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Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Omokolade Akinsomi, Mustapha Bangura and Joseph Yacim

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of…

Abstract

Purpose

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of two-speed economies in some countries, such as South Africa. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of mining activities on house prices. This intends to understand the direction of house price spreads and their duration so policymakers can provide remediation to the housing market disturbance swiftly.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigated the effect of mining activities on house prices in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1 and deploying an auto-regressive distributed lag model.

Findings

In the short run, we found that changes in mining activities, as measured by the contribution of this sector to gross domestic product, impact the housing price of mining towns directly after the first quarter and after the second quarter in the non-mining cities. Second, we found that inflationary pressure is instantaneous and impacts house prices in mining towns only in the short run but not in the long run, while increasing housing supply will help cushion house prices in both submarkets. This study extended the analysis by examining a possible spillover in house prices between mining and non-mining towns. This study found evidence of spillover in housing prices from mining towns to non-mining towns without any reciprocity. In the long run, a mortgage lending rate and housing supply are significant, while all the explanatory variables in the non-mining towns are insignificant.

Originality/value

These results reveal that enhanced mining activities will increase housing prices in mining towns after the first quarter, which is expected to spill over to non-mining towns in the next quarter. These findings will inform housing policymakers about stabilising the housing market in mining and non-mining towns. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to measure the contribution of mining to house price spillover.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 September 2022

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

With the rapid-growing house market in the past decade, the purpose of this paper is to study the important issue of house price information flows among 12 major cities in China…

Abstract

Purpose

With the rapid-growing house market in the past decade, the purpose of this paper is to study the important issue of house price information flows among 12 major cities in China, including Shanghai, Beijing, Xiamen, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhuhai, Fuzhou, Suzhou and Dongguan, during the period of June 2010 to May 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors approach this issue in both time and frequency domains, latter of which is facilitated through wavelet analysis and by exploring both linear and nonlinear causality under the vector autoregressive framework.

Findings

The main findings are threefold. First, in the long run of the time domain and for timescales beyond 16 months of the frequency domain, house prices of all cities significantly affect each other. For timescales up to 16 months, linear causality is weaker and is most often identified for the scale of four to eight months. Second, while nonlinear causality is seldom determined in the time domain and is never found for timescales up to four months, it is identified for scales beyond four months and particularly for those beyond 32 months. Third, nonlinear causality found in the frequency domain is partly explained by the volatility spillover effect.

Originality/value

Results here should be of use to policymakers in certain policy analysis.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 April 2024

Anton Salov

The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to reveal the dynamics of house prices and sales in spatial and temporal dimensions across British regions.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper incorporates two empirical approaches to describe the behaviour of property prices across British regions. The models are applied to two different data sets. The first empirical approach is to apply the price diffusion model proposed by Holly et al. (2011) to the UK house price index data set. The second empirical approach is to apply a bivariate global vector autoregression model without a time trend to house prices and transaction volumes retrieved from the nationwide building society.

Findings

Identifying shocks to London house prices in the GVAR model, based on the generalized impulse response functions framework, I find some heterogeneity in responses to house price changes; for example, South East England responds stronger than the remaining provincial regions. The main pattern detected in responses and characteristic for each region is the fairly rapid fading of the shock. The spatial-temporal diffusion model demonstrates the presence of a ripple effect: a shock emanating from London is dispersed contemporaneously and spatially to other regions, affecting prices in nondominant regions with a delay.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this work is the betterment in understanding how house price changes move across regions and time within a UK context.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 December 2022

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

Understandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the…

Abstract

Purpose

Understandings of house prices and their interrelationships have undoubtedly drawn a great amount of attention from various market participants. This study aims to investigate the monthly newly-built residential house price indices of seventy Chinese cities during a 10-year period spanning January 2011–December 2020 for understandings of issues related to their interdependence and synchronizations.

Design/methodology/approach

Analysis here is facilitated through network analysis together with topological and hierarchical characterizations of price comovements.

Findings

This study determines eight sectoral groups of cities whose house price indices are directly connected and the price synchronization within each group is higher than that at the national level, although each shows rather idiosyncratic patterns. Degrees of house price comovements are generally lower starting from 2018 at the national level and for the eight sectoral groups. Similarly, this study finds that the synchronization intensity associated with the house price index of each city generally switches to a lower level starting from early 2019.

Originality/value

Results here should be of use to policy design and analysis aiming at housing market evaluations and monitoring.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 May 2022

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

This study aims to investigate dynamic relationships among residential housing price indices of ten major Chinese cities for the years 2005–2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate dynamic relationships among residential housing price indices of ten major Chinese cities for the years 2005–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

Using monthly data, this study uses vector error correction modeling and the directed acyclic graph for characterization of contemporaneous causality among the ten indices.

Findings

The PC algorithm identifies the causal pattern and the Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model algorithm further determines the causal path, from which this study conducts innovation accounting analysis. Sophisticated price dynamics are found in price adjustment processes following price shocks, which are generally dominated by the top tiers of cities.

Originality/value

This study suggests that policies on residential housing prices in the long run might need to be planned with particular attention paid to these top tiers of cities.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 June 2023

Woon Weng Wong, Kwabena Mintah, Peng Yew Wong and Kingsley Baako

This study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19. Homeownership is an important goal for many, and house prices are a significant driver of household wealth and the wider economy. This study argues that excessive liquidity from central banks may be driving house price increases, despite negative changes to fundamental drivers. This study contributes to the literature by examining lending liquidity as a driver of house prices and evaluating the efficacy of fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity during black swan events.

Design/methodology/approach

This study aims to examine the impact of quantitative easing on Australian house prices during back swan events using data from 2004 to 2021. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation's Central Bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration among some of the I(1) variables, the auto-regressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions.

Findings

The Australian housing market continued to perform well during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the house price index reaching an unprecedented high towards the end of 2021. Research using data from 2004 to 2021 found a consistent positive relationship between house prices and housing finance, as well as population growth and the value of work commenced on residential properties. Other traditional drivers such as the unemployment rate, economic activity, stock prices and income levels were found to be less significant. This study suggests that quantitative easing implemented during the pandemic played a significant role in the housing market's performance.

Originality/value

Given the severity of COVID-19, policymakers have responded with fiscal and monetary measures that are unprecedented in scale and scope. The full implications of these responses are yet to be completely understood. In Australia, the policy interest rate was reduced to a historic low of 0.1%. In the following periods house prices appreciated by over 20%. The efficacy of quantitative easing and associated fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity to mitigate the impact of black swan events such as the pandemic has yet to be tested empirically. This study aims to address that paucity in literature by providing such evidence.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 June 2023

Fredrick Chege, Hassan F. Gholipour and Sharon Yam

Given the coincidental and sustained rise in house prices and foreign capital flows in Kenya, this study aims to understand whether a long-run relationship exists between real…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the coincidental and sustained rise in house prices and foreign capital flows in Kenya, this study aims to understand whether a long-run relationship exists between real diaspora remittances and real house prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses data from 2004-Q1 to 2020-Q4 and applies an autoregressive distributed lag model for estimation.

Findings

The results indicate that a positive and significant relationship exists between real remittances and real house prices in Kenya in the long run.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is no study exploring the relationship between real remittance inflows and house prices in Kenya, after controlling for other key macroeconomic determinants of house prices. This study addresses this research gap.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 July 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important…

Abstract

Purpose

The Chinese housing market has witnessed rapid growth during the past decade and the significance of housing price forecasting has undoubtedly elevated, becoming an important issue to investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine neural networks (NNs) for office property price index forecasting from 10 major Chinese cities for July 2005–April 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors aim at building simple and accurate NNs to contribute to pure technical forecasts of the Chinese office property market. To facilitate the analysis, the authors explore different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data-spitting ratios.

Findings

The authors reach a simple NN with three delays and three hidden neurons, which leads to stable performance of about 1.45% average relative root mean square error across the 10 cities for the training, validation and testing phases.

Originality/value

The results could be used on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to form perspectives of office property price trends and conduct policy analysis.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 December 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

This study aims to investigate dynamic relations among office property price indices of 10 major cities in China for the years 2005–2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate dynamic relations among office property price indices of 10 major cities in China for the years 2005–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

Using monthly data, the authors adopt vector error correction modeling and the directed acyclic graph for the characterization of contemporaneous causality among the 10 indices.

Findings

The PC algorithm identifies the causal pattern, and the linear non-Gaussian acyclic model algorithm further determines the causal path from which we perform innovation accounting analysis. Sophisticated price dynamics are found in price adjustment processes following price shocks, which are generally dominated by the top tier of cities.

Originality/value

This suggests that policies on office property prices, in the long run, might need to be planned with particular attention paid to the top tier of cities.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 May 2023

Yin Ying Cai, Jin Xie and Lynn Huntsinger

Faced with the challenges of rural population decline, combined with the widespread expansion of homesteads in rural areas, local Chinese governments hope to strictly control and…

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Abstract

Purpose

Faced with the challenges of rural population decline, combined with the widespread expansion of homesteads in rural areas, local Chinese governments hope to strictly control and minimize rural housing land. Accurately decomposing the process of rural housing expansion and revealing its driving factors will be helpful for land-use regulation by the government.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, an unusually rich dataset of rural housing registration from Pudong New Area in Shanghai is employed. The study aimed to decompose the fragmented accumulation process and its expansion determinants on rural housing assets. The dataset covers all samples of rural households and housing plots at 72 surveyed villages in six towns.

Findings

Housing offers profitable capital and earning assets to villagers at the urban fringe, so they have a powerful incentive to build and expand more. The results of this analysis showed that the expansion of rural housing is largely due to the haphazard construction of auxiliary rooms by villagers, especially on plots of arable land that are adjacent to their houses that have been stealthily converted into auxiliary rooms and sheds. Low costs and weak penalties have led to an increase in rent-seeking expansions to rural houses. Houses with the smaller initial areas, families with more laborers and household heads, and the proximity of villages to downtown with convenient living services were the main driving factors for expanding houses. A concerted effort is needed to control the disorganized and unlicensed expansion of housing. This effort should include formulating areas for free use by villagers, high taxes on overused areas, serious penalties for unlicensed housing expansion and effective land-use planning.

Research limitations/implications

An understanding of the expansion status and control measures related to rural houses in Shanghai provides an important reference that can help to guide the formulation of rural housing policies, and the sustainable development of cities worldwide. Of course, this study cannot generalize about housing distribution and expansion status worldwide based on the study area in China, because China's land tenure policies are unique. But land registry data exists that makes research like this feasible. There is a need to carefully examine the detailed housing distribution in each country before it can be decided on how best to address the disorderly increase in rural housing stock, and promote the reduction of rural residential expansion.

Originality/value

First, the process of rural housing expansion by using an unique dataset which covers ten thousands of samples is revealed. Second, the results have policy implications for reducing the amount of idle and inefficiently rural homestead. The focus is on rural housing growth and its driving factors in Shanghai, and the villagers' motivations for housing expansion are explored.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

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