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1 – 10 of over 12000
Article
Publication date: 21 March 2023

Jasleen Kaur and Khushdeep Dharni

The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors…

Abstract

Purpose

The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors frequently use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Data mining techniques coupled with fundamental and technical analysis types have the potential to give satisfactory results for stock market prediction. In the current paper, an effort is made to investigate the accuracy of stock market predictions by using the combined approach of variables from technical and fundamental analysis for the creation of a data mining predictive model.

Design/methodology/approach

We chose 381 companies from the National Stock Exchange of India's CNX 500 index and conducted a two-stage data analysis. The first stage is identifying key fundamental variables and constructing a portfolio based on that study. Artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and decision tree J48 were used to build the models. The second stage entails applying technical analysis to forecast price movements in the companies included in the portfolios. ANN and SVM techniques were used to create predictive models for all companies in the portfolios. We also estimated returns using trading decisions based on the model's output and then compared them to buy-and-hold returns and the return of the NIFTY 50 index, which served as a benchmark.

Findings

The results show that the returns of both the portfolios are higher than the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy return. It can be concluded that data mining techniques give better results, irrespective of the type of stock, and have the ability to make up for poor stocks. The comparison of returns of portfolios with the return of NIFTY as a benchmark also indicates that both the portfolios are generating higher returns as compared to the return generated by NIFTY.

Originality/value

As stock prices are influenced by both technical and fundamental indicators, the current paper explored the combined effect of technical analysis and fundamental analysis variables for Indian stock market prediction. Further, the results obtained by individual analysis have also been compared. The proposed method under study can also be utilized to determine whether to hold stocks for the long or short term using trend-based research.

Article
Publication date: 7 January 2022

Tuan Ho, Y Trong Nguyen, Hieu Truong Manh Tran and Dinh-Tri Vo

The pupose of the paper is to study the usefulness of Piotroski (2000)'s F-score in separating winners and losers in Vietnam.

Abstract

Purpose

The pupose of the paper is to study the usefulness of Piotroski (2000)'s F-score in separating winners and losers in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adopt a portfolio analysis and regression analysis on a sample of 501 of listed firms between 2009 and 2019 in Vietnam.

Findings

The authors find that a hedge strategy that buys high-F-score firms and sells low-F-score firms yield market-adjusted return of over 30 percent annually, which is statistically and economically significant. The hedge strategy based on F-score is not only profitable for value (high book-to-market [BM]) firms but also earn abnormal returns in a sample of growth (low BM) firms, suggesting that the usefulness of F-score strategy is not just a phenomenon in value firms as documented in previous literature.

Research limitations/implications

Whilst the authors' paper documents economically significant returns obtained from the F-score strategy, the authors do not examine what drives the abnormal returns.

Practical implications

The results provide supporting evidence for the use of financial statement analysis as a screening tool to improve the performance of value investment in Vietnam stock market and for the training of financial reporting and fundamental analysis in universities.

Originality/value

The authors' research is the first study examining the F-score strategy in Vietnam that provides insights about the usefulness of fundamental analysis in separating winners and losers in a frontier market and contributes to the literature on fundamental analysis and market efficiency in emerging and frontier markets.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Te-Kuan Lee and Askar Koshoev

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is…

Abstract

Purpose

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.

Findings

The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.

Originality/value

In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 November 2022

Ruchi Kejriwal, Monika Garg and Gaurav Sarin

Stock market has always been lucrative for various investors. But, because of its speculative nature, it is difficult to predict the price movement. Investors have been using both…

1049

Abstract

Purpose

Stock market has always been lucrative for various investors. But, because of its speculative nature, it is difficult to predict the price movement. Investors have been using both fundamental and technical analysis to predict the prices. Fundamental analysis helps to study structured data of the company. Technical analysis helps to study price trends, and with the increasing and easy availability of unstructured data have made it important to study the market sentiment. Market sentiment has a major impact on the prices in short run. Hence, the purpose is to understand the market sentiment timely and effectively.

Design/methodology/approach

The research includes text mining and then creating various models for classification. The accuracy of these models is checked using confusion matrix.

Findings

Out of the six machine learning techniques used to create the classification model, kernel support vector machine gave the highest accuracy of 68%. This model can be now used to analyse the tweets, news and various other unstructured data to predict the price movement.

Originality/value

This study will help investors classify a news or a tweet into “positive”, “negative” or “neutral” quickly and determine the stock price trends.

Details

Vilakshan - XIMB Journal of Management, vol. 21 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0973-1954

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2023

Firda Nosita and Rifqi Amrulloh

The authors believe the COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on supply and demand. The potential decline in real sector performance leads to lower expectations of securities…

Abstract

The authors believe the COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on supply and demand. The potential decline in real sector performance leads to lower expectations of securities performance. The uncertainty of future performance can change investor behaviour. This study tried to gain insight into stock investor behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results showed that the majority of the investor realized and believed the pandemic would affect the stock market performance. Hence, they did not show herding behaviour and were very confident during the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey also indicates that investors tend to avoid risk rather than take the opportunity to buy at a lower price. Moreover, investors believe that the COVID-19 vaccine will soon be found, and the economy will return to normal. Government and self-regulated organizations (SRO) are responsible for making effective policies to convince the investors about the future prospect.

Details

Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from SEA
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-285-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Jaspreet Kaur

This study aims to determine experimentally factors affecting the satisfaction of retail stock investors with various investor protection regulatory measures implemented by the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to determine experimentally factors affecting the satisfaction of retail stock investors with various investor protection regulatory measures implemented by the Government of India and Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). Also, an effort has been made to gauge the level of satisfaction of retail equities investors with the laws and guidelines developed by the Indian Government and SEBI for their invested funds.

Design/methodology/approach

To accomplish the study’s goals, a well-structured questionnaire was created with the help of a literature review, and copies of it were filled by Punjabi retail equities investors with the aid of stockbrokers, i.e. intermediaries. Amritsar, Jalandhar, Ludhiana and Mohali-area intermediaries were chosen using a random selection procedure. Xerox copies of the questionnaire were given to the intermediaries, who were then asked to collect responses from their clients. Some intermediaries requested the researcher to sit in their offices to collect responses from their clients. Only 373 questionnaires out of 1,000 questionnaires that were provided had been received back. Only 328 copies were correctly filled by the equity investors. To conduct the analysis, 328 copies, which were fully completed, were used as data. The appropriate approaches, such as descriptives, factor analysis and ordinal regression analysis, were used to study the data.

Findings

With the aid of factor analysis, four factors have been identified that influence investors’ satisfaction with various investor protection regulatory measures implemented by government and SEBI regulations, including regulations addressing primary and secondary market dealings, rules for investor awareness and protection, rules to prevent company malpractices and laws for corporate governance and investor protection. The impact of these four components on investor satisfaction has been investigated using ordinal regression analysis. The pseudo-R-square statistics for the ordinal regression model demonstrated the model’s capacity for the explanation. The findings suggested that a significant amount of the overall satisfaction score about the various investor protection measures implemented by the government/SEBI has been explained by the regression model.

Research limitations/implications

A study could be conducted to analyse the perspective of various stakeholders towards the disclosures made and norms followed by corporate houses. The current study may be expanded to cover the entire nation because it is only at the state level currently. It might be conceivable to examine how investments made in the retail capital market affect investors in rural areas. The influence of reforms on the functioning of stock markets could potentially be examined through another study. It could be possible to undertake a study on female investors’ knowledge about retail investment trends. The effect of digital stock trading could be examined in India. The effect of technological innovations on capital markets can be studied.

Practical implications

This research would be extremely useful to regulators in developing policies to protect retail equities investors. Investors are required to be safeguarded and protected to deal freely in the securities market, so they should be given more freedom in terms of investor protection measures. Stock exchanges should have the potential to bring about technological advancements in trading to protect investors from any kind of financial loss. Since the government has the power to create rules and regulations to strengthen investor protection. So, this research will be extremely useful to the government.

Social implications

This work has societal ramifications. Because when adequate rules and regulations are in place to safeguard investors, they will be able to invest freely. Companies will use capital wisely and profitably. Companies should undertake tasks towards corporate social responsibility out of profits because corporate houses are part and parcel of society only.

Originality/value

Many investors may lack the necessary expertise to make sound financial judgments. They might not be aware of the entire risk-reward profile of various investment options. However, they must know various investor protection measures taken by the Government of India & Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to safeguard their interests. Investors must be well-informed on the precautions to take while dealing with market intermediaries, as well as in the stock market.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Daniel Werner Lima Souza de Almeida, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior, Luiz Eduardo Gaio and Fabiano Guasti Lima

This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.

Design/methodology/approach

The event study technique was used on data from 518 events that occurred in a 30-year period (1987–2016), comprising 167 stock splits and 351 reverse stock splits.

Findings

The results revealed the occurrence of abnormal returns around the time the shares began trading stock splits or reverse stock splits at a statistical significance level of 5%. The main conclusion is that stock split and reverse stock split operations represent opportunities for extraordinary gains and may serve as a reference for investment strategies in the Brazilian stock market.

Originality/value

This study innovates by including reverse stock splits, as the existing literature focuses on stock splits, and by testing two distinct “zero” dates that of the ordinary general meeting that approved the share alteration and the “ex” date of the alteration, when the shares were effectively traded, reverse split or split.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 October 2023

Abdelhadi Ifleh and Mounime El Kabbouri

The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in…

Abstract

Purpose

The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in attractive SMs. This article aims to apply a correlation feature selection model to identify important technical indicators (TIs), which are combined with multiple deep learning (DL) algorithms for forecasting SM indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves using a correlation feature selection model to select the most relevant features. These features are then used to predict the fluctuations of six markets using various DL algorithms, and the results are compared with predictions made using all features by using a range of performance measures.

Findings

The experimental results show that the combination of TIs selected through correlation and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) provides good results in the MADEX market. The combination of selected indicators and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) in the NASDAQ 100 market outperforms all other combinations of variables and models. In other markets, the combination of all variables with ANN provides the best results.

Originality/value

This article makes several significant contributions, including the use of a correlation feature selection model to select pertinent variables, comparison between multiple DL algorithms (ANN, CNN and Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM)), combining selected variables with algorithms to improve predictions, evaluation of the suggested model on six datasets (MASI, MADEX, FTSE 100, SP500, NASDAQ 100 and EGX 30) and application of various performance measures (Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) and Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE)).

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2022

Maqsood Ahmad, Qiang Wu and Yasar Abbass

This study aims to explore and clarify the mechanism by which recognition-based heuristic biases influence the investment decision-making and performance of individual investors…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore and clarify the mechanism by which recognition-based heuristic biases influence the investment decision-making and performance of individual investors, with the mediating role of fundamental and technical anomalies.

Design/methodology/approach

The deductive approach was used, as the research is based on behavioral finance's theoretical framework. A questionnaire and cross-sectional design were employed for data collection from the sample of 323 individual investors trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Hypotheses were tested through the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique.

Findings

The article provides further insights into the relationship between recognition-based heuristic-driven biases and investment management activities. The results suggest that recognition-based heuristic-driven biases have a markedly positive influence on investment decision-making and negatively influence the investment performance of individual investors. The results also suggest that fundamental and technical anomalies mediate the relationships between the recognition-based heuristic-driven biases on the one hand and investment management activities on the other.

Practical implications

The results of the study suggested that investment management activities that rely on recognition-based heuristics would not result in better returns to investors. The article encourages investors to base decisions on investors' financial capability and experience levels and to avoid relying on recognition-based heuristics when making decisions related to investment management activities. The results provides awareness and understanding of recognition-based heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities, which could be very useful for decision-makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating the expensive errors that occur due to recognition-based heuristic-driven biases.

Originality/value

The current study is the first to focus on links recognition-based heuristic-driven biases, fundamental and technical anomalies, investment decision-making and performance of individual investors. This article enhanced the understanding of the role that recognition-based heuristic-driven biases plays in investment management. More importantly, the study went some way toward enhancing understanding of behavioral aspects and the aspects' influence on investment decision-making and performance in an emerging market.

Article
Publication date: 26 May 2023

Alona Shmygel and Martin Hoesli

The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present a framework for the assessment of the fundamental value of house prices in the largest Ukrainian cities, as well as to identify the thresholds, the breach of which would signal a bubble.

Design/methodology/approach

House price bubbles are detected using two approaches: ratios and regression analysis. Two variants of each method are considered. The authors calculate the price-to-rent and price-to-income ratios that can identify a possible overvaluation or undervaluation of house prices. Then, the authors perform regression analyses by considering individual multi-factor models for each city and by using a within regression model with one-way (individual) effects on panel data.

Findings

The only pronounced and prolonged period of a house price bubble is the one that coincides with the Global Financial Crisis. The bubble signals produced by these methods are, on average, simultaneous and in accordance with economic sense.

Research limitations/implications

The framework described in this paper can serve as a model for the implementation of a tool for detecting house price bubbles in other countries with emerging, small and open economies, due to adjustments for high inflation and significant dependence on reserve currencies that it incorporates.

Practical implications

A tool for measuring fundamental house prices and a bubble indicator for housing markets will be used to monitor the systemic risks stemming from the real estate market. Thus, it will help the National Bank of Ukraine maintain financial stability.

Social implications

The framework presented in this research will contribute to the enhancement of the systemic risk analysis toolkit of the National Bank of Ukraine. Therefore, it will help to prevent or mitigate risks that might originate in the real estate market.

Originality/value

The authors show how to implement an instrument for detecting house price bubbles in Ukraine. This will become important in the context of the after-war reconstruction of Ukraine, with mortgages potentially becoming the main tool for the financing of the rebuilding/renovation of the residential real estate stock.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 12000