A second-term Trump may avoid military confrontations

Significance

Although the comments formed a small section of a wide-ranging campaign speech, they have increased fears that US security guarantees will become unreliable if Trump wins back the presidency in November.

Impacts

• Russian President Vladimir Putin will seek to capitalise on Trump’s comments and the doubts they cast on US commitment to European defence.
• Trump’s rhetoric also signals to US allies beyond Europe that they may need to bear greater responsibility for their own security.
• Adversaries in other regions will see the campaign period as an opportunity to test US resolve and push boundaries of tolerated behaviour.