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Book part
Publication date: 22 December 2006

Derick W. Brinkerhoff and Jennifer Brinkerhoff

Tracking global trends has evolved into an analytic and prognostic industry in and of itself, and we do not pretend to offer a comprehensive overview of global trends and…

Abstract

Tracking global trends has evolved into an analytic and prognostic industry in and of itself, and we do not pretend to offer a comprehensive overview of global trends and globalization. We offer a selective catalog of what we see as the major global trends that impact upon public managers in developing and transitional nations.5

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Comparative Public Administration
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-453-9

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Article
Publication date: 3 August 2020

Zhao-Peng Li, Li Yang, Si-Rui Li and Xiaoling Yuan

China’s national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world’s largest carbon market. However, China’s carbon market is faced with…

Abstract

Purpose

China’s national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world’s largest carbon market. However, China’s carbon market is faced with various major challenges. One of the most important challenges is its impact on the social and economic development of arid and semi-arid regions. By simulating the carbon price trends under different economic development and energy consumption levels, this study aims to help the government can plan ahead to formulate various countermeasures to promote the integration of arid and semi-arid regions into the national carbon market.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve this goal, this paper builds a back propagation neural network model, takes the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as the research object and uses the mean impact value method to screen out the important driving variables of European Union Allowance (EUA) price, including economic development (Stoxx600, Stoxx50, FTSE, CAC40 and DAX), black energy (coal and Brent), clean energy (gas, PV Crystalox Solar and Nordex) and carbon price alternatives Certification Emission Reduction (CER). Finally, this paper sets up six scenarios by combining the above variables to simulate the impact of different economic development and energy consumption levels on carbon price trends.

Findings

Under the control of the unchanged CER price level, economic development, black energy and clean energy development will all have a certain impact on the EUA price trends. When economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development are on the rise, the EUA price level will increase. When the three types of variables show a downward trend, except for the sluggish development of clean energy, which will cause the EUA price to rise sharply, the EUA price trend will also decline accordingly in the remaining scenarios.

Originality/value

On the one hand, this paper incorporates driving factors of carbon price into the construction of carbon price prediction system, which not only has higher prediction accuracy but also can simulate the long-term price trend. On the other hand, this paper uses scenario simulation to show the size, direction and duration of the impact of economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development on carbon prices in a more intuitive way.

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International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 12 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1998

Heather Cairns

As corporations respond to international pressures, exemplified by global “megatrends”, certain trends are emerging concerning the way that corporations use executive…

Abstract

As corporations respond to international pressures, exemplified by global “megatrends”, certain trends are emerging concerning the way that corporations use executive development to develop their key assests to respond to the external pressures. This article articulates and describes these trends based on discussions with over 200 companies concerning executive development over the last 18 months. These trends are: (1) processes to align executive development to the business objectives; (2) the parallel development of individuals and learning organisations; (3) the development of critical individual competencies; (4) the creation of a select but comprehensive menu of development options; (5) the development of global partnerships, networks and alliances; (6) the creation of competitive advantage through learning. These trends indicate a focus on developing organisational and individual capabilities aligned to the business objectives in order to create competitive advantage. This focus is not new, but the deliberate attempt to combine these six trends indicates a new awareness of how to achieve competitive advantage through learning. This paper examines each of these trends in executive development and explores implications for the future.

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Journal of Workplace Learning, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-5626

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Article
Publication date: 5 June 2020

Hanyoung Go, Myunghwa Kang and Yunwoo Nam

This paper aims to track how ecotourism has been presented in a digital world over time using geotagged photographs and internet search data. Ecotourism photographs and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to track how ecotourism has been presented in a digital world over time using geotagged photographs and internet search data. Ecotourism photographs and Google Trends search data are used to evaluate tourist perceptions of ecotourism by developing a categorization of essential attributes, examining the relation of ecotourism and sustainable development, and measuring the popularity of the ecotourism sites.

Design/methodology/approach

The researchers collected geotagged photographs from Flickr.com and downloaded Google search data from Google Trends. An integrative approach of content, trend and spatial analysis was applied to develop ecotourism categories and investigate tourist perceptions of ecotourism. First, the authors investigate ecotourism geotagged photographs on a social media to comprehend tourist perceptions of ecotourism by developing a categorization of key ecotourism attributes and measuring the popularity of the ecotourism sites. Second, they examined how ecotourism has been related with sustainable development using internet search data and investigate the trends in search data. Third, spatial analysis using GIS maps was used to visualize the spatial-temporal changes of photographs and tourist views throughout the world.

Findings

This study identified three primary themes of ecotourism perceptions and 13 categories of ecotourism attributes. Interest over time about ecotourism was mostly presented as its definitions in Google Trends. The result indicates that tracked ecotourism locations and tourist footprints are not congruent with the popular regions of ecotourism Google search.

Originality/value

This research follows the changing trends in ecotourism over a decade using geotagged photographs and internet search data. The evaluation of the global ecotourism trend provides important insights for global sustainable tourism development and actual tourist perception. Analyzing the trend of ecotourism is a strategic approach to assess the achievement of UN sustainable development goals. Factual perspectives and insights into how tourists are likely to seek and perceive natural attractions are valuable for a range of audiences, such as tourism industries and governments.

摘要

研究目的本论文旨在探索生态旅游业在电子世界中是如何随着时间而显示出来的,文章样本为带有地理标记的图片和互联网搜索数据。本文使用生态旅游图片和谷歌趋势搜索数据来评估游客对生态旅游的感知,通过对关键要素的分类,审视生态旅游和可持续发展的关系,以及衡量生态旅游基地的受欢迎程度等方法。

研究设计/方法/途径

本论文作者从Flickr.com上搜集地理标记图片以及从谷歌趋势上下载谷歌搜索数据。样本分析通过内容、趋势、空间上的综合分析,来开发生态旅游类别和游客对生态旅游的感知。首先,我们研究了社交媒体上的生态旅游地理标记图片以理解游客对生态旅游的感知情况,以此搭建了关键生态旅游要素的类别体系,和衡量生态旅游基地的受欢迎程度。第二,我们通过使用互联网搜索数据,检测了生态旅游如何与可持续发展相连接,以及研究了搜索数据中的趋势。第三,我们使用了GIS软件来操作空间分析,对图片的空间-时间改变和游客对世界的观点做了可视化处理。

研究结果

本论文确立了三项生态旅游感知的基本主题以及13项生态旅游要素类别。生态旅游互联网随着时间演化,根据谷歌趋势上的定义,被大致地展现出来。本论文研究结果表示生态旅游地理位置和游客足迹与生态旅游谷歌搜索的热门区域不全是完全吻合的。

研究原创性/价值

本论文使用地理标记图片和互联网搜索数据将生态旅游发展趋势近十年的变化描画出来。全球生态旅游趋势的评估对全球可持续旅游发展和实际游客感知方面做出重要见解启示。生态旅游趋势的分析作为一种战略方法,对UN可持续发展目标的时间起到评估作用。本论文针对游客的真实感知和意见,游客如何选择和感知自然景观,这对于很多群体,比如旅游行业和政府,都有着重要意义。

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Article
Publication date: 12 March 2018

Majd Megheirkouni

The purpose of this paper is to explore and understand current challenges and future trends in leadership and management development that can help practitioners in…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore and understand current challenges and future trends in leadership and management development that can help practitioners in post-wars periods, using evidence from Syrian public sector.

Design/methodology/approach

Qualitative method design is used for data collection: semi-structured interviews with 24 senior managers in the public sector.

Findings

The findings revealed that the current challenges includes egos, technological hurdles, financial constraints, instability and the different expectations of new and old staff; future trends include developing collective leadership, technology literacy applications for effective leadership development, focusing on self-learning and development, focusing on creativity and innovation for transferring learning and development and targeting both vertical and horizontal learning and development.

Research limitations/implications

Research data have been collected with managers working in an unstable environment. Only the public sector has been involved in the study. There were a number of limitations, e.g. selection of participant sample size and exploratory methodology, which affect generalizing the findings.

Practical implications

The implication of the current study is practical in nature. Essentially, post-war governments can use the results of the current study to help leaders and managers develop and implement effective strategies to meet their enormous and urgent needs.

Originality/value

Leadership/management development has become a strategic issue in post-war countries, acting as the key element in the stage of extensive reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, and the restoration and restructuring of social services in former conflict zones, and the restoration and restructuring of economy and many other roles.

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International Journal of Organizational Analysis, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1934-8835

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2003

Georgios I. Zekos

Aim of the present monograph is the economic analysis of the role of MNEs regarding globalisation and digital economy and in parallel there is a reference and examination…

Abstract

Aim of the present monograph is the economic analysis of the role of MNEs regarding globalisation and digital economy and in parallel there is a reference and examination of some legal aspects concerning MNEs, cyberspace and e‐commerce as the means of expression of the digital economy. The whole effort of the author is focused on the examination of various aspects of MNEs and their impact upon globalisation and vice versa and how and if we are moving towards a global digital economy.

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Managerial Law, vol. 45 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0558

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Article
Publication date: 21 June 2021

Ming K. Lim, Weiqing Xiong and Chao Wang

In the last decade, cloud manufacturing (CMfg) has attracted considerable attention from academia and industry worldwide. It is widely accepted that the design and…

Abstract

Purpose

In the last decade, cloud manufacturing (CMfg) has attracted considerable attention from academia and industry worldwide. It is widely accepted that the design and analysis of cloud manufacturing architecture (CMfg-A) are the basis for developing and applying CMfg systems. However, in existing studies, analysis of the status, development process and internal characteristics of CMfg-A is lacking, hindering an understanding of the research hotspots and development trends of CMfg-A. Meanwhile, effective guidance is lacking on the construction of superior CMfg-As. The purpose of this paper is to review the relevant research on CMfg-A via identification of the main layers, elements, relationships, structure and functions of CMfg-A to provide valuable information to scholars and practitioners for further research on key CMfg-A technologies and the construction of CMfg systems with superior performance.

Design/methodology/approach

This study systematically reviews the relevant research on CMfg-A across transformation process to internal characteristics by integrating quantitative and qualitative methods. First, the split and reorganization method is used to recognize the main layers of CMfg-A. Then, the transformation process of six main layers is analysed through retrospective analysis, and the similarities and differences in CMfg-A are obtained. Subsequently, based on systematic theory, the elements, relationships, structure and functions of CMfg-A are inductively studied. A 3D printing architecture design case is conducted to discuss the weakness of the previous architecture and demonstrate how to improve it. Finally, the primary current trends and future opportunities are presented.

Findings

By analyzing the transformation process of CMfg-A, this study finds that CMfg-A resources are developing from tangible resources into intangible resources and intelligent resources. CMfg-A technology is developing from traditional cloud computing-based technology towards advanced manufacturing technology, and CMfg-A application scope is gradually expanding from traditional manufacturing industry to emerging manufacturing industry. In addition, by analyzing the elements, relationships, structure and functions of CMfg-A, this study finds that CMfg-A is undergoing a new generation of transformation, with trends of integrated development, intelligent development, innovative development and green development. Case study shows that the analysis of the development trend and internal characteristics of the architecture facilitates the design of a more effective architecture.

Research limitations/implications

This paper predominantly focuses on journal articles and some key conference papers published in English and Chinese. The reason for considering Chinese articles is that CMfg was proposed by the Chinese and a lot of Chinese CMfg-A articles have been published in recent years. CMfg is suitable for the development of China’s manufacturing industry because of China’s intelligent manufacturing environment. It is believed that this research has reached a reliable comprehensiveness that can help scholars and practitioners establish new research directions and evaluate their work in CMfg-A.

Originality/value

Prior studies ignore the identification and analysis of development process and internal characteristics for the current development of CMfg-A, including the main layers identification of different CMfg-As and the transformation process analysis of these main layers, and in-depth analysis of the inner essence of CMfg-A (such as its elements, relationships, structure and functions). This study addresses these limitations and provides a comprehensive literature review.

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Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2000

P.J. Palmer and D.J. Williams

This paper begins with a brief review of previous work in the field of technology forecasting and discusses the Fisher Pry model in particular, before concluding with an…

Abstract

This paper begins with a brief review of previous work in the field of technology forecasting and discusses the Fisher Pry model in particular, before concluding with an attempt at forecasting the rate of development of smart technology. The Fisher Pry model is shown to fit well with an assumed ultimate microprocessor clock speed of 1.2GHz. By combining data from multiple sources support is found for the hypothesis that rates of development can be correlated with development activity, as measured by the number of US patents filed in specific technology areas. A forecast for the development of “smart” technology is made to demonstrate how the models may be used to generate forecasts of future developments, where limited data are available.

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Microelectronics International, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1356-5362

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Article
Publication date: 6 March 2020

Cornelis van Dorsser and Poonam Taneja

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

Findings

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

Research limitations/implications

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

Practical implications

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

Social implications

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

Originality/value

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 5 June 2020

Shuling Zhou, Xi Zhang, Juan Liu, Kaihua Zhang and Yuqing Zhao

Smart cities show a “booming” trend both in the academia and the industry in recent years. Scholars across the world have been investigating how new technologies are…

Abstract

Purpose

Smart cities show a “booming” trend both in the academia and the industry in recent years. Scholars across the world have been investigating how new technologies are applied to develop new services to the inhabitants and cities all over the world also address the “smart cities” challenges by promoting policymaking and governance. This paper aims to conduct in-depth research on smart cities by combining the study of governance policy study and information technology study.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper empirically mapped the trends of smart city development, outstanding scholars and hot topics about smart cities by analyzing important references using CiteSpace. The authors visualized references and topics to analyze smart city research, based on empirical data from Web of Science. Furthermore, two most important research branches – topics from smart city governance research and those from information systems (IS) research were studied, respectively.

Findings

First, the authors mapped the development of research and divided the development into three different stages. Second, the authors explored important, influential and instructive publications and publications’ attributes including authors, institutions, journals and topics. Third, the authors found there are different characteristics between the IS group and the governance group in publication situations, influential institutions, journals and authors, although the research points of the two branches are overlapping and fragmented. Finally, the authors proposed important topics, which include “internet of things (IoT)”, “big data”, “smart city systems” and “smart city management” and the authors predicted that “IoT” and “smart city challenge” would be future trends in recent years.

Originality/value

This study is an innovative research of its category because it visualized the development of smart city research, analyzed both governance and technology branches of smart city research synthetically using CiteSpace and forecasted future trends of smart city research by topics analysis and visualization of evolution.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. 11 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

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