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1 – 10 of 38Zvi Schwartz, Jing Ma and Timothy Webb
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The…
Abstract
Purpose
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The asymmetry occurs due to over or under forecasts that introduce bias into forecast evaluation. This study aims to explore the nature of asymmetry and designs a new measure, one that reduces the asymmetric properties while maintaining MAPE’s scale-free and intuitive interpretation characteristics.
Design/methodology/approach
The study proposes and tests a new forecasting accuracy measure for hospitality revenue management (RM). A computer simulation is used to assess and demonstrate the problem of asymmetry when forecasting with MAPE, and the new measures’ (MSapeMER, that is, Mean of Selectively applied Absolute Percentage Error or Magnitude of Error Relative to the estimate) ability to reduce it. The MSapeMER’s effectiveness is empirically validated by using a large set of hotel forecasts.
Findings
The study demonstrates the ability of the MSapeMER to reduce the asymmetry bias generated by MAPE. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that MSapeMER is more effective than previous attempts to correct for asymmetry bias. The results show via simulation and empirical investigation that the error metric is more stable and less swayed by the presence of over and under forecasts.
Research limitations/implications
It is recommended that hospitality RM researchers and professionals adopt MSapeMER when using MAPE to evaluate forecasting performance. The MSapeMER removes the potential bias that MAPE invites due to its calculation and presence of over and under forecasts. Therefore, forecasting evaluations may be less affected by the presence of over and under forecasts and their ability to bias forecasting results.
Practical implications
Hospitality RM should adopt this measure when MAPE is used, to reduce biased decisions driven by the “asymmetry of MAPE.”
Originality/value
The MAPE error metric exhibits an asymmetry problem, and this paper proposes a more effective solution to reduce biased results with two major methodological contributions. It is first to systematically study the characteristics of MAPE’s asymmetry, while proposing and testing a measure that considerably reduces the amount of asymmetry. This is a critical contribution because MAPE is the primary forecasting metric in hospitality and tourism studies. The second methodological contribution is a procedure developed to “quantify” the asymmetry. The approach is demonstrated and allows future research to compare asymmetric characteristics among various accuracy measures.
Rob Law, Katsy Jiaxin Lin, Huiyue Ye and Davis Ka Chio Fong
The purpose of this study is to analyze state-of-the-art knowledge of artificial intelligence (AI) research in hospitality.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to analyze state-of-the-art knowledge of artificial intelligence (AI) research in hospitality.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts the theory-context-methods framework to systematically review 100 AI-related articles recently published (i.e. from 2021 to April 2023) in three top-tier hospitality journals, namely, the International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, International Journal of Hospitality Management and Journal of Hospitality Marketing and Management.
Findings
Findings suggest that studies of AI applications in hospitality are mostly theory-driven, whereas most AI methods research adopts a data-driven approach. State-of-the-art AI applications research exhibits the most interest in service robots. In AI methods research, little attention was paid to the amid-service/experience.
Research limitations/implications
This study reveals inadequacies in theory, context and methods in contemporary AI research. More research from hospitality suppliers’ perspectives and research on generative AI applications are advocated in response to the unveiled research gaps and recent AI developments.
Originality/value
This study classifies the most recent AI research in hospitality into two main streams – AI applications research and AI methods research – and discusses the gaps in each research stream and latest AI developments. The paper then suggests future research directions to guide researchers in advancing AI research in hospitality.
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Barkha Dhingra, Shallu Batra, Vaibhav Aggarwal, Mahender Yadav and Pankaj Kumar
The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a…
Abstract
Purpose
The increasing globalization and technological advancements have increased the information spillover on stock markets from various variables. However, there is a dearth of a comprehensive review of how stock market volatility is influenced by macro and firm-level factors. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by systematically reviewing the major factors impacting stock market volatility.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a combination of bibliometric and systematic literature review techniques. A data set of 54 articles published in quality journals from the Australian Business Deans Council (ABDC) list is gathered from the Scopus database. This data set is used to determine the leading contributors and contributions. The content analysis of these articles sheds light on the factors influencing market volatility and the potential research directions in this subject area.
Findings
The findings show that researchers in this sector are becoming more interested in studying the association of stock markets with “cryptocurrencies” and “bitcoin” during “COVID-19.” The outcomes of this study indicate that most studies found oil prices, policy uncertainty and investor sentiments have a significant impact on market volatility. However, there were mixed results on the impact of institutional flows and algorithmic trading on stock volatility, and a consensus cannot be established. This study also identifies the gaps and paves the way for future research in this subject area.
Originality/value
This paper fills the gap in the existing literature by comprehensively reviewing the articles on major factors impacting stock market volatility highlighting the theoretical relationship and empirical results.
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The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.
Design/methodology/approach
The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.
Findings
Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Originality/value
This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Patrik Jonsson, Johan Öhlin, Hafez Shurrab, Johan Bystedt, Azam Sheikh Muhammad and Vilhelm Verendel
This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?
Design/methodology/approach
A mixed-method case approach is applied. Explanatory variables are identified from the literature and explored in a qualitative analysis at an automotive original equipment manufacturer. Using logistic regression and random forest classification models, quantitative data (historical schedule transactions and internal data) enables the testing of the predictive difference of variables under various planning horizons and inaccuracy levels.
Findings
The effects on delivery schedule inaccuracies are contingent on a decoupling point, and a variable may have a combined amplifying (complexity generating) and stabilizing (complexity absorbing) moderating effect. Product complexity variables are significant regardless of the time horizon, and the item’s order life cycle is a significant variable with predictive differences that vary. Decoupling management is identified as a mechanism for generating complexity absorption capabilities contributing to delivery schedule accuracy.
Practical implications
The findings provide guidelines for exploring and finding patterns in specific variables to improve material delivery schedule inaccuracies and input into predictive forecasting models.
Originality/value
The findings contribute to explaining material delivery schedule variations, identifying potential root causes and moderators, empirically testing and validating effects and conceptualizing features that cause and moderate inaccuracies in relation to decoupling management and complexity theory literature?
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The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is…
Abstract
Purpose
The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.
Findings
The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.
Originality/value
In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.
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Moslem Sheikhkhoshkar, Hind Bril El Haouzi, Alexis Aubry and Farook Hamzeh
In academics and industry, significant efforts have been made to lead planners and control teams in evaluating project performance and control. In this context, numerous control…
Abstract
Purpose
In academics and industry, significant efforts have been made to lead planners and control teams in evaluating project performance and control. In this context, numerous control metrics have been devised and put into practice, often with little emphasis on analyzing their underlying concepts. To cover this gap, this research aims to identify and analyze a holistic list of control metrics and their functionalities in the construction industry.
Design/methodology/approach
A multi-step analytical approach was conducted to achieve the study’s objectives. First, a holistic list of control metrics and their functionalities in the construction industry was identified. Second, a quantitative analysis based on social network analysis (SNA) was implemented to discover the most important functionalities.
Findings
The results revealed that the most important control metrics' functionalities (CMF) could differ depending on the type of metrics (lagging and leading) and levels of control. However, in general, the most significant functionalities include managing project progress and performance, evaluating the look-ahead level’s performance, measuring the reliability and stability of workflow, measuring the make-ready process, constraint management and measuring the quality of construction flow.
Originality/value
This research will assist the project team in getting a comprehensive sensemaking of planning and control systems and their functionalities to plan and control different dynamic aspects of the project.
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To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia…
Abstract
Purpose
To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.
Findings
The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.
Research limitations/implications
It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.
Originality/value
The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.
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Anjali Bansal, C. Lakshman, Marco Romano, Shivinder Nijjer and Rekha Attri
Research on leaders’ knowledge management systems focuses exclusively on how leaders gather and disseminate knowledge in collaboration with external actors. Not much is known…
Abstract
Purpose
Research on leaders’ knowledge management systems focuses exclusively on how leaders gather and disseminate knowledge in collaboration with external actors. Not much is known about how leaders address the psychological aspects of employees and strategize internal communication. In addition, while previous work has treated high uncertainty as a default feature of crisis, this study aims to propose that perceived uncertainty varies in experience/meaning and has a crucial bearing on the relative balance of cognitive/emotional load on the leader and behavioral/psychological responses.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors contribute by qualitatively examining the role of leader knowledge systems in designing communication strategies in the context of the COVID-19 crisis by investigating communication characteristics, style, modes and the relatively unaddressed role of compassion/persuasion. In this pursuit, the authors interviewed 21 C-suite leaders, including chief executive officers, chief marketing officers, chief financial officers, chief human resource officers and founders, and analyzed their data using open, axial and selective coding, which were later extracted for representative themes and overarching dimensions.
Findings
Drawing from grounded theory research, the authors present a framework of knowledge systems and their resultant communication with employees in high uncertain and low uncertain crises. The authors highlight interactions of a set of concepts – leaders’ preparedness, leaders’ support to employees tailored communication adapted to perceived uncertainty, leading to enhanced trust – in the achievement of outcomes related to balancing operational and relational systems with employees. The findings suggest that a structured process of communication helps employees mitigate any concern related to uncertainty and feel confident in their leadership.
Originality/value
The research has implications for leaders in managing their knowledge systems, for human esources practitioners in designing effective internal communication programs, as well as for scholars in knowledge management, communication and leadership.
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Abdollah Taki and Afsaneh Soroushyar
The purpose of this study is to investigate the moderating role of honesty-humility of financial managers on aggressive financial reporting behavior.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate the moderating role of honesty-humility of financial managers on aggressive financial reporting behavior.
Design/methodology/approach
To test the research hypotheses, a scenario-based questionnaire taken from Brink et al. (2018) was used. Using a cross-sectional survey design, the authors collected primary data of 160 financial managers of firms in Iran using structured questionnaires. The research sample selected was based on Cohen et al.’s (2000) table. To test the research hypotheses, analysis of variance was used.
Findings
The results showed that increasing honesty-humility of financial managers decreases the impact of social pressure and risk appetite interaction on aggressive financial reporting. In addition, the results of further analysis showed that reducing the honesty-humility of financial managers increases the impact of risk appetite on aggressive financial reporting. Moreover, the results indicate that reducing the honesty-humility of financial managers increases the impact of social pressure on aggressive financial reporting.
Research limitations/implications
This finding provides significant evidence for auditor, managers and policymakers in Iran. Policymakers, auditor and company managers can emphasize compliance with the code of ethics, internal control and corporate governance to increase ethics and reduce negative economic consequences.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first case in an emerging economy to survey the moderating role of honesty-humility of financial managers on aggressive financial reporting behavior. Also, this study contributes to understanding how factors at the individual, social and organizational level combine to influence financial managers’ aggressive financial reporting behavior.
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