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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of an improved dummy variables control grey model (DVCGM) considering the hysteresis effect of government policies in China's energy intensity (EI) forecasting.

Energy consumption is considered as an important driver of economic development. China has introduced policies those aim at the optimization of energy structure and EI. In this study, EI is forecasted by an improved DVCGM, considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies of the government. A nonlinear optimization method based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is constructed to calculate the hysteresis parameter. A one-step rolling mechanism is applied to provide input data of the prediction model. Grey model (GM) (1, N), DVCGM (1, N) and ARIMA model are applied to test the accuracy of the improved DVCGM (1, N) model prediction.

The results show that the improved DVCGM provides reliable results and works well in simulation and predictions using multivariable data in small sample size and time-lag virtual variable. Accordingly, the improved DVCGM notes the hysteresis effect of government policies and significantly improves the prediction accuracy of China's EI than the other three models.

This study estimates the EI considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies in China by using an improved DVCGM. The main contribution of this paper is to propose a model to estimate EI, considering the hysteresis effect of energy-saving policies and improve forecasting accuracy.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the internal interaction mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth from a systematic perspective, based on which this work forecasts their future development trends.

In this study, a multivariate grey model is applied to the prediction of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth. Considering the impact of the COVID-19 on marine development, this paper introduces the weakening buffer operator into MGM(1,m) and constructs the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model. To verify the validity and accuracy of the new model, this paper uses AWBO-MGM(1,m), MGM(1,m), GM(1,N), GM(1,1), back propagation neural network and linear regression models for simulation and prediction based on the data from 2010 to 2021, respectively.

From the theoretical perspective, the development of marine scientific research and education can accelerate industrial upgrading and promote marine economic growth by providing high-quality talents, promoting marine science and technology progress and reducing transaction costs; while the upgrading of marine industrial structure and marine economic growth can promote the development of marine scientific research and education by guiding social capital, enhancing talent demand and stimulating market vitality. From the empirical analysis, the AWBO-MGM(1,m) model can effectively deal with epidemic shocks and has higher fitting and prediction accuracy than the other five comparative models.

The government should pay attention to the construction of marine scientific research and education, so as to provide high-quality talents and advanced scientific research results for the high-quality development of marine economy. On the basis of using science and technology to firmly build the primary and secondary marine industries, the government should actively guide the labor, capital and other factors of production to the tertiary industry, thereby promoting the optimization and upgrading of marine industrial structure.

On the one hand, the interplay mechanism of marine scientific research and education, industrial structure upgrading and marine economic growth is analyzed from a systematic perspective; on the other hand, the enhanced AWBO-MGM(1,m) possesses higher forecasting performance and is applicable to the systemic multivariate forecasting problem in the presence of outstanding external shocks.

Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey systems in marine economics is gaining importance. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and review literature on grey models, providing new directions in their application in the marine economy.

This paper organized seminal studies on grey systems published by Chinese core journal database – CNKI, Web of Science and Elsevier from 1982 to 2018. After searching the aforementioned database for the said duration, the authors used the CiteSpace visualization tools to analyze them.

The authors sorted the studies according to their countries/regions, institutions, keywords and categories using the CiteSpace tool; analyzed current research characteristics on grey models; and discussed their possible applications in marine businesses, economy, scientific research and education, marine environment and disasters. Finally, the authors pointed out the development trend of grey models.

Although researches are combining grey theory with fractals, neural networks, fuzzy theory and other methods, the applications, in terms of scope, have still not met the demand. With the increasingly in-depth research in marine economics and management, international marine economic research has entered a new period of development. Grey theory will certainly attract scholars’ attention, and its role in marine economy and management will gain considerable significance.

The purpose of this study is to quantify port efficiency assessment indicators to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Chinese One Belt One Road (OBOR) ports.

This study utilized a grey prediction model GM(1,1) to forecast five relevant indicators for each of the 17 OBOR ports both with and without COVID-19 background conditions. Additionally, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) efficiency assessment approach was used to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on port efficiency.

The results indicate that cargo and container throughput growth rates during the COVID-19 pandemic are reduced by 1.7 and 2.1%, respectively. There was also a noticeable reduction in technological efficiency (TE) as well as pure technological efficiency (PTE), while scale efficiency (SE) remained largely unaffected. Furthermore, the dynamic efficiency MI was mainly negatively impacted by changes in overall efficiency change (EFFCH), where pure efficiency change (PECH) less than one contributed significantly towards overall regression of port efficiencies during this period.

This paper is unique in its use of a combination of the grey prediction model and DEA efficiency assessment to quantify changes in important indicators during pandemic periods. This approach not only provides a quantitative understanding of the impact on port-level efficiency through numerical quantification but also offers readers an intuitive understanding.

The aim of this paper is to present the first diffusion analysis of ISO/IEC 27001, the fourth most popular ISO certification at global level and the most important standard for information security.

To achieve the purposes, the authors applied Grey Models (GM) – Even GM (1,1), Even GM (1,1,α,θ), Discrete GM (1,1), Discrete GM (1,1,α) – complemented by the relative growth rate and the doubling time indexes on the six most important countries in terms of issued certificates.

Results show that a growing trend is likely to be expected in the years to come and that China will lead at country level.

The study contributes to the scientific debate by presenting the first diffusive analysis of ISO/IEC 27001 and by proposing a forecasting approach that to date has found little application in the field of international standards.

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is one of the major pandemic diseases caused by a newly discovered virus that has been directly affecting the human respiratory system. Because of the gradually increasing magnitude of the COVID-19 pandemic across the world, it has been sparking emergencies and critical issues in the healthcare systems around the world. However, predicting the exact amount of daily reported new COVID cases is the most serious issue faced by governments around the world today. So, the purpose of this current study is to propose a novel hybrid grey exponential smoothing model (HGESM) to predicting transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak properly.

As a result of the complications relates to the traditional time series approaches, the proposed HGESM model is well defined to handle exponential data patterns in multidisciplinary systems. The proposed methodology consists of two parts as double exponential smoothing and grey exponential smoothing modeling approach respectively. The empirical analysis of this study was carried out on the basis of the 3rd outbreak of Covid-19 cases in Sri Lanka, from 1st March 2021 to 15th June 2021. Out of the total 90 daily observations, the first 85% of daily confirmed cases were used during the training, and the remaining 15% of the sample.

The new proposed HGESM is highly accurate (less than 10%) with the lowest root mean square error values in one head forecasting. Moreover, mean absolute deviation accuracy testing results confirmed that the new proposed model has given more significant results than other time-series predictions with the limited samples.

The findings suggested that the new proposed HGESM is more suitable and effective for forecasting time series with the exponential trend in a short-term manner.

The purpose of this paper is to produce an intelligent technique for modelling machine tool errors caused by the thermal distortion of Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine tools. A new metaheuristic method, the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm, based on the life of a bird family is proposed to optimize the GMC(1, N) coefficients. It is then used to predict thermal error on a small vertical milling centre based on selected sensors.

A Grey model with convolution integral GMC(1, N) is used to design a thermal prediction model. To enhance the accuracy of the proposed model, the generation coefficients of GMC(1, N) are optimized using a new metaheuristic method, called the CS algorithm.

The results demonstrate good agreement between the experimental and predicted thermal error. It can therefore be concluded that it is possible to optimize a Grey model using the CS algorithm, which can be used to predict the thermal error of a CNC machine tool.

An attempt has been made for the first time to apply CS algorithm for calibrating the GMC(1, N) model. The proposed CS-based Grey model has been validated and compared with particle swarm optimization (PSO) based Grey model. Simulations and comparison show that the CS algorithm outperforms PSO and can act as an alternative optmization algorithm for Grey models that can be used for thermal error compensation.

This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to manages.

Six different univariate methods, namely the classical decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey forecast, the hybrid grey model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), have been used.

The authors found that the grey forecast is a reliable forecasting method for crude oil prices.

The contribution of this research study is using a small size of data and comparing the forecasting results of the six univariate methods. Three commonly used evaluation criteria, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were adopted to evaluate the model performance. The outcome of this work can help predict the crude oil price.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of round pits arrangement patterns on tribological properties of journal bearing. In this paper, the tribological behaviors of journal bearing with different arrangement patterns under lubrication condition were studied based on M-2000 friction and wear tester.

The friction and wear of journal bearing contact surface were simulated by ANSYS. The wear mechanism of bearing contact surfaces was investigated by the means of energy dispersive spectrum analysis on the surface morphology and friction and wear status of the journal bearing specimens by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectrometer (EDS). Besides, the wearing capacity of the textured bearing was predicted by using the GM (1,1) and Grey–Markov model.

As the loads increase, the friction coefficient of journal bearing specimens decrease first and then increase slowly. The higher rotation speed, the lower friction coefficient and the faster temperature build-up. The main friction method of the bearing sample is three-body friction. The existence of texture can effectively reduce friction and wear. In many arrangement patterns, the best is 4# bearing with round pits cross-arrangement pattern. Its texturing diameters are 60 µm and 125 µm, and the spacing and depth are 200 µm and 25 µm, respectively. In addition, the Grey–Markov model prediction result is more accurate and fit the experimental value better.

The friction and wear mechanism is helpful for scientific research and engineers to understand the tribological behaviors and engineering applications of textured bearing. The wear capacity of textured bearing is predicted by using the Grey–Markov model, which provides technical help and theoretical guidance for the service life and reliability of textured bearing.

The purpose of this paper is to study how to effectively allocate water, energy and food (WEF) resources in urban development.

An agent-based model combined with NetLogo simulation model has been used in this paper.

This paper proposes a framework for agent analysis in urban WEF consumption.

Further discussions using empirical data are of great importance.

Apply to form the development model of the city in the future.

A new method of WEF management has been used at the city level.