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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2012

Hassan Gholipour Fereidouni

In recent years, housing prices and rents have recorded impressive growth in Iran. Several observers believe that real estate agents have had a significant effect on this…

1427

Abstract

Purpose

In recent years, housing prices and rents have recorded impressive growth in Iran. Several observers believe that real estate agents have had a significant effect on this phenomenon. However, some do not agree with this viewpoint and argue that the role of real estate agents is not that much and housing prices and rents are affected by macroeconomic factors. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether real estate agents can influence housing prices and rents across provinces of Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying panel data technique, this paper uses observations from 28 provinces of Iran covering 2000 and 2003 to examine the role of real estate agents on housing prices and rents.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that the increased number of real estate agents and their activities positively significantly stimulate housing prices and rents.

Research limitations/implications

To the author's knowledge, most studies in this area cover the US and European real estate markets. Since findings for developed countries might not be directly transferable to emerging market economies such as Iran, more work is necessary to obtain a clearer picture of the role of real estate agents on housing prices and rents in emerging economies.

Originality/value

Although there has been a series of cross‐sectional studies published in this area, few empirical works have examined the effects of real estate agents on housing prices and rents by applying panel data set. The paper begins to fill this gap by analyzing a data sample of 28 provinces of Iran covering 2000 and 2003.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2006

Ming‐Long Lee and R. Kelley Pace

The purpose of this paper is to provide additional evidence that housing prices significantly impact aggregate refinancing and thus directly influence mortgage termination.

1537

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide additional evidence that housing prices significantly impact aggregate refinancing and thus directly influence mortgage termination.

Design/methodology/approach

Regression analysis is applied to examine refinancing activity in US cities.

Findings

The evidence shows that positive appreciation in housing prices provides the borrower with positive incentives to refinance in response to the associated increased borrowing capacity when mortgage rates have declined. On the other hand, depreciation in housing prices may depress refinancing.

Research limitations/implications

Housing price movements, not only collateral constraints on refinancing but also the disincentive to engage in cash‐out refinancing caused by depreciation as well as the incentive for cash‐out refinancing brought by appreciation, should be included in modeling total termination risks of mortgage‐backed securities.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, this paper provides empirical support for both the incentive and the disincentive to engage in cash‐out refinancing produced by housing price changes, in addition to support for the traditional collateral constraint effect of housing prices on refinancing.

Details

Property Management, vol. 24 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Daniel Pakši and Aleš Melecký

In this chapter, we aim to analyze the housing market development in Czechia, in particular the development of housing prices over the last 25 years. We quantify and discuss three…

Abstract

In this chapter, we aim to analyze the housing market development in Czechia, in particular the development of housing prices over the last 25 years. We quantify and discuss three distinct periods of excessive growth of regional Czech housing prices, identified through the formation of large positive GAPs – (1) before the entrance of Czechia to the European Union (EU), (2) at the onset of the Global Financial Crisis GFC, (3) in 2021. In all these periods, we identify significant differences among regions. We find that GAPs above 15% may be considered an indication of unsustainable long-term housing price growth that will be followed by a correction.

We then employ fixed effect panel data model to determine the drivers of flat and house prices in 14 Czech regions. Our results show that wage growth, migration and crime rate are significant factors affecting the prices of both flats and houses. Nevertheless, the impact of GDP per capita and job market indicators differs between flats and houses. Moreover, we find that higher migration into the region increases the difference between the prices of houses and flats, while increasing GDP per capita growth and crime rate mitigate this difference significantly.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Czechia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-841-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 April 2024

Amanda Dian Widyasti Kusumawardani and Muhammad Halley Yudhistira

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the Odd-Even Road Rationing Policy (RRP) on housing prices in Jakarta, Indonesia. It aims to evaluate the net effect of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the Odd-Even Road Rationing Policy (RRP) on housing prices in Jakarta, Indonesia. It aims to evaluate the net effect of the RRP on housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the monocentric model and employs the difference-in-differences (DD) method. Annual neighborhood-level housing price data is analyzed to assess the impact of the RRP on housing prices. Additionally, propensity score matching is used to address potential biases resulting from non-random policy assignments.

Findings

The results demonstrate that houses located within the RRP-restricted area experience a decrease in price that is relative to those in the control group. The findings indicate a decrease in housing prices ranging from 7.59% to 14.7% within the RRP-restricted area. This suggests that the positive impacts resulting from the RRP have not fully compensated for the restricted accessibility experienced by individuals who have limited behavioral changes. The study also confirms the significance of commuting costs in individuals' location decisions, aligning with predictions from urban economics models.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by providing insights into the effects of a RRP on housing prices. It expands understanding beyond the immediate effects on traffic conditions and air pollution, which previous studies have primarily focused on. Furthermore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research will be the first conducted to identify the impacts of RRP on housing prices in Indonesia.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 May 2009

Onur Özsoy and Hasan Şahin

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically major factors that affect housing prices in Istanbul, Turkey using the classification and regression tree (CART) approach.

1416

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically major factors that affect housing prices in Istanbul, Turkey using the classification and regression tree (CART) approach.

Design/methodology/approach

The data set was collected from various internet pages of real estate agencies during June 2007. The CART approach was then applied to derive main results and to make implications with regard to the housing market in Istanbul, Turkey.

Findings

The CART results indicate that sizes, elavators, existance of security, existance of central heating units and existance of view are the most important variables crucially affecting housing prices in Istanbul. The average price of houses in Istanbul was found to be 373,372.36 New Turkish Liras. The average size of a house was 138.37 m2. The average age of houses is 15.07 years old with the average number of rooms being 3.11. The average number of baths is 1.43 and average number of toilets is 1.22. Only 5 percent of homes have storage space, 45 percent of homes have parking space, 64 percent of homes are heated with furnace, whereas only 29 percent of homes are used central heating system. Among the 31 variables employed in this study, it was concluded size, elavator, security, central heating unit and view are the most important factors that have impact on housing prices in housing market in Istanbul.

Practical implications

Future research and analysis of housing market in Istanbul and in Turkey can benefit from the method used in this study and findings derived from this research to come up with more general model(s) to include more houses in a wide range of regions in Turkey to analyze the determinants of housing prices in Turkey in general.

Originality/value

Examining housing prices using the CART model is relatively new in the field of housing economics. Additionally, this study is the first to use the CART model to analyze housing market in Istanbul and in Turkey and derive valuable housing policies to be used by the authorities.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2024

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain, Abdol Samad Nawi, Miguel Angel Esquivias and Anuar Husin

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition, this study will provide exposure to the integration of managerial skills by using both microeconomics and macroeconomics concepts and theories to aid decision-making in a business environment.

Design/methodology/approach

The research method comprised qualitative methodology of literature review, case study and quantitative methodology of multiple linear regression (MLR). In this case, seven microeconomics and macroeconomics factors which are believed to significantly affect house price index (HPI) are taken into consideration which includes gross domestic product, consumer price index (CPI), government tax and subsidy on housing, overnight policy rate, unemployment rate (UNEMP), the median income (INC) and cost of production index.

Findings

This research has resulted in three significant factors affecting HPI from MLR, which include CPI, UNEMP and INC where the increase of these factors will cause a high increment of HPI. The other four factors are not significant.

Originality/value

Malaysia has been facing the stagnancy in house market these recent years due to issues such as massive oversupply, impacting Malaysia’s economy specifically focusing on domestic direct investment. To avoid oversupply issues, the vitality of future house demand and pricing forecast should be comprehended by involved bodies for more effective planning for the house development industry. To make a better and bigger impact, this research is intended to analyse the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the HPI to better understand the significance of each of these factors to the changes of HPI to resolve these economic issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 May 2021

M. Ozan Yildirim

Introduction: Financial development has a direct impact on the housing market by facilitating access to credit. The increase in housing loans resulting from the relaxation of the…

Abstract

Introduction: Financial development has a direct impact on the housing market by facilitating access to credit. The increase in housing loans resulting from the relaxation of the credit constraint causes an increase in housing demand and house prices. Purpose: This study aims to examine the relationship between financial development and house prices in Turkey, using the variables: the domestic credit to the private sector and total housing and consumer credits. Methodology: To determine any long-run relationship between financial development and house prices, the autoregressive distributed lag methods are used, covering the selected variables such as real GDP, inflation, mortgage interest rate, and stock price from 2010Q1 to 2020Q2. Findings: The study’s findings show that both variables representing financial development have a statistically significant and substantial positive effect on house prices. Besides, the selected macroeconomic variables have the theoretically expected impact on house prices.

Details

Contemporary Issues in Social Science
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-931-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2023

Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.

Design/methodology/approach

This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.

Findings

The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Research limitations/implications

This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.

Practical implications

These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.

Social implications

These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.

Originality/value

Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 October 2023

Colin Jones

The paper sets out a conceptualisation of the housing cycle centring on households' desire to upgrade their housing consumption.

Abstract

Purpose

The paper sets out a conceptualisation of the housing cycle centring on households' desire to upgrade their housing consumption.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper begins by studying house price trends and cycles in OECD countries since 2000 to identify housing cycle patterns. It then assesses existing theories partly in relation to these patterns. It then proposes a new conceptualisation of the housing cycle.

Findings

The paper finds the central role of supply lags in housing cycles is not warranted. Instead, a demand cycle generated by upgrading desires better explains an initial boom followed by a slow recovery.

Originality/value

The paper challenges existing orthodoxy on housing cycle dynamics and proposes an alternative perspective.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 June 2023

Woon Weng Wong, Kwabena Mintah, Peng Yew Wong and Kingsley Baako

This study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19. Homeownership is an important goal for many, and house prices are a significant driver of household wealth and the wider economy. This study argues that excessive liquidity from central banks may be driving house price increases, despite negative changes to fundamental drivers. This study contributes to the literature by examining lending liquidity as a driver of house prices and evaluating the efficacy of fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity during black swan events.

Design/methodology/approach

This study aims to examine the impact of quantitative easing on Australian house prices during back swan events using data from 2004 to 2021. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation's Central Bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration among some of the I(1) variables, the auto-regressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions.

Findings

The Australian housing market continued to perform well during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the house price index reaching an unprecedented high towards the end of 2021. Research using data from 2004 to 2021 found a consistent positive relationship between house prices and housing finance, as well as population growth and the value of work commenced on residential properties. Other traditional drivers such as the unemployment rate, economic activity, stock prices and income levels were found to be less significant. This study suggests that quantitative easing implemented during the pandemic played a significant role in the housing market's performance.

Originality/value

Given the severity of COVID-19, policymakers have responded with fiscal and monetary measures that are unprecedented in scale and scope. The full implications of these responses are yet to be completely understood. In Australia, the policy interest rate was reduced to a historic low of 0.1%. In the following periods house prices appreciated by over 20%. The efficacy of quantitative easing and associated fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity to mitigate the impact of black swan events such as the pandemic has yet to be tested empirically. This study aims to address that paucity in literature by providing such evidence.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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