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Article
Publication date: 29 January 2024

Clement Olalekan Olaniyi and Nicholas M. Odhiambo

This study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in selected sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1981 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

To account for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity and policy variations across countries in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus, this study uses robust Hatemi-J data decomposition procedures and a battery of second-generation techniques. These techniques include cross-sectional dependency tests, panel unit root tests, slope homogeneity tests and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality approach.

Findings

Unlike existing studies, the panel and country-specific findings exhibit several dimensions of asymmetric causality in the inflation-poverty nexus. Positive inflationary shocks Granger-causes poverty reduction through investment and employment opportunities that benefit the impoverished in SSA. These findings align with country-specific analyses of Botswana, Cameroon, Gabon, Mauritania, South Africa and Togo. Also, a decline in poverty causes inflation to increase in the Congo Republic, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo. All panel and country-specific analyses reveal at least one dimension of asymmetric causality or another.

Practical implications

All stakeholders and policymakers must pay adequate attention to issues of asymmetric structures, nonlinearities and country-to-country policy variations to address country-specific issues and the socioeconomic problems in the probable causal nexus between the high incidence of extreme poverty and double-digit inflation rates in most SSA countries.

Originality/value

Studies on the inflation-poverty nexus are not uncommon in economic literature. Most existing studies focus on inflation’s effect on poverty. Existing studies that examine the inflation-poverty causal relationship covertly assume no asymmetric structure and nonlinearity. Also, the issues of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity are unexplored in the causal link in existing studies. All panel studies covertly impose homogeneous policies on countries in the causality. This study relaxes this supposition by allowing policies to vary across countries in the panel framework. Thus, this study makes three-dimensional contributions to increasing understanding of the inflation-poverty nexus.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 November 2022

Özcan Karahan and Olcay Çolak

The direction of the causality relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth is a highly controversial issue in the literature. There are two basic…

Abstract

Purpose

The direction of the causality relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth is a highly controversial issue in the literature. There are two basic approaches advocating different causal directions between FDI and growth, which are called hypotheses of FDI-led Growth and Growth-led FDI. The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship between FDI and economic growth in RCEP countries and thus make a new contribution to the discussions in the relevant literature. In addition, the results of the study are expected to provide important implications for the policies to be designed for economic growth based on FDI flows to RCEP countries. Thus, by examining the direction of causality between FDI and economic growth in RCEP countries, we aim to provide a new contribution to related literature and make some implications for the policy design process of economic growth in the RCEP area.

Design/methodology/approach

We empirically examined the direction of a causal link between FDI and economic growth in the context of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RPEC) countries in order to test the hypothesis of FDI-led growth and Growth-led FDI. Accordingly, as our main variables of interest, we incorporated the inward foreign direct investment stock to gross domestic product ratio (FDI) and gross domestic product per capita (GDP). Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test has been employed in the investigation of the direction of causality between FDI and GDP over the period of 1980–2020. Thus, unlike most of the studies investigating the direction of causality between FDI and growth using the linear causality analysis method, our study performed a nonlinear causality analysis.

Findings

Empirical results reveal that the causal relationship between FDI and national income in RPEC countries is non-linear or asymmetric . The results of the symmetric causality test for both from FDI to national income and from national income to FDI are statistically insignificant for all countries. Therefore, this finding obtained from the study provided an important guide to the econometric methods to be used in other studies to be conducted in the same region in the future. Concerning the asymmetric causality relationship from FDI to growth, positive FDI shocks are an important cause of national income in most RCEP countries. However, the effect of negative FDI shocks on national income is quite weak compared to positive shocks. Regarding the asymmetric causality relationship from growth to FDI, positive national income shocks do not create a significant causal relationship with FDI. Similarly, the effects of negative national income shocks on FDI are statistically insignificant. Overall, asymmetric causality test results reveal that positive FDI shocks have an important causal impact on economic growth in most RCEP countries. Thus, the results of econometric analysis mostly support the argument that the FDI-led growth hypothesis rather than the Growth-led FDI hypothesis in RCEP countries. Accordingly, policy-makers in most of the RCEP countries should continue to provide more incentives and facilities to multinational companies in order to ensure constant economic growth.

Originality/value

Our study brings a significant difference in the econometric method used compared to most of the other studies in the literature. Existing empirical studies on the direction of causality between FDI and growth mostly use standard Granger-linear causality-type tests to detect the direction of causality among FDI and growth. Unlike most of the studies in the literature, our study adopted a different methodological approach, namely the Hatemi J test to detect the non-linear causality between FDI and economic growth in RCEP countries. Therefore, this paper made a new methodological contribution significantly to the literature focusing on the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth by using a non-linear causality method rather than a linear causality one.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 40 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2023

Huthaifa Alqaralleh and Abdulnasser Hatemi-J.

This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy sources on the economic growth of eight countries, the capital stock and labour…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy sources on the economic growth of eight countries, the capital stock and labour force being used as control variables in each case. Questions that need to be asked include the following: Is there is an asymmetric and, hence, a non-linear relationship between variables? If yes, how does economic growth interact with both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption (EC)? How different are these relationships in the countries highly rated in the performance of renewable EC compared to those lowly rated?

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses asymmetric quantile-based methods to extract possible asymmetric and, hence, non-linear relationships between the underlying variables.

Findings

A newly developed asymmetric panel quantile approach suggests that EC has a significant effect on economic growth in both directions of shocks as well as for the considered sample. The results further support the findings in recent literature on renewable energy deployment, given the importance of renewable EC for economic growth with the increased levels of renewable EC, although the initial investments may have a negative effect on economic growth for some countries.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature in twofold. Firstly, it aims to contribute to the ongoing debate in literature by incorporating both renewable and non-renewable energy resources in the production function with labour and capital to test their asymmetric impact on economic growth. Secondly, this paper uses asymmetric quantile-based methods to extract possible asymmetric and, hence, non-linear relationships between the underlying variables. Another point that should be emphasised in this study is the need for studies analysing economic growth and EC for a sample of G20 countries based on a comparative view for the renewable and non-renewable EC in literature.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 July 2023

Youssef El-Khatib and Abdulnasser Hatemi-J

The current paper proposes a prediction model for a cryptocurrency that encompasses three properties observed in the markets for cryptocurrencies—namely high volatility…

Abstract

Purpose

The current paper proposes a prediction model for a cryptocurrency that encompasses three properties observed in the markets for cryptocurrencies—namely high volatility, illiquidity, and regime shifts. As far as the authors’ knowledge extends, this paper is the first attempt to introduce a stochastic differential equation (SDE) for pricing cryptocurrencies while explicitly integrating the mentioned three significant stylized facts.

Design/methodology/approach

Cryptocurrencies are increasingly utilized by investors and financial institutions worldwide as an alternative means of exchange. To the authors’ best knowledge, there is no SDE in the literature that can be used for representing and evaluating the data-generating process for the price of a cryptocurrency.

Findings

By using Ito calculus, the authors provide a solution for the suggested SDE along with mathematical proof. Numerical simulations are performed and compared to the real data, which seems to capture the dynamics of the price path of two main cryptocurrencies in the real markets.

Originality/value

The stochastic differential model that is introduced and solved in this article is expected to be useful for the pricing of cryptocurrencies in situations of high volatility combined with structural changes and illiquidity. These attributes are apparent in the real markets for cryptocurrencies; therefore, accounting explicitly for these underlying characteristics is a necessary condition for accurate evaluation of cryptocurrencies.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

Findings

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

Originality/value

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 September 2023

Muzffar Hussain Dar and Md. Zulquar Nain

This study examines the possibility of asymmetric impact of inflation on the financial development (FD) in the case of Indian economy from 1980 to 2020. Moreover, the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the possibility of asymmetric impact of inflation on the financial development (FD) in the case of Indian economy from 1980 to 2020. Moreover, the finance–growth hypothesis is also tested.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors incorporated the “Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag” (NARDL) model due to Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the asymmetric impact of inflation on financial development. Asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers are also used to track the traverse of any short-run distortion towards the long-run cointegration.

Findings

The results revealed that inflation impacts the financial development negatively whereas the economic growth (EG) and trade openness have a positive effect. However, the effect of inflation on financial development is not symmetric. Moreover, the findings support the demand-led growth hypothesis.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study examining the asymmetric effects of inflation on financial development in the Indian context. In addition, instead of using a single proxy to measure financial development, an index for financial development encompassing different aspects of the financial system has been incorporated.

Peer review

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-02-2023-0094

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 51 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2023

Vani Aggarwal and Nidhi Karwasra

The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis on the economic relationship between trade openness and economic growth and to identify current developments…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis on the economic relationship between trade openness and economic growth and to identify current developments, potential research area and future directions. The emphasis is on the identification of annual growth of publications, country-wise distribution, publication pattern, intellectual structure and cluster analysis of scientific production in this field.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used evaluative techniques, text mining approach and performance analysis to identify possible patterns and correlation and to measure the impact of authors/citations/scientific production. Further, this study used the bibliometric mapping to represent the structural features of scientific production. This study emphasized on identification of the research hotspots based on occurrence of indexed keywords, productive researchers and journals during 2000–2022. Further, cluster analysis is performed using VOS viewer to analyze the current dynamics and future direction of the association between trade openness and economic growth (Eck and Waltman, 2011). Also, co-citation analysis is used in this study to identify the relations among authors or journals or documents using citation data, whereas the bibliographic coupling/mapping is intended to analyze the citing documents. Similarly, co-word analysis is used to study the article keywords that are mainly used to assess the conceptual structure of a concerning subject.

Findings

Economic growth is a function of trade openness, and it is important to analyze the relationship between trade openness and economic growth. Trade openness tends to become more liberalized over time, to contribute more to economic growth. Empirical evidence suggested that there exists a strong association between trade openness and economic growth. Further, keyword timeline analysis illustrated that the linkage between trade openness and economic growth is current area of interest among researchers. As per bibliometric analysis, China, Pakistan and Malaysia are the three most prolific countries in the terms of published articles on this theme. However, the most influential publications based on h-index and citation on trade openness–economic growth relationship is produced by Turkey. Based on cluster analysis, this study suggests that researchers are currently working on trade openness–economic growth relationship with other variables such as FDI, financial development, labor force, environment degradation and carbon emission, while in future, researchers could work on variables such as technology and sustainable development.

Research limitations/implications

There are some limitations of this study. The first limitation is the authors have used Scopus database, leaving the possibility for future research to use Web of Science, Google Scholar or other similar sources. The second limitation is that the authors have used search terms “trade openness “and “economic growth,” although research could be performed using synonyms or even relevant terms in other languages.

Practical implications

Cluster analysis suggested that researchers are currently working on trade openness–economic growth relationship with other variables such as FDI, financial development, labor force, environment degradation and carbon emission, while in future, researchers could work on variables such as technology and sustainable development. Therefore, this study identified the potential research area in this research domain.

Originality/value

To confirm the originality of this study, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to combine bibliometric analysis and cluster analysis on trade openness–economic growth relationship. This study makes a comparison with phenomena/processes/events in contemporary economic and social reality in the field of trade openness and economic growth relationship.

Details

Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal , vol. 34 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1059-5422

Keywords

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