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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2016

Shuli Yan and Sifeng Liu

With respect to multi-stage group risk decision-making problems in which all the attribute values take the form of grey number, and the weights of stages and decision makers are…

Abstract

Purpose

With respect to multi-stage group risk decision-making problems in which all the attribute values take the form of grey number, and the weights of stages and decision makers are unknown, the purpose of this paper is to propose a new decision-making method based on grey target and prospect theory.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the sequencing and distance between two grey numbers are introduced. Then, a linear operator with the features of the “rewarding good and punishing bad” is presented based on the grey target given by decision maker, and the prospect value function of each attribute based on the zero reference point is defined. Next, weight models of stages and decision makers are suggested, which are based on restriction of stage fluctuation, the maximum differences of alternatives and the maximum entropy theory. Furthermore, the information of alternatives is aggregated by WA operator, the alternatives are selected by their prospect values.

Findings

The comprehensive cumulative prospect values are finally aggregated by WA operator, alternatives are selected or not are judged by the sign of the comprehensive prospect theory, if the prospect value of alternative is negative, the corresponding alternative misses the group decision makers’ grey target, on the contrary, if the prospect value of alternative is positive, the corresponding alternative is dropped into the group decision makers’ grey target, the alternative with positive prospect value whose value is the maximum is selected.

Originality/value

Compared with the traditional decision-making methods using expected utility theory which suppose the decision makers are all completely rational, the proposed method is based on irrational which is more in line with the decision maker’s psychology. And this method considers the decision maker’s psychological expectation values about every attribute, different satisfactory grey target about attributes will directly affect decision-making result.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Lizhen Wang and Wuyong Qian

The purpose of this paper is to propose a grey target decision model based on cobweb area in order to overcome the effect and influence from the extreme value of the index on the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a grey target decision model based on cobweb area in order to overcome the effect and influence from the extreme value of the index on the decision result. However, it does not take into account the impact of the correlation between indicators on the angle of the index, and produce a certain degree decision information distortion as a result of the equal angle between the indicators. In order to solve the above problems, a novel grey decision-making model based on cone volume is proposed.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the model uses the whitening weight function to whiten the interval grey number, and the Delphi method and the maximal entropy method are exploited to integrate the weight of the index. On the basis of this, the center of the bull’s eye, the weight and the index value are constructed as the center circle, the radius, and the high cone, respectively. The scheme is selected by the volume of the cone, the decision is made according to the order relation, and the example is utilized to prove and analyze the validity of the proposed model.

Findings

The results show that the proposed model can well improve the traditional grey target decision-making model from the modeling object and modeling method.

Practical implications

The method exposed in the paper can be used to deal with the grey target decision-making problems which characteristics are multi-indexes, and the attribute values are interval grey numbers.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in overcoming the disadvantages of grey target decision making based on the target center distance and the cobweb area.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 November 2023

Na Zhang, Haiyan Wang and Zaiwu Gong

Grey target decision-making serves as a pivotal analytical tool for addressing dynamic multi-attribute group decision-making amidst uncertain information. However, the setting of…

Abstract

Purpose

Grey target decision-making serves as a pivotal analytical tool for addressing dynamic multi-attribute group decision-making amidst uncertain information. However, the setting of bull's eye is frequently subjective, and each stage is considered independent of the others. Interference effects between each stage can easily influence one another. To address these challenges effectively, this paper employs quantum probability theory to construct quantum-like Bayesian networks, addressing interference effects in dynamic multi-attribute group decision-making.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the bull's eye matrix of the scheme stage is derived based on the principle of group negotiation and maximum satisfaction deviation. Secondly, a nonlinear programming model for stage weight is constructed by using an improved Orness measure constraint to determine the stage weight. Finally, the quantum-like Bayesian network is constructed to explore the interference effect between stages. In this process, the decision of each stage is regarded as a wave function which occurs synchronously, with mutual interference impacting the aggregate result. Finally, the effectiveness and rationality of the model are verified through a public health emergency.

Findings

The research shows that there are interference effects between each stage. Both the dynamic grey target group decision model and the dynamic multi-attribute group decision model based on quantum-like Bayesian network proposed in this paper are scientific and effective. They enhance the flexibility and stability of actual decision-making and provide significant practical value.

Originality/value

To address issues like stage interference effects, subjective bull's eye settings and the absence of participative behavior in decision-making groups, this paper develops a grey target decision model grounded in group negotiation and maximum satisfaction deviation. Furthermore, by integrating the quantum-like Bayesian network model, this paper offers a novel perspective for addressing information fusion and subjective cognitive biases during decision-making.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 October 2012

Dang Luo and Jing Zhang

According to the nature and source of alternative energy, types of new energy vehicle include hybrid electric vehicle, pure electric vehicle, fuel cell vehicles, natural gas…

679

Abstract

Purpose

According to the nature and source of alternative energy, types of new energy vehicle include hybrid electric vehicle, pure electric vehicle, fuel cell vehicles, natural gas vehicle, coal‐to‐alcohol vehicle, bio‐fuel vehicle, clean diesel vehicle and so on. At present, all kinds of new energy vehicle are flourishing, but in the near future it is not sure what kind of new energy vehicle that national policies will support, so the risk of new energy vehicle project is large. This paper aims to address this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

Grey target decision‐making mainly was used in the choice of programs. First, the decision‐making matrix and the index weight are determined after establishing the decision‐making index system; then the positive clout and the negative clout are determined; the distance to the positive clout and the negative clout for every decision‐making program are calculated; finally, the composite distance to clout is obtained and programs sorted in light of the size of composite distance to target centre.

Findings

This paper analyzed the operating conditions of new energy vehicle in Zhengzhou and Xinxiang; and then elaborated the modelling steps of weighted grey target decision with both the positive clout and the negative clout, and used in recent decision‐making the new energy vehicle in Henan Province. It not only makes more comprehensive and rational decision‐making, but also extends the application of the grey target decision model in practice.

Practical implications

In the recent two years of formulating national and local relevant preferential policies, the enthusiasm of enterprises to participate and the level of consumer awareness are further improved; as an international trend, the development of a new energy vehicle is inevitable.

Social implications

It helps to make scientific decision‐making. The study proposes a theoretical guidance to carry out the new energy vehicle project in Henan Province.

Originality/value

This paper elaborates the modelling steps of weighted grey target decision‐making based on positive clout and negative clout, and established the model of grey target decision‐making according to the selected index; finally, it analyzes the recent development route of a new energy vehicle in Henan Province and puts forward some suggestions.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2020

Xiao Bai, Yan Xu and Sifeng Liu

The purpose of this paper is to establish the index system of leading industries in Kashgar urban agglomeration, and use the multi-attribute weighted intelligent grey target

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish the index system of leading industries in Kashgar urban agglomeration, and use the multi-attribute weighted intelligent grey target decision-making evaluation model to measure the comprehensive effect, so as to select the leading industries of Kashgar urban agglomeration.

Design/methodology/approach

First, 18 industries in Kashgar urban agglomerations are taken as objectives, and four indexes, namely, demand income elasticity index, growth rate index, labor productivity growth rate index and contribution rate of output value, are selected to construct an evaluation system for leading industry selection in Kashgar urban agglomerations. Then, grey incidence degree method is used to determine the decision-making power of each decision-making objective. Finally, multi-attribute weighted intelligent grey target decision-making evaluation model is used to measure the comprehensive effect of the objective system of leading industries in Kashgar urban agglomerations.

Findings

It can be seen that the multi-attribute weighted intelligent grey target decision-making evaluation model is more convenient to be used in selecting regional leading industries, and the results are accurate and feasible. Based on the calculation results and the actual economic development requirements of Kashgar urban agglomeration, the leading industries of Kashgar urban agglomeration can be determined as: wood processing, furniture, paper making and printing; wholesale and retail; construction; equipment manufacturing; transportation, storage and postal services.

Originality/value

First, it is a new method in selecting regional leading industry by using the multi-attribute weighted intelligent grey target decision-making evaluation model. Second, since there is relatively little research on Kashgar urban agglomeration, especially on leading industries in Kashgar urban agglomeration. The research in this paper can not only enrich the research on selecting leading industries in urban agglomeration but also provide scientific reference for relevant government agencies to formulate economic development plans.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2017

Aiqing Ruan and Yinao Wang

Grey target decision making is one of the important problems of decision-making theory. It is critical to express uncertain information effectively and depose them in a reasonable…

Abstract

Purpose

Grey target decision making is one of the important problems of decision-making theory. It is critical to express uncertain information effectively and depose them in a reasonable and simple way. The purpose of this paper is to solve the grey target problem by the grey potential degree method without whiten value and without distribution function. Furthermore, this new approach has an advantage of realizing both comparing and standardization work during the process of treating the data.

Design/methodology/approach

First, this paper makes a brief overview of the existing method for grey target decision. Then, the conception of a grey potential degree system is introduced and the conception of standard grey potential degree is build up, and a new grey potential-based method based on the grey target multiple attribute decision method is proposed. At the same time, the standard grey potential and its application in multiple resource data are studied.

Findings

At the same time the standard grey potential and its application in multiple resource data are studied. Standard grey potential is presented by means of three examples together with the comparison with the existing method to demonstrate that the grey potential-based method could be used to solve the problem of grey target decision conveniently and effectively.

Originality/value

It is very important to compare grey numbers to obtain scientific and reasonable results for a grey target decision-making problem. However, in the actual application of grey numbers, it is difficult to find out the probability density function or the whiten function of grey numbers. When grey numbers are compared and deposed through the whiten value, much information regarding grey numbers will be lost and, at the same time, the value of grey numbers in uncertainty is partly lost. The method discussed in this paper is reasonable and feasible.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 7 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Ye Li, Shanli Zhu and San-dang Guo

The purpose of this paper is to propose the grey target decision method based on three-parameter interval grey number for dealing with multi-attribute decision-making problems…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose the grey target decision method based on three-parameter interval grey number for dealing with multi-attribute decision-making problems under uncertain environment.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the kernel and ranking method of three-parameter interval grey number are defined, which is the basis of determining the positive and negative bull’s-eye. Next, a new distance measure of three-parameter interval grey number is defined in view of the importance of the “center of gravity” point. Furthermore, a new comprehensive bull’s-eye distance is proposed based on the kernel which integrates the distance between different attributes to the positive and negative bull’s-eye. Then attribute weights are obtained by comprehensive bull’s-eye distance minimum and grey entropy maximization.

Findings

The paper provides a grey target decision method based on three-parameter interval grey number and example analysis shows that the method proposed in this paper is more reasonable and effective.

Research limitations/implications

If we have a better understanding of the distribution characteristics of three-parameter interval grey number, it is possible to have a more reasonable measure of the distance of three-parameter interval grey number.

Practical implications

The paper provides a grey target decision method, which can help decision maker deal with multi-attribute decision-making problems under uncertain environment.

Originality/value

This paper proposed the kernel and ranking method of three-parameter interval grey number, and defined a new distance measure of three-parameter interval grey number and proposed a new comprehensive bull’s-eye distance, Furthermore, this paper structured a grey target decision method based on three-parameter interval grey number.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Shuli Yan, Sifeng Liu and Xiaqing Liu

The purpose of this paper is to present a new method about dynamic decision problems with three-parameter grey numbers from other angle of view which not only aggregates the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present a new method about dynamic decision problems with three-parameter grey numbers from other angle of view which not only aggregates the attribute values of alternatives of all the periods, but also excavates changes of attribute values about alternatives between the adjacent periods.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adopt grey target method to calculate the distance between every alternative and the best, worst bull’s eye, the distance between change series and the best, worst change bull’s eye, then both distances can be aggregated to reflect information about two aspects.

Findings

This dynamic decision-making method not only aggregates the existing state of alternatives all of the stages, but also excavates the change information from vertical and horizontal direction, the decision result conforming to decision maker’s psychological behavior is obtained though adjusting the priority parameter.

Originality/value

The paper considers on change of alternative’s attribute values from one period to the next period, and the dynamic characteristic has been reflected adequately. The grey target decision-making method reflects the distance between alternative and bull’s eye, the comprehensive target distance between alternative and positive, worst bull’s eye about change series are separately provided. And the final target distance reflecting both existing state and change trend is constructed.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 October 2013

Dang Luo, Xia Wang and Bo Song

The paper aims to research the multi-attribute decision-making in which the attribute values are interval grey numbers and the maximum probability of the value of grey number is…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to research the multi-attribute decision-making in which the attribute values are interval grey numbers and the maximum probability of the value of grey number is known.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors define deviation degree and dominance relation of three-parameter interval grey number and get the equivalence between the dominance relation of decision-making object and the sum of three values of three-parameter interval grey number. Then, considering the uncertainty of goal weight, the authors construct multi-index optimization model based on deviation degree and get the goal weight.

Findings

The authors prove the rationality and effectiveness of decision-making methods by examples and give a new thought for grey multi-attribute decision-making methods.

Originality/value

As a paper research on theory, it offered a new multi-attribute decision-making method with three-parameter interval grey number.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2012

Hehua Wang, Zhigeng Fang and Jianjun Zhu

The purpose of this paper is to study the extensive method of grey target based on multi‐stage linguistic label, which is a hypothesis of incomplete information of the weight of…

258

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the extensive method of grey target based on multi‐stage linguistic label, which is a hypothesis of incomplete information of the weight of stage and decision maker.

Design/methodology/approach

For the incomplete weight information case, the weight model for the stage and decision maker is put forward based on the requirement of maximum difference among the alternatives. Also, the weight of the decision maker is estimated by the grey relationship method and the Euclid distance method.

Findings

As a result, the method of multiple stage grey target decision making based on linguistic label is suggested. In the incomplete information case, the weight model is suggested and the aggregation is put forward. The suggested method is clear and simple, which can be used in multi‐criteria decision making fields.

Practical implications

This paper offers a very useful result for multi‐attribute decision making.

Originality/value

This paper succeeds in studying the extensive method of grey target based on multi‐stage linguistic label, which is a hypothesis of incomplete information of the weight of stage and the decision maker.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 41 no. 5/6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

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