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Article
Publication date: 11 April 2024

Everton Anger Cavalheiro, Kelmara Mendes Vieira and Pascal Silas Thue

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.

Findings

The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.

Practical implications

Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.

Originality/value

This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Jayesh Prakash Gupta, Hongxiu Li, Hannu Kärkkäinen and Raghava Rao Mukkamala

In this study, the authors sought to investigate how the implicit social ties of both project owners and potential backers are associated with crowdfunding project success.

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Abstract

Purpose

In this study, the authors sought to investigate how the implicit social ties of both project owners and potential backers are associated with crowdfunding project success.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing on social ties theory and factors that affect crowdfunding success, in this research, the authors developed a model to study how project owners' and potential backers' implicit social ties are associated with crowdfunding projects' degrees of success. The proposed model was empirically tested with crowdfunding data collected from Kickstarter and social media data collected from Twitter. The authors performed the test using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model with fixed effects.

Findings

The authors found that project owners' implicit social ties (specifically, their social media activities, degree centrality and betweenness centrality) are significantly and positively associated with crowdfunding projects' degrees of success. Meanwhile, potential project backers' implicit social ties (their social media activities and degree centrality) are negatively associated with crowdfunding projects' degrees of success. The authors also found that project size moderates the effects of project owners' social media activities on projects' degrees of success.

Originality/value

This work contributes to the literature on crowdfunding by investigating how the implicit social ties of both potential backers and project owners on social media are associated with crowdfunding project success. This study extends the previous research on social ties' roles in explaining crowdfunding project success by including implicit social ties, while the literature explored only explicit social ties.

Details

Internet Research, vol. 34 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1066-2243

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 June 2024

Azhar Mohamad

This study examines herding behaviour in commodity markets amid two major global upheavals: the Russo–Ukraine conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines herding behaviour in commodity markets amid two major global upheavals: the Russo–Ukraine conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

By analysing 18 commodity futures worldwide, the study examines herding trends in metals, livestock, energy and grains sectors. The applied methodology combines static and dynamic approaches by incorporating cross-sectional absolute deviations (CSAD) and a time-varying parameter (TVP) regression model extended by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to adequately reflect the complexity of herding behaviour in different market scenarios.

Findings

Our results show clear differences in herd behaviour during these crises. The Russia–Ukraine war led to relatively subdued herding behaviour in commodities, suggesting a limited impact of geopolitical turmoil on collective market behaviour. In stark contrast, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic significantly amplified herding behaviour, particularly in the energy and livestock sectors.

Originality/value

This discrepancy emphasises the different impact of a health crisis versus a geopolitical conflict on market dynamics. This study makes an important contribution to the existing literature as it is one of the first studies to contrast herding behaviour in commodity markets during these two crises. Our results show that not all crises produce comparable market reactions, which underlines the importance of the crisis context when analysing financial market behaviour.

Article
Publication date: 29 May 2024

Xianjin Zha, Zeyu Lu and Yalan Yan

For undergraduate and graduate students in universities, social media are playing an important role in their study/research because a large amount of academic information has been…

Abstract

Purpose

For undergraduate and graduate students in universities, social media are playing an important role in their study/research because a large amount of academic information has been accumulated on social media. Indeed, social media are complementing university libraries. Given that intelligent recommender systems have been widely implemented on social media, this paper aims to examine the adoption mechanism of intelligently recommended information by university students in their study/research.

Design/methodology/approach

Building upon the updated information system success model and herding theory, this study developed a research model to examine the determinants of recommended information adoption in mobile applications for social media. Data were collected through an online questionnaire and analyzed with partial least squares structural equation modelling.

Findings

The results suggest that herding belief is a valid second-order construct, comprising two first-order dimensions of imitating others and discounting their own information. Information quality, system quality and service quality directly impact satisfaction with the intelligent recommender system. Furthermore, satisfaction with the intelligent recommender system and herding belief directly impact recommended information adoption by university students in their study/research.

Originality/value

This study draws on the updated information system success model and incorporates herding belief as an extended component to investigate recommended information adoption, providing a new lens for understanding recommended information adoption by university students in their study/research.

Details

The Electronic Library , vol. 42 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-0473

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 24 May 2024

Sujung Choi

This paper examines the hypothesis of local herding (i.e. own-area effects) by individual investors on a particular stock-month. Using a unique dataset on online and offline…

Abstract

This paper examines the hypothesis of local herding (i.e. own-area effects) by individual investors on a particular stock-month. Using a unique dataset on online and offline individual investors’ trading records in Korea, we analyze buying and selling transactions involving 10,000 accounts from February 1999 to December 2005. We find that both online and offline investors in the same area tend to exhibit stronger local herding compared to investors’ trades who are geographically remote. Interestingly, online investors not only present stronger own-area effects but also exhibit more pronounced other-area effects compared with offline investors. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that gender and religious affiliation are important in investment behavior, with male and non-religious investors displaying a greater stock market participation in contrast to investors who are female and Protestant.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2022

Xuan Cu Le

Social media has progressively upgraded an interactive domain via online sociability and information-sharing. This study aims to formulate an information-sharing intention model…

Abstract

Purpose

Social media has progressively upgraded an interactive domain via online sociability and information-sharing. This study aims to formulate an information-sharing intention model by identifying the decisive role of intrinsic and extrinsic motivations.

Design/methodology/approach

Empirical data from 508 participants were collected to examine the structural model using structural equation modeling.

Findings

Results indicate that information-sharing intention is strongly promoted by intrinsic and extrinsic motivations. Furthermore, perceived herding, perceived crowd and intrinsic motivation boost substantially extrinsic motivation. Perceived herding is of utmost importance to extrinsic motivation, whereas emotional appeal and informative appeal are of paramount importance to intrinsic motivation. Moreover, source trust and exhibitionism are underlying motivations for intrinsic motivation.

Practical implications

The findings provide useful guidelines for practitioners to urge users into information-sharing via social media.

Originality/value

This study contributes significantly to the current literature by developing an effective mechanism of information-sharing through social media based on the motivational theory.

Details

VINE Journal of Information and Knowledge Management Systems, vol. 54 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2059-5891

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 September 2024

Arjun Hans, Farah S. Choudhary and Tapas Sudan

The study aims to identify and understand the underlying behavioral tendencies and motivations influencing investor sentiments and examines the relationship between these…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to identify and understand the underlying behavioral tendencies and motivations influencing investor sentiments and examines the relationship between these underlying factors and investment decisions during the COVID-19-induced financial risks.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the primary data and information collected from 300 Indian retail equity investors using a nonprobability sampling technique, specifically purposive and snowball sampling. This research uses the insights from Phuoc Luong and Thi Thu Ha (2011) and Shefrin (2002) to delineate behavioral factors influencing investment decisions. Structural equation modeling estimates the causal relationship between underlying behavioral factors and investment decisions during the COVID-19-induced financial risks.

Findings

The study establishes that the “Regret Aversion,” “Gambler’s Fallacy” and “Greed” significantly influence investment decisions, and provide a comprehensive understanding of how psychological motivations shape investor behavior. Notably, “Mental Accounting” and “Conservatism” exhibit insignificance, possibly influenced by the unique socioeconomic context of the pandemic. The research contributes to 35% of variance understanding and prompts the researchers and policymakers to tailor investment strategies aligned to these behavioral tendencies.

Research limitations/implications

The findings hold policy implications for investors and policymakers and provide tailored recommendations including investor education programs and regulatory measures to ensure a resilient and informed investment community in the context of India's evolving financial landscapes.

Originality/value

Theoretically, behavior tendencies and motivations have been strongly linked to investment decisions in the stock market. Yet, empirical evidence on this relationship is limited in developing countries where investors focus on risk management. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is among the first to document the influence of underlying behavioral tendencies and motivation factors on investment decisions regarding retail equity in a developing country.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 August 2024

Yonathan Dri Handarkho

This study proposes a theoretical model to explain user intention to continue engaging with Social Commerce (SC) from a habit perspective. The research uses social impact theory…

Abstract

Purpose

This study proposes a theoretical model to explain user intention to continue engaging with Social Commerce (SC) from a habit perspective. The research uses social impact theory, user personal traits, and SC quality to explain how user habits are formed in SC, leading to continued usage.

Design/methodology/approach

The study collected data from 868 Indonesian respondents using a cross-sectional field design. SEM analysis confirmed the proposed theoretical model, calculating direct, indirect, and moderating effects.

Findings

The results showed that the social aspect is the dominant construct influencing users’ habit of using SC. Further, the outcome indicates that habit significantly predicts Continuity usage. Profoundly, subjective norms are the most significant predictors of habit, followed by self-efficacy, content quality, and herd behavior. Meanwhile, Trust and Social Support only indirectly affect Habit through self-efficacy and content quality, respectively, as mediators. Additionally, the moderating effect analysis revealed that age and gender play a role in habit formation.

Originality/value

This study specifically explores the factors affecting the development of habits in SC usage, leading to repeated behaviors. This area has not been thoroughly examined in previous research. Therefore, this study seeks to address this gap by investigating how habits are formed through social interactions on SC platforms. Understanding habit formation provides an alternative way of comprehending the continued use of SC, as it is considered a significant factor that leads to continued intention.

Details

Aslib Journal of Information Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2050-3806

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 September 2024

Srivatsa Maddodi and Srinivasa Rao Kunte

The Indian stock market can be tricky when there's trouble in the world, like wars or big conflicts. It's like trying to read a secret message. We want to figure out what makes…

Abstract

Purpose

The Indian stock market can be tricky when there's trouble in the world, like wars or big conflicts. It's like trying to read a secret message. We want to figure out what makes investors nervous or happy, because their feelings often affect how they buy and sell stocks. We're building a tool to make prediction that uses both numbers and people's opinions.

Design/methodology/approach

Hybrid approach leverages Twitter sentiment, market data, volatility index (VIX) and momentum indicators like moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and relative strength index (RSI) to deliver accurate market insights for informed investment decisions during uncertainty.

Findings

Our study reveals that geopolitical tensions' impact on stock markets is fleeting and confined to the short term. Capitalizing on this insight, we built a ground-breaking predictive model with an impressive 98.47% accuracy in forecasting stock market values during such events.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this model's originality lies in its focus on short-term impact, novel data fusion and high accuracy. Focus on short-term impact: Our model uniquely identifies and quantifies the fleeting effects of geopolitical tensions on market behavior, a previously under-researched area. Novel data fusion: Combining sentiment analysis with established market indicators like VIX and momentum offers a comprehensive and dynamic approach to predicting market movements during volatile periods. Advanced predictive accuracy: Achieving the prediction accuracy (98.47%) sets this model apart from existing solutions, making it a valuable tool for informed decision-making.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 March 2024

Tarek Chebbi, Hazem Migdady, Waleed Hmedat and Maha Shehadeh

The price clustering behavior is becoming a core part of the market efficiency theory especially with the development of trading strategies and the occurrence of major and…

Abstract

Purpose

The price clustering behavior is becoming a core part of the market efficiency theory especially with the development of trading strategies and the occurrence of major and unprecedented shocks which have led to severe inquiry regarding asset price dynamics and their distribution. However, research on emerging stock market is scant. The study contributes to the literature on price clustering by investigating an active emerging stock market, the Muscat stock market one of the Arabian Gulf Markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This research adopts the artificial intelligence technique and other statistical estimation procedure in understanding the price clustering patterns in Muscat stock market and their main determinants.

Findings

The findings reveal that stock prices are marked by clustering behavior as commonly highlighted in the previous studies. However, we found strong evidence of price preferences to cluster on numbers closer to zero than to one. We also show that the nature of firm’s activity matters for price clustering behavior. In addition, firms with traded bonds in Oman market experienced a substantial less stock price clustering than other firms. Clustered stock prices are more likely to have higher prices and higher volatility of price. Finally, clustering raised when the market became highly uncertain during the Covid-19 crisis especially for the financial firms.

Originality/value

This study provides novel results on price clustering literature especially for an active emerging market and during the Covid-19 pandemic crisis.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

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