Search results

In practical engineering, there are various sequences. The purpose of this paper is to improve and put forward a new model.

Based on the generalized accumulated generating operation, the paper improved the GM(1,1) cosine model and proposed the GAGM(1,1) cosine model.

It is found that the GAGM(1,1) cosine model can satisfy many kinds of periodic sequences and the precision of GAGM(1,1) cosine model is higher than the GM(1,1) model.

The paper shows that the GAGM(1,1) cosine model has important theoretic and practical significance.

In the face of complex and challenging economic and business environments, developing and implementing approaches to predict bankruptcy has become important for firms. Bankruptcy prediction can be regarded as a grey system problem because while factors such as the liquidity, solvency and profitability of a firm influence whether it goes bankrupt, the precise manner in which these factors influence the discrimination between failed and non-failed firms is uncertain. In view of the applicability of multivariate grey prediction models (MGPMs), this paper aimed to develop a grey bankruptcy prediction model (GBPM) based on the GM (1, N) (BP-GM (1, N)).

As the traditional GM (1, N) is designed for time series forecasting, it is better to find an appropriate permutation of firms in the financial data as if the resulting sequences are time series. To solve this challenging problem, this paper proposes GBPMs by integrating genetic algorithms (GAs) into the GM (1, N).

Experimental results obtained for the financial data of Taiwanese firms in the information technology industries demonstrated that the proposed BP-GM (1, N) performs well.

Among artificial intelligence (AI)-based techniques, GBPMs are capable of explaining which of the financial ratios has a stronger impact on bankruptcy prediction by driving coefficients.

Applying MGPMs to a problem without relation to time series is challenging. This paper focused on bankruptcy prediction, a crucial issue in financial decision-making for businesses, and proposed several GBPMs.

The purpose of this paper is to propose novel civil aircraft cost parameters’ selection method and novel cost estimation approach for civil aircraft so as to effectively simulate or forecast civil aircraft cost under poor information and small sample.

Based on existent cost estimation indexes, this paper summarized civil aircraft research and manufacturing cost impact index system and adopted grey relational model to select most important impact factors. Consider civil aircrafts’ cost information could not be easily collected, the author must estimate their costs with limited sample and poor information. A combination model of GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm is proposed. Both advantages of simulation of BP neural network algorithm and poor information generation of GM (0, N) were effectively combined. Then steps of combined model were given out. Finally, nine types of aircrafts were used to test the validity of proposed model. As comparing with the traditional multiple linear regression model and simple GM (0, N) model, results indicated that proposed model can do the work better.

Grey relational model can be applied for parameters’ selection and combined GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm can estimate aircraft’s cost as well. Results show that novel combined model could get high forecasting accuracy.

Cost estimation is key problem in production management of civil aircraft. Effective cost management could promote competitiveness of aircraft manufacturing company. Proposed combined model can be applied for civil aircraft cost estimation. Similarly, it could be applied for other complex equipment cost estimation.

The paper succeeds in proposing grey relational model for cost parameters’ selection and constructing a combination model of GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm. Algorithm of the proposed model was discussed and steps were given out.