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Eased travel to China will have limited success

Location:

CHINA

Measures include relaxed visa requirements and improved payment options. Visitors from some European and South-east Asian countries have joined a group of 17 other countries that…

China’s South-east Asian defence ties face constraints

Location:

CHINA

South-east Asia is a key theatre in which Chinese-US strategic rivalry plays out. Beijing is counting on regional defence diplomacy to help it push back against the United States…

Lack of clarity hinders China's diplomacy

Location:

CHINA

This makes it hard to understand in detail what China’s position is on an issue so that progress can be made dealing with it. This, and other weaknesses in the way Beijing…

A second-term Trump may avoid military confrontations

Location:

UNITED STATES

Although the comments formed a small section of a wide-ranging campaign speech, they have increased fears that US security guarantees will become unreliable if Trump wins back the…

France’s Macron shifts focus to elections

Location:

FRANCE

Macron hopes Attal can rescue his centrist alliance from a defeat by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in the EU elections in June. In the longer term, he has anointed…

Taliban-Shia tensions will rise in Afghanistan

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

In 2022, the community’s Ashura observances passed off relatively smoothly under Taliban protection. The Taliban said this year that restrictions were necessary to ensure security…

South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

Location:

CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Arctic neighbours will approach Russia cautiously

Location:

ARCTIC

Norwegian armed forces’ chief of operations Lieutenant-General Yngve Odlo hosted Lieutenant-General Stanislav Maslov, head of the Western Arctic Border Directorate of the Russian…

Afghanistan’s marginalised groups face increasing woes

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban have increasingly fraught relations not only with Shia, most of whom are ethnic Hazaras, but also with other marginalised communities, including Salafis -- a small…