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Article
Publication date: 14 April 2022

Yener Coskun

The purpose of this study is to analyze short- and long-run market-sensitive drivers of housing affordability. The study highlights an ongoing housing affordability crisis in an…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze short- and long-run market-sensitive drivers of housing affordability. The study highlights an ongoing housing affordability crisis in an emerging market context by also providing an empirical tool to combat the crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

To investigate determinants of uniquely constructed effective housing affordability index and house price to income ratio index, the author uses a bound testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, besides causality tests, variance decompositions and impulse response functions. This study uses Turkish data for the period of 2007 M06 and 2017 M12.

Findings

The evidence suggests that the housing affordability crisis is mainly driven by credit expansion, rent and construction costs. A sensible housing policy response would target these variables. This evidence suggests that housing affordability mostly depends on housing market dynamics rather than policies because of the exogeneous/cyclical natures of the drivers.

Research limitations/implications

Data constraints shape the study. A regional or an aggregate-level panel study cannot be developed because of a lack of data. This limitation inevitably results in the exclusion of relevant socio-economic/political factors and is also the main reason for the lack of comparative analysis in a cross-country setting.

Practical implications

This study argues that dependency on neoliberal housing market practices seems the underlying reason for the lack of efficient policy answers and the ongoing affordability crisis. From a policymaking perspective, the study suggests that necessary policy measures to resolve the housing affordability crisis may give a specific emphasis on housing rent, housing credit volume and construction costs as the major components of the crisis.

Originality/value

This study develops a novel measure and presents a new conceptual framework by combining quantitative research methods and policymaking in housing affordability. In this respect, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first work to comparatively investigate the determinants of uniquely developed monthly housing affordability measurements.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 July 2020

Yener Coskun

This paper aims to offer an extensive empirical case study analysis by investigating housing affordability in Turkey as a whole, and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir over the period…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to offer an extensive empirical case study analysis by investigating housing affordability in Turkey as a whole, and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir over the period of 2006 and 2017 and its sub-periods.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper develops a theoretically informed model to assess affordability using complementary methodologies in quantitative analysis. This study seeks to help outline the nature of the problem in aggregate level and in the cities; it also seeks to offer lessons about how to address measurement and modelling challenges in emergent market contexts by constructing aggregate-/city-level housing cost-to-income (HCI) ratio, adjusted HCI (AHCI) ratio, housing affordability index (HAI) and effective HAI sensitive to multiple calculation methodologies and alternative data set involving income distribution and poverty tranches.

Findings

HCI, AHCI, HAI and EHAI models generally suggest the parallel results: housing is not affordable in Turkey and in Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir except for the highest income groups. The evidence implies that besides macroeconomic instabilities, distorted interest rates and short average mortgage maturity, poverty and unequal income/wealth distributions are the main reasons of the Turkish housing affordability crisis specifically heightened in metropolitan areas such as in Istanbul.

Research limitations/implications

The evidence provides an insight on housing affordability problems in Turkey. However, small sample size and short observation period create a limit for generalisation of the findings. Further analysis would be required to illustrate how housing affordability changes in different cities of Turkey in a longer period.

Practical implications

By using empirical approaches, this paper helps to understand how serious housing affordability problems of Turkey in aggregate and urban levels. This evidence helps to explain declining ownership ratio in low-income groups and in urban areas. Reliable explanations on existing housing crisis of Turkey also help to develop affordable housing policies.

Social implications

Declining housing affordability and homeownership ratio may translate as the rising housing inequality and insecurity among Turkish households. Moreover, better affordability values of higher income groups suggest that existing inequality, economic/social segmentation, and hence social tension between high and low income groups, may further increase. In this respect, the authors suggest socially important policies such as reducing income/wealth inequalities and increasing affordable housing supply.

Originality/value

This study offers a detailed empirical case study analysis that can be used as an exemplar of how to overcome data constraints in other evolving housing market contexts. This study sets out an approach overcoming the challenges of measurement. This study also combines existing methodological approaches with the modified variables to provide a more realistic aggregate-/urban-level housing affordability picture. The authors calculated some parts of housing affordability ratio and index series using discretionary income, minimum wage and effective minimum wage to show the variations of different measurement approaches. Some constructed series are also sensitive to income distribution and poverty thresholds. Collectively, this empirical approach, developed by using emerging market data, provides a contribution to the literature.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2013

Angelika Kallakmaa‐Kapsta and Ene Kolbre

The purpose of this study was – first, to find out how to evaluate affordability of housing in the Estonian market and, second, to assess the regulatory framework decisions'…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study was – first, to find out how to evaluate affordability of housing in the Estonian market and, second, to assess the regulatory framework decisions' impact on the housing market in Estonia.

Design/methodology/approach

This article seeks answers to how to define housing affordability for the Estonian housing market. It also describes the regulatory framework and policy decisions made by the government.

Findings

Calculations show that there is an affordability problem, and political decisions have helped to make housing loans affordable for households, but at the same time the high debt burden has weakened households' financial position.

Research limitations/implications

It could be possible to research the market using the databases of credit institutions, but the given data is under the protection of banking confidentiality.

Practical implications

The HAI index, proposed by the authors, could be calculated regularly and it could be used as a possible indicator to evaluate the capability of the population to take on household loans in the Estonian household market as a whole.

Social implications

The problem of housing affordability is very important for all households, and there is a need to continue with research in this field. Some households cannot buy a house, some have loan repayment problems.

Originality/value

No research has been done in trying to find an answer for the affordability problem in the housing market in Estonia. Also there are no analyses about the impact of the regulatory framework on the housing market – whether the government goals are achieved or not.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 July 2012

Andrew C. Worthington

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the record on housing affordability in Australia over the period 1985 to 2010, conceptually link this with the purported demand and supply…

3759

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the record on housing affordability in Australia over the period 1985 to 2010, conceptually link this with the purported demand and supply drivers given in the literature, and comment on government policy responses. The paper also provides a suggested framework for future research on housing affordability.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs descriptive analysis of measures of affordability using commercial and other information. In addition, the paper undertakes analysis of the affordability drivers and government responses using recent governmental inquiries and other research into housing affordability.

Findings

Housing affordability in Australia has worsened significantly in the past quarter century, including in both urban and regional areas, and is now among the world's most unaffordable. The main contributor at the national level has been the escalation of housing prices because of continuing strong demand arising from strong economic and population growth, the availability of cheaper and more accessible finance, and tax and other incentives for home and investor housing ownership. An additional contributor is unresponsive housing supply resulting from an extensive governmental role in land release and zoning, infrastructure charges, and building and environmental regulation.

Research limitations/implications

As an analytical paper, the central aim is to summarise the findings and conclusions of other work and provide a suggested framework for future research. Accordingly, no attempt made to model directly the relationship between housing affordability, its demand and supply drivers and government policy responses.

Practical implications

There is a need to reassess government policy at all levels as it relates to population, economic, urban, and environmental planning and government regulation and taxation and housing affordability. Need for future empirical work to quantify the causes and consequences of housing affordability.

Originality/value

This study provides a complete account of housing affordability and policy and the literature on housing affordability in Australia over the past 25 years.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 July 2019

Gary John Rangel, Jason Wei Jian Ng, Thangarajah Thiyagarajan Murugasu and Wai Ching Poon

The purpose of this paper is to measure the long-run housing affordability of Malaysia over time for households at various income levels and to demonstrate how short- and long-run…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to measure the long-run housing affordability of Malaysia over time for households at various income levels and to demonstrate how short- and long-run affordability measures can reach contradicting conclusions.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, a long-run housing affordability index (HAI) for Malaysia was constructed for the sample period 1995 to 2014, using data from house prices and household incomes. The HAI was also modified to compute a mortgage affordability index (MAI) to account for intergenerational transfers.

Findings

The results show that households at the 25th income percentile cannot afford any of the four dwelling types in Malaysia. For households at the 40th income percentile and the median income levels, high-rise and terrace housing are affordable. However, significant downward trends in HAI and MAI are documented beginning 2009, which indicates increasing housing stress for households at or below the median income. The short-run affordability measure represented by the median multiple (MM) indicator showed bleaker conclusion for housing affordability, with all dwelling types considered unaffordable over the entire sample period

Practical implications

On the basis of the empirical results, this paper provided several long-term proposals to ameliorate the housing affordability problem in Malaysia.

Originality/value

With the MM ratio being the official affordability measure reported for Malaysia, this study introduces the nation’s first long-run housing affordability measure. It is hoped that this long-run measure will achieve widespread adoption in Malaysia. Given the deteriorating long-term affordability, this study offers several possible long-term solutions.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 12 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 April 2022

Abdullah Alfalah, Simon Stevenson, Steffen Heinig and Eamonn D’Arcy

This paper aims to improve the housing affordability by measuring the housing affordability in a resource-rich economy and studying the impact of implementing new policies.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to improve the housing affordability by measuring the housing affordability in a resource-rich economy and studying the impact of implementing new policies.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper seeks to test the impact of new policies introduced to the Kuwaiti housing market to improve affordability. In 2008, the Kuwaiti parliament introduced two policies: a tax on empty lands and, forbidding companies to own or develop residential lands or houses.

Findings

By constructing the housing affordability index and the price-to-income multiplier using observations from 2004 until 2017, it has been found that affordability has worsened over time regardless of the new policies introduced in 2008. Housing in Kuwait became “severely unaffordable” (equivalent to London in the UK, San Diego in USA and Toronto in Canada).

Originality/value

Even with its unique condition, as a rich country, small population and availability of white land and other resources, the affordability worsened over time. Introducing new policies without solving the central issue of housing supply challenges seems not worth it. This paper is the first of its kind on the Kuwait housing market, and it provides a valuable foundation for future research on this market and similar markets in the region.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2013

Andrew Worthington and Helen Higgs

– Model the drivers of Australian housing affordability and forecast equilibrium affordability. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

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Abstract

Purpose

Model the drivers of Australian housing affordability and forecast equilibrium affordability. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

Uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to model housing affordability measured by the Housing Industry Association's Housing Affordability Index (HAI) and the housing price-earnings multiplier (HPE). Six sets of explanatory variables, including housing finance, housing construction activity and costs, economic growth, population, alternative investments and taxation.

Findings

Primary long-run drivers are housing finance, dwelling approvals and financial assets. Economic and population growth only have a short-run influence, while housing taxation has limited impact in long run. Forecasts indicate long-run HAI equilibrium values of 109 (above the historical minimum of 107) and a HPE of seven (below the recent historical maximum of 8.2).

Research limitations/implications

Reduced form model encompassing both demand and supply factors involves complicated interpretation given direct and indirect effects on affordability. Analysis at national level ignores regional impacts that may also affect housing affordability.

Practical implications

The impact of the low rate of new dwelling approvals (public and private sector in the long run and public sector in the short run) points to a persistent structural gap between the demand and supply of housing. Strong economic and population growth often blamed for the worsening of housing affordability, at least in the 2000s, has no impact at the aggregate national level.

Originality/value

Only known paper to provide quantitative estimates of macro drivers of Australian housing affordability over a long period using alternative measures of relative housing affordability.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 30 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 June 2023

Mingchen Duan and Yi Duan

Previous studies on housing affordability in China were concentrated in China’s coastal and central regions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate housing affordability of…

37

Abstract

Purpose

Previous studies on housing affordability in China were concentrated in China’s coastal and central regions. The purpose of this paper is to investigate housing affordability of urban residents in Northwest China. Moreover, this paper attempts to understand the consistency and influencing factors of various indicators on the evaluation of housing affordability.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses multiyear data on house sales, residents’ incomes and living expenses from 2011 to 2022. House price-to-income ratio, housing affordability index and residual income approach were calculated by using these data and used as the measure of housing affordability.

Findings

The results show that there are obvious differences in the housing affordability among the Xi’an, Lanzhou and Yinchuan during 2011–2022, and the housing affordability of residents in cities with small population and economic scale is better. The ability of most urban residents to afford suitable housing is still poor, and the ability to afford small-sized housing is better. Most families with below-middle income have poor housing affordability. It is also observed that although various indicators had similarities in the evaluation of residents’ housing affordability, the comprehensive evaluation results of multiple indicators were more reliable.

Social implications

The research results provide a basis for the decision-making of the government’s urban housing policy and improvement of residents’ housing conditions.

Originality/value

The results have a clear understanding of the housing affordability of urban residents in Northwest China. The study found that the geographical location and topography of the city is also a factor affecting the housing affordability.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 July 2012

Weida Kuang and Xiaowei Li

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of housing affordability in China's 35 large and medium cities. Furthermore, this paper investigates the relationship between…

2535

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of housing affordability in China's 35 large and medium cities. Furthermore, this paper investigates the relationship between housing affordability and the house prices using data from China's 35 large and medium cities from 1996 to 2007.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper constructed the housing affordability index and classified cities in terms of their housing affordability degree. OLS, unit root test and cointegration test have also been used in the empirical test section.

Findings

The results exhibit that the housing price has played a more important role in housing affordability than household income. Thereby, decreasing housing price is more important than household income to alleviate the housing affordability problem. Meanwhile, housing size has exerted a great impact on housing affordability. Accordingly, developing more affordable houses is an alternative to mitigate the housing affordability issue in China. In addition, it is also found that the housing reform facilitates the housing affordability issue due to the low sale price of the public houses; the population growth rate and geographic locations have no significant impact on the housing affordability.

Research limitations/implications

In terms of the research limitations, the heterogeneity factor may be introduced considering the regional heterogeneity of cities in China. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the propositions with enriched datasets.

Practical implications

Practical implications are that decision‐makers in government should pay close attention to the risk of the housing bubble. That is, the soaring house price was driven by investment instead of by the demand side.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to defining the dynamic upper boundary of the percentage of housing expenditure to income ratio via Engel's coefficient using the housing market data of 35 large and medium cities in China from 1996 to 2007.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2011

Mingchen Duan

With the rapid increase in both household discretionary income and housing price, how to improve housing affordability is the vital challenge for China, especially for the…

1095

Abstract

Purpose

With the rapid increase in both household discretionary income and housing price, how to improve housing affordability is the vital challenge for China, especially for the northwestern region where the household income is lower than that in the eastern region. This paper aims to provide an insight into the housing affordability by analyzing the influence factors of purchasing standard housing in Lanzhou, which is the second largest city in Northwest China.

Design/methodology/approach

Price to income ratio (PIR) and housing affordability index (HAI) approaches were applied in this study to measure housing affordability for Lanzhou.

Findings

The results show that the PIR values for Lanzhou range from 6.02 to 7.23 between 2001 and 2008. The value exhibits an increasing trend before 2004 and a decreasing trend after 2004. The HAI values vary between 62.0 and 83.2 and are higher from 2001 to 2003 than those from 2004 to 2008. It was observed that the level of influence of the household discretionary income, housing price and the mortgage interest rate on these two values differs significantly in the different studied periods. This indicates that housing affordability in Lanzhou is lower than the acceptable level.

Originality/value

The paper establishes an understanding of the level of housing affordability in Northwest China, and provides the basis for the formulation of the new government's housing policy for this region.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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