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This study aims to examine the ability of clean energy stocks to provide cover for investors against market risks related to climate change and disturbances in the oil market.

The study adopts the feasible quasi generalized least squares technique to estimate a predictive model based on Westerlund and Narayan’s (2015) approach to evaluating the hedging effectiveness of clean energy stocks. The out-of-sample forecast evaluations of the oil risk-based and climate risk-based clean energy predictive models are explored using Clark and West’s model (2007) and a modified Diebold & Mariano forecast evaluation test for nested and non-nested models, respectively.

The study finds ample evidence that clean energy stocks may hedge against oil market risks. This result is robust to alternative measures of oil risk and holds when applied to data from the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, the hedging effectiveness of clean energy against climate risks is limited to 4 of the 6 clean energy indices and restricted to climate risk measured with climate policy uncertainty.

The study contributes to the literature by providing extensive analysis of hedging effectiveness of several clean energy indices (global, the United States (US), Europe and Asia) and sectoral clean energy indices (solar and wind) against oil market and climate risks using various measures of oil risk (WTI (West Texas intermediate) and Brent volatility) and climate risk (climate policy uncertainty and energy and environmental regulation) as predictors. It also conducts forecast evaluations of the clean energy predictive models for nested and non-nested models.

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.

This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.

First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.

The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.

The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.

The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.

This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

Financial market holds superior information that can give insights into the future trajectory of economic growth. Further, identifying sectors that hold the key to future economic growth is important for all economies, but particularly relevant to emerging markets. However, unlike existing studies, the paper provides new insights into the forward-oriented nexus between financial markets and economic growth.

This paper takes a forward-looking approach of using financial market information to predict future economic growth. The authors use ARDL modeling approach to predict economic growth using the information from stock market sectoral returns.

The authors find that sectoral stock returns significantly improve economic growth forecasts. However, the forecasting superiority is not uniform across sectors and horizons. Auto, consumers' spending, materials and realty sectors provide the most forecasting gains. In contrast, banking, capital goods and industrial sectors provide superior forecasts, but only at horizons beyond one year. The authors also find that the forecast superiority of sectors at longer horizons is inversely related to volatility.

Research highlights the need for sector-focused policy actions in driving economic growth. Further, the findings of the paper identify sectors that drive short-, medium- and long-term economic growth.

There is a significant heterogeneity among different sectors and across horizons in predicting economic growth. Results suggest that targeted policy actions in sectors like materials, metals, oil and gas, and realty are key in driving economic growth. Further, policies geared toward the grassroots industries are at least as beneficial as the large-scale industries. Evidence also suggests the need for an active fiscal policy to address infrastructural bottlenecks in primary industries like basic materials and energy. Evidence nevertheless does not undermine the role of monetary policy actions.

Unlike any paper till date, the innovation of the paper is that it takes an ARDL modeling approach to measure stock market sectoral returns' ability to forecast economic growth several months ahead in the future. Though the paper considers the Indian case, the innovation and contribution extents to the entire field of economic studies.

This paper aims to investigate and formulate several business models (BM) for various energy communities (EC) members: prosumers, storage facilities, electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, aggregators and local markets.

One of the flexibility drivers is triggered by avoiding the cost and maximizing value that consists of delivering a service such as increasing generation or reducing consumption when it is valued most. The transition to greener economies led to the emergence of aggregators that aggregate bits of flexibility and handle the interest of their providers, e.g. small entities such as consumers, prosumers and other small service providers. On one hand, the research method consists of formulating six BM and implementing a BM that includes several consumers and an aggregator, namely, scheduling the household electricity consumption (downstream) and using flexibility to obtain revenue or avoid the cost. This is usually performed by reducing or shifting the consumption from peak to off-peak hours when the energy is cheaper. Thus, the role of aggregators in EC is significant as they intermediate small-scale energy threads and large entities' requirements, such as grid operators or retailers. On the other hand, in the proposed BM, the aggregators' strategy (upstream) will be to minimize the cost of electricity procurement using consumers’ flexibility. They set up markets to buy flexibility that is valued as long as their costs are reduced.

Interesting insights are revealed, such as when the flexibility price doubles, the deficit coverage increases from 62% to 91% and both parties, consumers and retailers obtain financial benefits from the local market.

One of the limitations of using the potential of flexibility is related to the high costs that are necessary to implement direct load control. Another issue is related to the data privacy aspects related to the breakdown of electricity consumption. Furthermore, data availability for scientific research is limited. However, this study expects that new BM for various EC members will emerge in the future largely depending on Information Communications and Technology developments.

An implementation of a local flexibility market (LFM) using 114 apartments with flexible loads is proposed, demonstrating the gains obtained from trading flexibility. For LFM simulation, this study considers exemplifying a BM using 114 apartments located in a multi-apartment building representing a small urban EC situated in the New England region in North America. Open data recorded in 2016 is provided by UMassTraceRepository.

As a novelty, six BM are proposed considering a bottom-up approach and including various EC members.

This study is a targeted review of some of the major changes in European regulation that guided energy policy decisions in the Iberian Peninsula and how they may have aggravated the problem of lack of flexibility. This study aims to assess some of the proposed short-term solutions to address this issue considering the underlying root causes and suggests a different course of action, that in turn, could help alleviate future market strains.

The evolution of the most important (macro) energy and price-related variables in both Portugal and Spain is assessed using market and grid operator data. In addition, the authors present critical viewpoints on some of the most recent EU and national regulation changes (official document analysis).

The Iberian energy policy and regulatory agenda has successfully promoted a rapid adoption of renewables (main goal), although with insufficient diversification of generation technologies. The compulsory closings of thermal plants and an increased tax (mainly carbon) added pressure toward more environmentally friendly thermal power plants. However, inevitably, this curbed the bidding price competitiveness of these producers in an already challenging market framework. Moving forward, decisions must be based on “a bigger picture” that does not neglect system flexibility and security of supply and understands the specificities of the Iberian market and its generation portfolio.

This work provides an original account of unprecedented spikes in energy prices in 2021, specifically in the Iberian electricity market. This acute situation worries consumers, industry and governments. Underlining the instability of the market prices, for the first time, this study discusses how some of the most important regulatory changes, and their perception and absorption by involved parties, contributed to the current environment. In addition, this study stresses that if flexibility is overlooked, the overall purpose of having an affordable and reliable system is at risk.

In this paper, we aim to provide an extensive analysis to understand how various factors influence electricity prices in competitive markets, focusing on the day-ahead electricity market in Romania.

Our study period began in January 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, and continued for several months after the onset of the war in Ukraine. During this time, we also consider other challenges like reduced market competitiveness, droughts and water scarcity. Our initial dataset comprises diverse variables: prices of essential energy sources (like gas and oil), Danube River water levels (indicating hydrological conditions), economic indicators (such as inflation and interest rates), total energy consumption and production in Romania and a breakdown of energy generation by source (coal, gas, hydro, oil, nuclear and renewable energy sources) from various data sources. Additionally, we included carbon certificate prices and data on electricity import, export and other related variables. This dataset was collected via application programming interface (API) and web scraping, and then synchronized by date and hour.

We discover that the competitiveness significantly affected electricity prices in Romania. Furthermore, our study of electricity price trends and their determinants revealed indicators of economic health in 2019 and 2020. However, from 2021 onwards, signs of a potential economic crisis began to emerge, characterized by changes in the normal relationships between prices and quantities, among other factors. Thus, our analysis suggests that electricity prices could serve as a predictive index for economic crises. Overall, the Granger causality findings from 2019 to 2022 offer valuable insights into the factors driving energy market dynamics in Romania, highlighting the importance of economic policies, fuel costs and environmental regulations in shaping these dynamics.

We combine principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dataset’s dimensionality. Following this, we use continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to explore frequency-domain relationships between electricity price and quantity in the day-ahead market (DAM) and the components derived from PCA. Our research also delves into the competitiveness level in the DAM from January 2019 to August 2022, analyzing the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI).

Electricity plays an essential role in nations' economic development. However, coal and renewables currently play an important part in electricity production in major world economies. The current study aims to forecast the electricity production from coal and renewables in the USA, China and Japan.

Two intelligent grey forecasting models – optimized discrete grey forecasting model DGM (1,1,α), and optimized even grey forecasting model EGM (1,1,α,θ) – are used to forecast electricity production. Also, the accuracy of the forecasts is measured through the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Coal-powered electricity production is decreasing, while renewable energy production is increasing in the major economies (MEs). China's coal-fired electricity production continues to grow. The forecasts generated by the two grey models are more accurate than that by the classical models EGM (1,1) and DGM (1,1) and the exponential triple smoothing (ETS).

The study confirms the reliability and validity of grey forecasting models to predict electricity production in the MEs.

Since crude oil is crucial to the nation's economic growth, crude oil futures are closely related to many other markets. Accurate forecasting can offer investors trustworthy guidance. Numerous studies have begun to consider creating new metrics from social networks to improve forecasting models in light of their rapid development. To improve the forecasting of crude oil futures, the authors suggest an integrated model that combines investor sentiment and attention.

This study first creates investor attention variables using Baidu search indices and investor sentiment variables for medium sulfur crude oil (SC) futures by collecting comments from financial forums. The authors feed the price series into the NeuralProphet model to generate a new feature set using the output subsequences and predicted values. Next, the authors use the CatBoost model to extract additional features from the new feature set and perform multi-step predictions. Finally, the authors explain the model using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values and examine the direction and magnitude of each variable's influence.

The authors conduct forecasting experiments for SC futures one, two and three days in advance to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The empirical results show that the model is a reliable and effective tool for predicting, and including investor sentiment and attention variables in the model enhances its predictive power.

The data analyzed in this paper span from 2018 through 2022, and the forecast objectives only apply to futures prices for those years. If the authors alter the sample data, the experimental process must be repeated, and the outcomes will differ. Additionally, because crude oil has financial characteristics, its price is influenced by various external circumstances, including global epidemics and adjustments in political and economic policies. Future studies could consider these factors in models to forecast crude oil futures price volatility.

In conclusion, the proposed integrated model provides effective multistep forecasts for SC futures, and the findings will offer crucial practical guidance for policymakers and investors. This study also considers other relevant markets, such as stocks and exchange rates, to increase the forecast precision of the model. Furthermore, the model proposed in this paper, which combines investor factors, confirms the predictive ability of investor sentiment. Regulators can utilize these findings to improve their ability to predict market risks based on changes in investor sentiment. Future research can improve predictive effectiveness by considering the inclusion of macro events and further model optimization. Additionally, this model can be adapted to forecast other financial markets, such as stock markets and other futures products.

The authors propose a novel integrated model that considers investor factors to enhance the accuracy of crude oil futures forecasting. This method can also be applied to other financial markets to improve their forecasting efficiency.

Coal is a critical global energy source, and fluctuations in its price significantly impact related enterprises' profitability. This study aims to develop a robust model for predicting the coal price index to enhance coal purchase strategies for coal-consuming enterprises and provide crucial information for global carbon emission reduction.

The proposed coal price forecasting system combines data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. It addresses the challenge of merging low-resolution and high-resolution data by adaptively combining both types of data and filling in missing gaps through interpolation for internal missing data and self-supervision for initiate/terminal missing data. The system employs self-supervised learning to complete the filling of complex missing data.

The ensemble model, which combines long short-term memory, XGBoost and support vector regression, demonstrated the best prediction performance among the tested models. It exhibited superior accuracy and stability across multiple indices in two datasets, namely the Bohai-Rim steam-coal price index and coal daily settlement price.

The proposed coal price forecasting system stands out as it integrates data decomposition, semi-supervised feature engineering, ensemble learning and deep learning. Moreover, the system pioneers the use of self-supervised learning for filling in complex missing data, contributing to its originality and effectiveness.