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This paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks and the degree of synchronization in the impulse responses of output, inflation and trade to a one standard deviation shock to non-oil commodities price index and exchange rates within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990q1 to 2020q1.

This paper uses the structural vector autoregressive model to isolate the underlying structural shocks and compares them with the West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries.

Findings from the study suggest that correlations of underlying structural shocks are more profound in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. Impulse responses of output to price and exchange rate shocks are more symmetric in the WAEMU than in the WAMZ. However, impulse responses of inflation to price and exchange rate shocks are symmetric in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU and responses of trade in both sub-groups are not uniform.

The paper concludes that the WAMZ does not constitute an Optimum Currency Area concerning the correlations of the structural shocks and output. However, it has achieved convergence in inflation and there are adequate adjustment mechanisms to shocks in the WAMZ than in the WAEMU. Therefore, the WAMZ may not suffer from joining the monetary union. Thus, economic Community of West African States may take steps to roll out the monetary union.

The paper examines correlations of the underlying structural shocks, impulse responses of output and inflation to shocks to commodities price and exchange rates in the WAMZ and compares them with the WAEMU.

Inflation expectations are an important part of the transmission mechanism of the inflation targeting regime. As such, central bankers must study the inflation expectations of economic agents to anchor them close to the level of the inflation target. However, economic agents are affected by the past and current macroeconomic situation when they form their expectations concerning future inflation. Using survey data on inflation expectations in Czechia, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of Czech analysts' and managers' inflation expectations. We find that both actual and past inflation have a substantial impact on inflation expectations of the agents surveyed. We also identify backward-looking behaviour among these agents: persistence in inflation expectations of up to two quarters was detected. Moreover, financial analysts formed inflation expectations more in line with economic theory, while company managers evinced expectations similar to those of consumers.

The aim of this study is to examine the nature and determinants of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Taiwan) over the period 1991–2021.

Unit root tests, the dynamic conditional correlation-Glosten Jagannathan and Runkle-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (DCC-GJR-GARCH), pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effects models are employed for the analysis.

The empirical results show that the DCC between each pair of sample countries is less than 0.5, indicating weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. Also, the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific stock markets is positive and low, implying low level of integration. The correlation between India and China stock markets is found to be the highest, implying significant level of integration. The main reason for it would be strong economic linkages and bilateral trade relationship between India and China. Moreover, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate (IR), consumer price index (CPI)-inflation and money supply (MS) differentials are the major driver of stock market integration between India and other Asia–Pacific countries.

The findings of the study have important implications for investors, portfolio managers and policymakers. It is found that the DCC between India and other Asia–Pacific countries (considered in the study) except China is low, which indicates weak ties between the pairs of sample countries. This implies that the Indian stock market provides good investment opportunities for foreign investors. Also, investors and portfolio managers can attain more diversified benefits and can minimize country risk by investing across Asia–Pacific countries. Further, knowledge about the factors that integrate the Indian stock market with the other Asia–Pacific stock markets will help policymakers frame suitable economic and financial stabilization policies.

This study contributes to the extant literature: first, by examining the linkages of Indian stock market with other Asia–Pacific countries; second, although previous studies confirmed the existence of linkages among the various stock markets, few researchers pay attention to the factors driving the process of stock market integration. This study provides additional evidence by examining the significant macroeconomic factors driving the process of such integration in the Asia–Pacific region considered under the study.

With the growth of income at the global level, the World Bank data show that there are rising levels of income disparity across countries, groups, regions and within the countries. This fact otherwise hints at the inter-country divergence in incomes, particularly between the developed and developing countries of the world. This chapter, therefore, attempts to examine the convergence or divergence in credit, GDP and HDI across the 10 selected countries for the period of 1990–2019 applying the neoclassical growth approach and the time series approach. The results of the exercise in line with the neoclassical theories on absolute convergence and sigma convergence show that the countries are unquestionably converging in GDP and HDI with mixed results in case of credit. The results of convergence in GDP and HDI in all the countries and their developed and developing counterparts provide a possible explanation as to why the cross countries’ income inequalities as well as world inequality in income and development are reducing over time. On the other hand, the results of the time series approach display that credit and HDI are converging in both absolute and conditional terms but the countries are converging in conditional terms only for GDP. Thus, the claims of the World Bank are not valid for the selected countries in the chapter, rather, they can be verified by taking other countries and groups into consideration.

In 1979, Galbraith wrote a manuscript titled “The Social Consequences of Inflation and Unemployment and Their Remedies.” The manuscript was found in the John Kenneth Galbraith Personal Papers at the John F. Kennedy Library. The reasons for Galbraith to write the article might appear at first glance to be purely contextual. At the macroeconomic level, the United States was experiencing stagflation, a situation unseen since 1945, resulting in double-digit inflation rates and high unemployment. A policy debate was going on about the Phillips curve and whether there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Milton Friedman challenged the Keynesian analyses of the Phillips curve in the mid-1960s (Friedman, 1977). Galbraith’s 16-page draft manuscript provides us an incisive summary of Galbraith’s views about the causes of stagflation and what can be done about it. He provides us with an alternative to the neoclassical synthesis of Samuelson and Solow and the neoliberal thinking of Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek.

This paper aims to contribute to the analysis concerning how inflation forecasts from different economic agents (professional forecasters and consumers) lead to varying levels of central bank credibility and how it affects the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.

Based on the Brazilian economy data from June 2007 to May 2022, the authors provide evidence that is useful for search mechanisms that improve the conduct of monetary policy through the management of inflation expectations. The authors perform several ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments regressions inspired by the Taylor rule principle. In brief, the benchmark model considers that the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations respond to departures of inflation expectations to the target (a proxy for central bank credibility) and the level of economic activity.

The main result of the analysis is that inflation expectations from professional forecasters and consumers imply different perceptions of central bank credibility that affect the monetary policy interest rate and expectations for horizons until one year ahead.

The novelty that the authors bring from the analysis is that the authors calculate central bank credibility by taking into account the “public beliefs” of different economic agents. Furthermore, the authors analyze the effect of central bank credibility from professional forecasters and consumers on the monetary policy interest rate and its expectations.

While poverty alleviation is the first core goal of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and microfinance institutions (MFIs) are considered important instruments for poverty alleviation in developing countries as they provide credit access to the poor, there is surprisingly little evidence of the drivers of the lending behavior of microfinance institutions. Hence, the purpose of this study is to identify the factors that influence the credit growth of MFIs in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

The study relies on unbalanced panel dataset of 130 MFIs operating across 31 countries in SSA during the period 2004–2014 constituting 546 useable observations. The study uses the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) Windmeijer bias-corrected standard errors to estimate the models.

The results confirm that while capitalization, liquidity and size are positively associated with credit growth, profitability negatively impacts credit growth; whereas, other MFI specific factors namely portfolio quality, deposit growth and nondeposit borrowing growth have little direct effects on MFI credit growth. The results also show that MFI credit growth is pro-cyclical but negatively related to GDP per capita consistent with the theory of convergence. On the other hand, inflation and employment are not important covariates in the credit growth of MFIs.

The findings suggest that if MFIs improve their liquidity and size by attracting more deposits and nondeposit borrowings, among others, they can increase credit access to the poor. Moreover, since the lending behavior of MFIs is not resilient to GDP shocks, different measures are needed to increase the financial stability of the microfinance industry. In this respect, since MFI capitalization is positively associated with credit growth and MFI credit growth is pro-cyclical, the findings provide useful insights to central banks/regulatory authorities and the Basel Committee as to the need for a counter-cyclical capital buffer requirement in the microfinance industry.

The study is the first comprehensive study to examine the drivers of MFI lending behavior as an extension to lending behavior models from the banking industry.

The authors explore how did the COVID shock hit European firms at the upper quantiles (high-growth superstars) and the lower quantiles (rapidly declining firms).

The authors analyze the European Investment Bank Investment Survey (2016–2020). This exploratory paper applies graphical techniques and quantile regression to evaluate the COVID shock along the growth rates distribution.

Regarding growth of sales and growth of value added, COVID had a negative effect on growth across the growth rates distribution. The negative COVID effect is larger at the lower quantiles. Employment growth shows no effect for many firms that have zero employment growth, but at the extreme quantiles, the authors can observe that some declining firms were adversely affected by COVID. For labour productivity growth, the COVID effect is small. Analysis of subsamples, and quantile regressions with interaction terms, emphasize that firms receiving policy support were relatively strongly affected by COVID, consistent with interpretations that COVID policy support was reaching the intended recipients. Finally, fully digitalized firms may have been somewhat shielded from the harmful effects of COVID.

First, previous studies have focused on the average effect of COVID on the growth performance. Our research contributes to understanding how the COVID shock affected the entire growth rates distribution, ranging to high-growth firms and declining firms. Second, governments devoted financial support to firms. Our analysis explores if COVID policy support was given to companies more affected by this shock. Third, previous digitalization may have boosted resilience by shielding firms from COVID’s harmful effects on firm growth.