China’s South-east Asian defence ties face constraints

Significance

South-east Asia is a key theatre in which Chinese-US strategic rivalry plays out. Beijing is counting on regional defence diplomacy to help it push back against the United States and create an alternative, China-led security order, but it faces a tough challenge to build strategic trust, and its arms sales to the region are falling.

Impacts

• China will focus on expanding its military engagements in the region from bilateral to multilateral exercises.
• US military ties with the Philippines, an ally to Washington, as well as Singapore, Indonesia and Vietnam will strengthen.
• Military engagements between China and the South-east Asian claimants in the South China Sea will not ease tensions in those waters.