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Tracking global trends has evolved into an analytic and prognostic industry in and of itself, and we do not pretend to offer a comprehensive overview of global trends and globalization. We offer a selective catalog of what we see as the major global trends that impact upon public managers in developing and transitional nations.⁵

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

China’s national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world’s largest carbon market. However, China’s carbon market is faced with various major challenges. One of the most important challenges is its impact on the social and economic development of arid and semi-arid regions. By simulating the carbon price trends under different economic development and energy consumption levels, this study aims to help the government can plan ahead to formulate various countermeasures to promote the integration of arid and semi-arid regions into the national carbon market.

To achieve this goal, this paper builds a back propagation neural network model, takes the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as the research object and uses the mean impact value method to screen out the important driving variables of European Union Allowance (EUA) price, including economic development (Stoxx600, Stoxx50, FTSE, CAC40 and DAX), black energy (coal and Brent), clean energy (gas, PV Crystalox Solar and Nordex) and carbon price alternatives Certification Emission Reduction (CER). Finally, this paper sets up six scenarios by combining the above variables to simulate the impact of different economic development and energy consumption levels on carbon price trends.

Under the control of the unchanged CER price level, economic development, black energy and clean energy development will all have a certain impact on the EUA price trends. When economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development are on the rise, the EUA price level will increase. When the three types of variables show a downward trend, except for the sluggish development of clean energy, which will cause the EUA price to rise sharply, the EUA price trend will also decline accordingly in the remaining scenarios.

On the one hand, this paper incorporates driving factors of carbon price into the construction of carbon price prediction system, which not only has higher prediction accuracy but also can simulate the long-term price trend. On the other hand, this paper uses scenario simulation to show the size, direction and duration of the impact of economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development on carbon prices in a more intuitive way.

As corporations respond to international pressures, exemplified by global “megatrends”, certain trends are emerging concerning the way that corporations use executive development to develop their key assests to respond to the external pressures. This article articulates and describes these trends based on discussions with over 200 companies concerning executive development over the last 18 months. These trends are: (1) processes to align executive development to the business objectives; (2) the parallel development of individuals and learning organisations; (3) the development of critical individual competencies; (4) the creation of a select but comprehensive menu of development options; (5) the development of global partnerships, networks and alliances; (6) the creation of competitive advantage through learning. These trends indicate a focus on developing organisational and individual capabilities aligned to the business objectives in order to create competitive advantage. This focus is not new, but the deliberate attempt to combine these six trends indicates a new awareness of how to achieve competitive advantage through learning. This paper examines each of these trends in executive development and explores implications for the future.

This paper aims to track how ecotourism has been presented in a digital world over time using geotagged photographs and internet search data. Ecotourism photographs and Google Trends search data are used to evaluate tourist perceptions of ecotourism by developing a categorization of essential attributes, examining the relation of ecotourism and sustainable development, and measuring the popularity of the ecotourism sites.

The researchers collected geotagged photographs from Flickr.com and downloaded Google search data from Google Trends. An integrative approach of content, trend and spatial analysis was applied to develop ecotourism categories and investigate tourist perceptions of ecotourism. First, the authors investigate ecotourism geotagged photographs on a social media to comprehend tourist perceptions of ecotourism by developing a categorization of key ecotourism attributes and measuring the popularity of the ecotourism sites. Second, they examined how ecotourism has been related with sustainable development using internet search data and investigate the trends in search data. Third, spatial analysis using GIS maps was used to visualize the spatial-temporal changes of photographs and tourist views throughout the world.

This study identified three primary themes of ecotourism perceptions and 13 categories of ecotourism attributes. Interest over time about ecotourism was mostly presented as its definitions in Google Trends. The result indicates that tracked ecotourism locations and tourist footprints are not congruent with the popular regions of ecotourism Google search.

This research follows the changing trends in ecotourism over a decade using geotagged photographs and internet search data. The evaluation of the global ecotourism trend provides important insights for global sustainable tourism development and actual tourist perception. Analyzing the trend of ecotourism is a strategic approach to assess the achievement of UN sustainable development goals. Factual perspectives and insights into how tourists are likely to seek and perceive natural attractions are valuable for a range of audiences, such as tourism industries and governments.

研究目的本论文旨在探索生态旅游业在电子世界中是如何随着时间而显示出来的，文章样本为带有地理标记的图片和互联网搜索数据。本文使用生态旅游图片和谷歌趋势搜索数据来评估游客对生态旅游的感知，通过对关键要素的分类，审视生态旅游和可持续发展的关系，以及衡量生态旅游基地的受欢迎程度等方法。

本论文作者从Flickr.com上搜集地理标记图片以及从谷歌趋势上下载谷歌搜索数据。样本分析通过内容、趋势、空间上的综合分析，来开发生态旅游类别和游客对生态旅游的感知。首先，我们研究了社交媒体上的生态旅游地理标记图片以理解游客对生态旅游的感知情况，以此搭建了关键生态旅游要素的类别体系，和衡量生态旅游基地的受欢迎程度。第二，我们通过使用互联网搜索数据，检测了生态旅游如何与可持续发展相连接，以及研究了搜索数据中的趋势。第三，我们使用了GIS软件来操作空间分析，对图片的空间-时间改变和游客对世界的观点做了可视化处理。

本论文确立了三项生态旅游感知的基本主题以及13项生态旅游要素类别。生态旅游互联网随着时间演化，根据谷歌趋势上的定义，被大致地展现出来。本论文研究结果表示生态旅游地理位置和游客足迹与生态旅游谷歌搜索的热门区域不全是完全吻合的。

本论文使用地理标记图片和互联网搜索数据将生态旅游发展趋势近十年的变化描画出来。全球生态旅游趋势的评估对全球可持续旅游发展和实际游客感知方面做出重要见解启示。生态旅游趋势的分析作为一种战略方法，对UN可持续发展目标的时间起到评估作用。本论文针对游客的真实感知和意见，游客如何选择和感知自然景观，这对于很多群体，比如旅游行业和政府，都有着重要意义。

The paper evaluates trends shaping the post-pandemic reality. The framework adopted is a case study of the V4 region (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) that illustrates broader trends, their direction of change and their influence on the entire region. This paper aims to identify key trends and analyse how they can facilitate or hinder sustainable development.

The paper is based on a multidisciplinary literature review and an online real-time Delphi study carried out across four European countries.

The results indicate that the influence of negative trends on sustainability is much stronger than that of positive ones. Concerning the trends’ driving factors, the blockers of negative trends have a much higher influence on sustainability than the blockers of positive ones. The study shows that the most significant trends affecting sustainability are distributed throughout various fields of human activity, including geopolitics, social issues, education, the environment, technology and health.

The findings presented below can be used primarily by decision makers from the V4 region, who are responsible for crafting strategies regarding post-COVID recovery. The study illustrates trends that V4 countries and other European Union member states might be facing in the future and analyses how they relate to sustainability. The conclusions indicate that the most effective path to the desired level of sustainability is one that incorporates policies built around the blockers of negative trends.

The importance of this study lies in its focus on countries that had previously received little attention in scientific analyses. The paper shows their possible developmental pathways and sheds light on the framework of integrated foresight and its applications in sustainability-related areas.

How prospective or emerging technologies can be supported through government-funded research projects has gradually received global attention. However, previous studies have primarily focused on the effects of government funding on subsequent technological development, the overall economy or social welfare of a country or corporate research and development (R&D) activities. These studies have not examined the technology distribution and development trends of government-funded research from a comprehensive technology perspective. In addition, previous measurements of the influence of government-funded R&D projects faced the difficulty of transferring the research achievements of government-funded research to the commercial market.

Patents can provide a preliminary understanding of the collaboration, development focus and status of market technologies. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to examine the development directions of patented technologies engendered from government-funded research projects. Analyzing the network of government-funded patented technologies helped identify the current status and location of specific technologies in a patent network as well as the hotspot technologies in government-funded research projects that correspond to the market.

The results of this study indicated that the technologies obtaining government-funded patents mainly consist of advanced materials and semiconductors and that the technological focus has shifted over the years. Nanotechnology, pharmaceutical technology and sanitary technology have gradually become the technologies receiving most of government-funded patents. The trend of development of these technologies also corresponds to the emerging technologies advocated by countries worldwide in recent years.

This study provided a comprehensive verification of the government-funded patented technologies from a macro perspective by identifying key technologies using technology network analysis. The findings of this study can serve as a reference for the allocation of governmental R&D resources and the promotion of novel technologies in the private sector.

The purpose of this paper is to explore and understand current challenges and future trends in leadership and management development that can help practitioners in post-wars periods, using evidence from Syrian public sector.

Qualitative method design is used for data collection: semi-structured interviews with 24 senior managers in the public sector.

The findings revealed that the current challenges includes egos, technological hurdles, financial constraints, instability and the different expectations of new and old staff; future trends include developing collective leadership, technology literacy applications for effective leadership development, focusing on self-learning and development, focusing on creativity and innovation for transferring learning and development and targeting both vertical and horizontal learning and development.

Research data have been collected with managers working in an unstable environment. Only the public sector has been involved in the study. There were a number of limitations, e.g. selection of participant sample size and exploratory methodology, which affect generalizing the findings.

The implication of the current study is practical in nature. Essentially, post-war governments can use the results of the current study to help leaders and managers develop and implement effective strategies to meet their enormous and urgent needs.

Leadership/management development has become a strategic issue in post-war countries, acting as the key element in the stage of extensive reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, and the restoration and restructuring of social services in former conflict zones, and the restoration and restructuring of economy and many other roles.

The research in this paper aims to investigate the development of Library and Information Science in Chinese universities. Specifically, it focuses on understanding the spatial and temporal aspects of subject knowledge output and providing a more comprehensive explanation of the imbalance in subject research.

This study applies the bibliometric method to analyze 131,112 papers published by 51 universities in mainland China from 1977 to 2021, as recorded in the Chinese Social Sciences Citation Index (CSSCI). The study classifies the evolution trends of the discipline and quantifies the published article data of the universities using the index of published articles. Additionally, it examines the development status, structural situation, influencing factors and prospects of universities in different categories and regions.

The field of Library and Information Science is gaining momentum in Chinese universities, but there are significant differences in its development. While the relative gap among universities in a regional context is diminishing, the absolute gap in the category perspective is increasing. The development of Library and Information Science is influenced by various factors, including the academic environment, geographical position, scientific research projects and academic traditions. The uneven development of the discipline is maintained in the short term.

This paper proposes a new quantitative index of discipline development, the university publication index. This index allows for an examination of the temporal and spatial trends of discipline development using domestic universities as the subject of research. The paper presents an overview of discipline development through four aspects: academic participation practice, discipline governance mechanisms, education and teaching systems and discourse construction within the discipline. The theoretical support provided by this study can help facilitate innovative development in the discipline.

With the continuous improvement of social and economic development as well as the rising level of demand for spiritual life, the design of cultural and creative products has ushered in new opportunities and challenges. Therefore the research related to cultural and creative products design is an inevitable choice for industrial innovation and market competition. The article aims to analyze the frontier hotspots and trend evolution of theoretical research on cultural and creative design in China by presenting different research fields, personnel and institutions embodied by cultural and creative products, thus providing a forward-looking development reference for China's special cultural and creative product design practice.

In this paper, the visualized citation analysis tool — CiteSpace V is used to analyze and map the relevant literature of Chinese cultural and creative design in CNKI (Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure) as the data sources, through bibliometric methods, in order to study the application development of Chinese cultural and creative design and provide reference for the application research of Chinese cultural and creative industries.

With the improvement of China's comprehensive strength, cultural self-confidence and strategy are being paid more and more attention by scholars; with the future research of China's cultural and creative design theory, cross-integration becomes the future trend; with the gradual maturity of China's cultural and creative design methodology, how to choose the right method for pioneering research is a difficulty for the future development of cultural and creative design; with the continuous development of China's economy, the method construction of innovative cultural and creative industry system becomes the focus of future research; with the continuous progress of science and technology, the integration of emotion and product industry is the mainstream of future development on cultural and creative design.

Through an objective empirical analysis of the development of Chinese cultural and creative products, it will broaden the research horizons of relevant scholars, understand the development direction of China's cultural and creative industries, enrich the design practice application of Chinese cultural and creative products, enhance the understanding of international counterparts on Chinese cultural and creative design research and promote the exchange among international counterparts.