmental protection departments.

First, this paper supplements the research on the antecedents of corporate green innovation from the perspective of environmental policy uncertainty and extends the applications of real options theory. Second, this paper expands the research on the government–business relationship from the EPOT perspective.

The purpose of this research is to examine the way uncertainty plays a role in built land prices. This paper provides basic real option pricing models of land prices on the demand side in central Tokyo. The model in this research analyzes micro land prices covering individual lot data provided by the Land Price Index. Since land prices are determined by both macro economic environment and micro lot‐specific attributes, this paper utilizes both time‐series economic data and cross‐sectional lot‐specific data. The model incorporates both time‐series (macro) and cross‐sectional (micro) data including uncertainty terms. In addition to the total uncertainty in asset prices over years, this research also gives some ideas of cross‐sectional uncertainty in land price variations by utilizing cross‐sectional amenity variables. These cross‐sectional and time‐series variables including the two uncertainty variables are arithmetically combined and the OLS method is conducted. The data set consists of 4,368 land price data from 1985 through 2000. The results from the option‐based models favor the application of the real option theory in land prices. The total uncertainty with respect to built asset return has a substantial effect on increasing land prices, which implies that an increase in uncertainty leads to an increase in land prices.