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Inflation targeting started in 1990 and since then, many industrial and emerging market economies have adopted it. This chapter attempts to study the impact of adoption of inflation targeting on major macroeconomic outcomes across the emerging market countries, by running a panel data study from 1980 to 2018. This chapter obtains mixed results with respect to different macroeconomic indicators. The empirical results indicate that inflation targeting has been successful in bringing down inflation, inflation volatility and GDP growth rate volatility, while inconclusive results are obtained for volatility in exchange rates.

This paper seeks to revisit the highly debated trade‐growth hypothesis by considering the effects of trade and output volatility on the relationship between trade and economic growth.

The relationship is modeled by testing for the existence of output and trade (export and imports separately) using the conditional variances of the variables and then specifying an autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) process in a vector error correction model.

Using Singapore as a case study, the paper finds the two‐way relationship between export growth and trade‐adjusted GDP growth is robust even after controlling for the effects of income and export volatility. In addition, neither trade nor GDP volatility bears any impact on the bi‐directional causality between imports and unadjusted GDP growth thereby highlighting the crucial role of imports as intermediate inputs and embodying foreign technology in promoting economic growth. There is also evidence that output volatility impedes output and trade growth, while trade volatility exerts a negative influence on the trade‐adjusted income growth.

Ignoring the presence of trade and output volatility in modeling the trade‐growth relationship provides biased empirical results which have serious implications for trade‐oriented growth strategies that policy makers cannot afford to ignore.

This is the first attempt to explicitly model output, export and import volatility in empirically testing the trade‐growth hypothesis. Second, the robustness of the hypothesis is also tested by considering GDP and non‐trade GDP as it has been argued that use of GDP may lead to the problems of simultaneity and specification bias since exports and imports are themselves a component of GDP.

The purpose of this paper is to predict real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and business cycles by using information from both liquidity and volatility measures.

The paper estimates liquidity and volatility measures from over 5,000 NYSE rms and extracts a common factor, which the paper calls uncertainty. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to determine the ability of the uncertainty factor to predict growth in real GDP, industrial production, consumer price index, real consumption and changes in real investment.

The paper finds that on average, positive shocks to the uncertainty factor occur in the quarters preceding and at the beginning of a recession. During the quarters toward the end of recessions, there are negative shocks to uncertainty on average.

Previous research has explored using either liquidity or volatility to forecast economic activity. The paper bridges the two branches of research and finds a link to real GDP growth and business cycles.

This paper aims to test the volatility and analyses the macroeconomic determinants of house price volatility in Namibia over the period 2007 Quarter 1 to 2017 Quarter 2. It further explores the causal relations between house price volatility and its determinants.

The study used autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models to test for volatility. The vector error correction model was used to analyse the determinants and causal relations.

The results support the hypothesis that house prices in Namibia exhibits persistent volatility. It was further established that past period volatility’ GDP and mortgage loans are the key determinants of house price volatility. Additionally’ there exists unidirectional causality from GDP and mortgage loans to house price volatility.

Policy implications emanating from the study implies that macroeconomic fundamentals should be monitored closely to mitigate the issues of house price volatility.

The study is the first of its kind in Namibia to address the pertinent issues of ever increasing housing prices.

This paper aims to examine the relationship between the conditional variance of the factors from the Fama–French three‐factor model and macroeconomic risk, where macroeconomic risk is proxied by the conditional variance for a default risk premium and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

A generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model is used to generate the conditional volatilities and bivariate Granger causality tests are used to examine the empirical relationship between the risk measures.

Past values of the conditional variance for a default risk premium have information that is precedent to the conditional volatility for value premium and the small stock risk premium, and the conditional variance for the market risk premium has information about the future volatility of macroeconomic risk, as proxied by the conditional variance for GDP growth.

The implications are that conditional volatility associated with default is related to current and future volatility in value premium; however, volatility associated with the market risk premium appears to be a predictor of future macroeconomic risk. A caveat is that the results are dependent on the proxies used for macroeconomic risk and more refined measures of macroeconomic risk may yield different results.

This paper suggests that examination of the relationship between the volatility of macroeconomic factors and the explanatory factors in asset‐pricing models will help to further understanding of the relationship between risk and expected return.

This paper focuses directly on the links between risk associated with the Fama–French factors and macroeconomic risk. This added knowledge is beneficial to practitioners and academics whose interest lies in asset price modelling.

This paper aims to explore factors influencing apartment price volatility in the two biggest cities in Vietnam, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

The study uses the supply and demand approach and provides a literature review of previous studies to develop four main hypotheses using four determinants of apartment price volatility in Vietnam: gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, lending interest rate and construction cost. Subsequently, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to analyze a monthly data sample of 117.

The research highlights the important role of construction costs in apartment price volatility in the two largest cities. Moreover, there are significant differences in how all four determinants affect apartment price volatility in the two cities. In addition, there is a long-run relationship between the determinants and apartment price volatility in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Limitations related to data transparency of the real estate industry in Vietnam lead to three main limitations of this paper, including: this paper only collects a sample of 117 valid monthly observations; apartment price volatility is calculated by changes in the apartment price index instead of apartment price standard deviation; and this paper is limited by only four determinants, those being GDP, inflation rate, lending interest rate and construction cost.

The study provides evidence of differences in how the above determinants affect apartment price volatility in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, which helps investors and policymakers to make informed decisions relating to the real estate market in the two biggest cities in Vietnam.

This paper makes several recommendations to policymakers and investors in Vietnam to ensure a stable real estate market, contributing to the stability of the national economy.

This paper provides a new approach using VECM to analyze both long-run and short-run relationships between macroeconomic and sectoral independent variables and apartment price volatility in the two biggest cities in Vietnam.

This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth.

As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution.

The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth.

The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.

The impact of remittances on household consumption stability and economic growth is not quite clear. This paper attempts to reopen the debate on the relationship among these three variables. The current remittance literature suggests that a decrease in household consumption volatility, induced by remittances, automatically leads to economic growth. This paper challenges these arguments by stating that, under certain circumstances, there is no automatic relationship among remittances, household consumption stability and growth.

The authors approach the question from the perspective of emerging Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. The authors use the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator with the Windmeijer (2005) finite-sample correction. To test the existence of the possible non-linear effects of remittances on household consumption stability and economic growth, the authors use threshold regressions.

The authors find that remittances significantly reduce household consumption volatility. They exhibit a consumption-smoothing effect on recipient households. This stabilizing effect happens not through the preventive role of remittances, but rather through their compensatory role. Remittances produce a weaker stabilizing effect on household consumption when the remittance to GDP ratio of the recipient country is above the estimated threshold level of 4.5%. The authors also find that there is a negatively significant and linear impact of remittances on growth. There is no evidence to suggest that remittances can foster productive investment and therefore promote economic growth in CESEE countries, which means that: (1) the remittances cannot be treated as a source of funds to invest in human and physical capital and (2) the remittances are compensatory rather than profit-oriented.

As far as the authors are aware, this is the first study that investigates the impact of remittances on both household consumption stability and economic growth simultaneously.

Remittances are the fastest growing source of foreign exchange earnings for developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of remittances on economic volatility of the receiving country.

A panel of 95 countries over the period 1970‐2005 is employed in the analysis. To assess the impact of remittances on volatility a multivariate model is estimated using a panel fixed effects approach with cross‐section weights.

The study reports that remittances can play a key role in mitigating the effect of adverse output shocks but exert no significant influence on consumption and investment volatility. Moreover, important differential impacts exist across the various country groupings.

Countries that are dependent on remittances may have to monitor and forecast future remittance flows and take these projections into account when making changes to either their monetary or fiscal policy stance.

The findings provided in this paper should be of use to policymakers in developing countries.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential link between remittances and economic volatility in small island developing states.

The paper estimates a panel data model using a database containing 20 small island developing states (SIDS) observed over annual intervals between 1986 and 2005.

The results suggest that, in general, remittance flows have a stabilising influence on output and investment volatility. However, given the importance of these flows to SIDS, the volatility of remittances also has a significant and positive impact on both investment and consumption volatility.

The policy implications of the study's findings is that SIDS (similar to how oil‐producing nations take oil price fluctuations into account when considering policy changes) may have to monitor and forecast future remittance flows and take these projections into account when making changes to either their monetary or fiscal policy stance.

Workers' remittances have grown dramatically worldwide, particularly in SIDS, where they constitute one of the main sources of foreign exchange. Given the importance of these flows to economic growth and development in these countries, this study examines the potential link between remittances and economic volatility.